Updated 2:30 AM ET 62 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

No plays where both books agree right now.
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Dodgers @ CubsMLDodgers 90% monCubs-198→-190observed live
Pirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 93% monPirates-167→-150observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction

MatchupFirst pitchStatusScore (A–H) Closing money-fav (ML)ConvTrajectoryResult
Angels @ OriolesAug 4, 6:35 PMFinal1–3Orioles 81%18money side won ✓
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 4, 6:40 PMFinal0–5Phillies 97%58money side won ✓
Athletics @ RedsAug 4, 6:40 PMFinal4–5Reds 87%28money side won ✓
Mets @ GuardiansAug 4, 6:40 PMFinal6–2Guardians 75%26money side lost ✗
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 4, 7:05 PMFinal0–2Yankees 80%35money side won ✓
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 4, 7:10 PMFinal2–14Red Sox 66%0money side won ✓
Marlins @ BravesAug 4, 7:15 PMFinal2–4Braves 95%68money side won ✓
Pirates @ BrewersAug 4, 7:40 PMFinal2–4Brewers 93%23money side won ✓
Twins @ RoyalsAug 4, 7:40 PMFinal2–8Twins 84%56money side lost ✗
Giants @ RangersAug 4, 8:05 PMFinal4–5Rangers 93%81money side won ✓
Dodgers @ CubsAug 4, 8:05 PMFinal1–5Dodgers 90%26money side lost ✗
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 4, 8:10 PMFinal2–7Astros 56%0money side won ✓
Rays @ RockiesAug 4, 8:40 PMFinal9–7Rays 94%49money side won ✓
Tigers @ MarinersAug 4, 9:40 PMFinal8–0Mariners 70%0money side lost ✗
Padres @ D-backsAug 4, 9:40 PMFinal9–4D-backs 90%58money side lost ✗

