🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Under 9.5
Twins @ Royals
AN 54% +20Circa 100% +40
6,078 bets conv 66
MLML+RL
Rangers ML -196
Giants @ Rangers
AN 92% +26Circa 57% +30
4,326 bets conv 69
MLML+RL
Athletics ML +115
Athletics @ Reds
AN 37% +15Circa 80% +36
7,653 bets
TOTAL
Over 9
Angels @ Orioles
AN 70% +18Circa 99% +32
7,007 bets conv 45
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 91% mon
Pirates
-167→-150
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
D-backs 85% mon
Padres
+150→+161
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
57%(32/56)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68%(38/56)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
43%(24/56)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
38%(21/55)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(21/37)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(4/6)
100%(6/6)
firm
62%(8/13)
77%(10/13)
build
58%(7/12)
75%(9/12)
flat
52%(13/25)
52%(13/25)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(21/37)
+$92
Moneyline
55%(6/11)
+$132
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(5/10)
−$41
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(9/13)
+$104
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (56 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 77%
-136→-129 sustained
-43
Athletics ML +115
AC
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 67%
-142→-118 sustained
-5
Tigers ML +105
AC
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 58%
8→7.5 sustained
-53
Under 7.5 -105
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 77%
-156→-141 sustained
+16
Angels ML +125
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 86%
-156→-140 sustained
+12
Marlins ML +125
ML
C
DK
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 64%
9→9.5 sustained
-8
Over 9.5 -110
Total
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Twins 78%
-149→-140 sustained
-30
Royals ML +125
Total
DK
Mets @ Guardians
ML
Guardians 77%
-155→-140 sustained
-18
Mets ML +125
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 85%
-158→-141 sustained
+10
Pirates ML +125
A
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 59%
8.5→7 sustained
-12
Under 7.5 -115
AC
DK
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Under 74%
8.5→9 sustained
-16
Over 9 -101
DK
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 60%
-156→-123 sustained
-36
Blue Jays ML +110
C
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 78%
-141→-135 sustained
-15
Athletics ML +115
DC
Action
White Sox @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 57%
9.5→9 sustained
+2
Under 9 -115
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 55%
8→7.5 sustained
+1
Under 7.5 -115
DC
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 70%
-128→-120 sustained
+18
Cubs +1.5 -100
Spread
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 57%
-156→-125 sustained
-8
Tigers ML +105
DC
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 83%
-149→-140 sustained
+8
Marlins ML +125
ML
D
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 55%
8.5→7.5 sustained
+1
Under 7.5 -115
DA
Circa
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 62%
-145→-128 sustained
-4
Blue Jays ML +110
D
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
TOTAL
Over 77%
11.5→11 sustained
-1
Under 11 -105
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 57%
-142→-120 sustained
-8
Tigers ML +105
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 84%
-250→-192 faded
-7
Cardinals ML +165
C
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 87%
-190→-164 faded
+4
Rockies ML +145
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 80%
-167→-150 faded
+11
Pirates ML +125
D
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 82%
+135→+143 faded
+4
Pirates +1.5 -170
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
D-backs 79%
+150→+161 faded
+11
Padres +1.5 -190
Action
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 79%
9.5→9 faded
-16
Under 9 -120
Circa
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 78%
-136→-129 faded
-15
Athletics ML +115
DA
Circa
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 74%
-235→-192 faded
+5
Cardinals ML +165
D
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Rays @ Rockies
TOTAL
Over 53%
11.5→11 sustained
+41
Under 11 -105
C
Action
White Sox @ Red Sox
SPREAD
Red Sox 64%
+150→+156 faded
+11
White Sox +1.5 -177
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 53%
9→8.5 sustained
+2
Under 9 -105
Spread
Circa
Giants @ Rangers
TOTAL
Over 55%
8→7.5 sustained
-1
Under 8 -110
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 88%
-161→-149 sustained
-1
Rockies ML +145
D
Circa
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 79%
9→8.5 sustained
-16
Under 9 -120
A
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles
Over 9
70 (+18)
99 (+32)
Circa money +32 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 99% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Athletics @ Reds
Athletics ML +115
37 (+15)
80 (+36)
Circa money +36 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
White Sox @ Red Sox
White Sox ML +119
38 (+12)
31 (+15)
Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUM
Marlins @ Braves
Over 9
62 (+14)
98 (+31)
Circa money +31 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Twins @ Royals
Under 9.5
54 (+20)
100 (+40)
Circa money +40 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; money 54% vs public tickets 34%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers -1.5
88 (+18)
8 (-42)
high volume
PREMIUM
Giants @ Rangers
Rangers ML -196
92 (+26)
57 (+30)
Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONG
Giants @ Rangers
Rangers -1.5
83 (+23)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Rays @ Rockies
Rays -1.5
93 (+9)
90 (+15)
Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Tigers @ Mariners
Under 7.5
66 (+15)
66 (+33)
Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners -1.5
66 (+18)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Padres @ D-backs
Under 9
37 (+16)
100 (+33)
Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles ML -151
✓
✓
81
85
+4
12▸❄
75
94
+19
34
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -135
✓
78
63
-15
–
56
20
-36
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -145
✓
✓
79
83
+4
41▸❄
82
98
+16
36
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -288
✓
88
95
+7
52▸❄
50
7
-43
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -200
✓
74
79
+5
18▸❄
63
6
-57
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -137
✓
74
62
-12
–
84
69
-15
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -150
✓
83
91
+8
48▸❄
85
28
-57
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Twins ML -151
68
51
-17
–
82
83
+1
17
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -150
✓
80
91
+11
23▸❄
83
13
-70
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers ML -200
✓
81
83
+2
–
42
30
-12
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers ML -196
✓
✓
66
92
+26
69▸❄
27
57
+30
54▸
✓
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros ML -131
✓
62
58
-4
–
73
71
-2
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays ML -168
✓
88
87
-1
–
58
45
-13
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Tigers ML +105
43
51
+8
53▸❄
58
28
-30
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -120
✓
77
85
+8
30❄
73
57
-16
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
85
95
+10
45▸❄
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
59
63
+4
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians -1.5
✓
78
89
+11
47▸❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
85
87
+2
38▸❄
–
22*❄
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
65
70
+5
39▸❄
75
12
-63
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
64
75
+11
46❄
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
89
96
+7
28❄
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
54
59
+5
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
82
86
+4
23▸❄
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers -1.5
✓
70
88
+18
29▸❄
50
8
-42
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
60
83
+23
81▸❄
–
–
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
55
53
-2
–
–
24*❄
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
✓
84
93
+9
45▸❄
75
90
+15
28
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
48
66
+18
38▸❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs -1.5
✓
79
90
+11
17▸❄
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Over 9
✓
52
70
+18
45▸❄
67
99
+32
13▸*❄
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9
74
74
+0
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Over 7.5
56
51
-5
–
67
99
+32
25*❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9
57
64
+7
37❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Over 8.5
52
68
+16
57❄
67
31
-36
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Over 9
✓
57
59
+2
21▸❄
33
52
+19
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Over 9
✓
48
62
+14
70▸❄
67
98
+31
25*❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9.5
✓
34
54
+20
66▸❄
60
100
+40
36
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Over 7.5
55
56
+1
29▸❄
40
13
-27
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Over 9
✓
53
55
+2
34❄
50
76
+26
47▸
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Over 8
55
54
-1
–
67
98
+31
40*❄
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Over 8.5
47
54
+7
41❄
50
21
-29
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Over 11
77
76
-1
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Under 7.5
✓
51
66
+15
41▸❄
33
66
+33
40▸*❄
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
79
63
-16
–
33
0
-33
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.