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
59% (42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66% (47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45% (32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41% (28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55% (27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam75% (6/8)100% (8/8)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build56% (9/16)62% (10/16)
flat57% (17/30)53% (16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM55% (27/49)+$87
Moneyline50% (7/14)+$99
Total · Over50% (1/2)−$3
Total · Under50% (8/16)−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)69% (11/16)+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
— none this slate —
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DKAthletics @ Reds FINALMLReds 76%-136→-129 sustained-38Athletics ML +115 ✗AC
DKTigers @ Mariners FINALMLMariners 57%-142→-118 sustained-42Tigers ML +105 ✓
DKAngels @ Orioles FINALMLOrioles 80%-156→-142 sustained+5Angels ML +127 ✗
DKDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 100%7.5→9.5 sustained+0Over 9 -110 ✗
DKMarlins @ Braves FINALMLBraves 86%-156→-131 sustained+10Marlins ML +125 ✗ML
DKTwins @ Royals FINALMLTwins 77%-149→-103 sustained-14Royals ML +125 ✓MLTotal
DKTwins @ Royals FINALTOTALUnder 67%9→9.5 sustained-33Over 9.5 -100 ✓MLTotal
DKMets @ Guardians FINALMLGuardians 78%-155→-103 sustained-6Mets ML +115 ✓C
DKPirates @ Brewers FINALMLBrewers 83%-158→-136 sustained+12Pirates ML +125 ✗A
DKPirates @ Brewers FINALTOTALOver 60%8.5→7.5 faded-21Under 7.5 -117 ✓AC
DKPadres @ D-backs FINALTOTALUnder 63%8.5→9 faded-23Over 9 -101 ✓
DKRays @ Rockies FINALTOTALOver 51%11.5→11 sustained+2Under 11 -109 ✗MLC
DKRays @ Rockies FINALMLRays 88%-190→-167 faded+2Rockies ML +147 ✗ML
DKBlue Jays @ Astros FINALMLAstros 60%-156→-136 faded-21Blue Jays ML +122 ✗
ActionAthletics @ Reds FINALMLReds 73%-141→-135 sustained+14Athletics ML +115 ✗DC
ActionNationals @ Phillies FINALTOTALOver 66%9→8.5 sustained+8Under 9 -120 ✓
ActionCardinals @ Yankees FINALTOTALOver 83%8.5→8 sustained+4Under 8 -110 ✓
ActionWhite Sox @ Red Sox FINALTOTALOver 77%9.5→9 sustained-2Under 9 -116 ✗
ActionWhite Sox @ Red Sox FINALSPREADRed Sox 72%+150→+156 faded+6White Sox +1.5 -165 ✗
ActionMarlins @ Braves FINALTOTALOver 60%9.5→9 sustained+6Under 9 -103 ✓ML
ActionPirates @ Brewers FINALTOTALOver 59%8→7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -117 ✓DC
ActionPirates @ Brewers FINALMLBrewers 82%-167→-150 faded+11Pirates ML +125 ✗D
ActionPirates @ Brewers FINALSPREADBrewers 79%+135→+144 faded+5Pirates +1.5 -171 ✗
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALSPREADDodgers 73%-128→-122 sustained+15Cubs +1.5 +102 ✓
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALMLDodgers 76%-198→-190 sustained+14Cubs ML +167 ✓
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALOver 82%9→8.5 sustained-1Under 9 -110 ✓
ActionTigers @ Mariners FINALMLMariners 53%-156→-125 sustained+17Tigers ML +105 ✓D
ActionTigers @ Mariners FINALTOTALOver 70%8.5→7.5 sustained-13Under 7.5 -100 ✗
ActionPadres @ D-backs FINALSPREADD-backs 75%+150→+156 faded-7Padres +1.5 -190 ✓
ActionPadres @ D-backs FINALTOTALOver 80%9.5→9 faded-9Under 9 -119 ✗
CircaAthletics @ Reds FINALMLReds 73%-136→-129 faded+14Athletics ML +115 ✗DA
CircaMets @ Guardians FINALMLGuardians 74%-145→+101 sustained+1Mets ML +115 ✓D
CircaCardinals @ Yankees FINALMLYankees 72%-235→-150 sustained+8Cardinals ML +175 ✗
CircaMarlins @ Braves FINALMLBraves 78%-149→-140 sustained+17Marlins ML +125 ✗MLD
CircaPirates @ Brewers FINALTOTALOver 59%8.5→7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -117 ✓DA
CircaGiants @ Rangers FINALTOTALOver 60%8→7.5 sustained-3Under 8 -110 ✗
CircaBlue Jays @ Astros FINALTOTALOver 81%9→8 sustained+1Under 8.5 -117 ✗
CircaBlue Jays @ Astros FINALMLAstros 59%-145→-128 sustained-3Blue Jays ML +122 ✗D
CircaRays @ Rockies FINALMLRays 80%-161→-149 sustained+14Rockies ML +147 ✗MLD
CircaRays @ Rockies FINALTOTALOver 79%11.5→11 sustained-2Under 11 -109 ✗ML
CircaTigers @ Mariners FINALMLMariners 53%-142→-120 sustained+17Tigers ML +105 ✓D
CircaTigers @ Mariners FINALTOTALOver 70%8→7.5 sustained-13Under 7.5 -100 ✗A
CircaPadres @ D-backs FINALTOTALOver 80%9→8.5 sustained-9Under 9 -119 ✗A
×

⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUMAngels @ Orioles FINALOver 9.5 ✗60 (+8)96 (+33)Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 96% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMMets @ Guardians FINALUnder 7.5 ✗48 (+9)61 (+28)Circa money +28 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONGWhite Sox @ Red Sox FINALRed Sox -1.5 ✓78 (+6)86 (+26)Circa money +26 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 86% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMTwins @ Royals FINALUnder 9.5 ✗54 (+19)98 (+48)Circa money +48 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; money 54% vs public tickets 35%; high volume
PREMIUMGiants @ Rangers FINALRangers ML -196 ✓93 (+28)56 (+27)Circa money +27 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONGGiants @ Rangers FINALRangers -1.5 ✗83 (+19) ()high volume
PREMIUMRays @ Rockies FINALRays -1.5 ✓91 (+10)90 (+15)Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; high volume
STRONGPadres @ D-backs FINALD-backs ML -125 ✗90 (+20) ()high volume; steaming +5 money% since prev

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ OriolesAug 4, 6:35 PM FINALOrioles ML -150 ✓✓7781+418▸6865-3–
Athletics @ RedsAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALReds ML -135 ✓✓7387+1428▸6836-32–
Mets @ GuardiansAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALGuardians ML -135 ✗✓7475+1268554-31–
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALPhillies ML -316 ✓✓✓9197+658▸4754+720▸
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 4, 7:05 PM FINALYankees ML -210 ✓✓7280+835▸❄607-53–
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 4, 7:10 PM FINALRed Sox ML -151 ✓✓7966-13–7786+933▸
Marlins @ BravesAug 4, 7:15 PM FINALBraves ML -151 ✓✓7895+1768▸❄8583-2–
Twins @ RoyalsAug 4, 7:40 PM FINALTwins ML -151 ✗6884+1656▸❄7560-15–
Pirates @ BrewersAug 4, 7:40 PM FINALBrewers ML -150 ✓✓8293+1123▸❄8535-50–
Dodgers @ CubsAug 4, 8:05 PM FINALDodgers ML -190 ✗✓7690+1426▸❄3632-4–
Giants @ RangersAug 4, 8:05 PM FINALRangers ML -196 ✓✓✓6593+2881▸❄2956+2735▸❄
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 4, 8:10 PM FINALAstros ML -143 ✓✓5956-3–6291+2985▸
Rays @ RockiesAug 4, 8:40 PM FINALRays ML -173 ✓✓8094+1449▸6446-18–
Tigers @ MarinersAug 4, 9:40 PM FINALMariners ML -125 ✗5370+17–––
Padres @ D-backsAug 4, 9:40 PM FINALD-backs ML -125 ✗✓7090+2058––

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ OriolesAug 4, 6:35 PM FINALOrioles -1.5 ✓✓8993+411▸801-79–
Athletics @ RedsAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALReds -1.5 ✗✓7467-7–––
Mets @ GuardiansAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALGuardians -1.5 ✗✓8189+84––
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALPhillies -1.5 ✓✓9193+226▸7769-8–
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 4, 7:05 PM FINALYankees -1.5 ✓✓6574+959▸❄8316-67–
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 4, 7:10 PM FINALRed Sox -1.5 ✓✓✓7278+638▸❄6086+2646
Marlins @ BravesAug 4, 7:15 PM FINALBraves -1.5 ✓✓8894+641▸❄––
Twins @ RoyalsAug 4, 7:40 PM FINALRoyals 1.5 ✓5160+9–––
Pirates @ BrewersAug 4, 7:40 PM FINALBrewers -1.5 ✓✓7984+522▸❄––
Dodgers @ CubsAug 4, 8:05 PM FINALDodgers -1.5 ✗✓7388+1524▸❄6721-46–
Giants @ RangersAug 4, 8:05 PM FINALRangers -1.5 ✗✓6483+1968▸❄––
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 4, 8:10 PM FINALAstros -1.5 ✓✓5558+340▸❄–24*❄
Rays @ RockiesAug 4, 8:40 PM FINALRays -1.5 ✓✓✓8191+1048▸7590+1528❄
Tigers @ MarinersAug 4, 9:40 PM FINALTigers 1.5 ✓6664-2–––
Padres @ D-backsAug 4, 9:40 PM FINALD-backs -1.5 ✗✓7568-7–––

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ OriolesAug 4, 6:35 PM FINALOver 9.5 ✗✓5260+811▸6396+3364▸
Athletics @ RedsAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALOver 9 P✓8386+3–8696+103▸*
Mets @ GuardiansAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALOver 7.5 ✓6152-9–6739-28–
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 4, 6:40 PM FINALOver 9 ✗✓6674+8388082+27▸
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 4, 7:05 PM FINALOver 8 ✗8387+419▸❄8061-19–
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 4, 7:10 PM FINALOver 9 ✓7775-2–6780+1318▸
Marlins @ BravesAug 4, 7:15 PM FINALOver 9 ✗6066+629▸❄5023-27–
Twins @ RoyalsAug 4, 7:40 PM FINALUnder 9.5 ✗✓3554+1966▸❄5098+4844❄
Pirates @ BrewersAug 4, 7:40 PM FINALOver 7.5 ✗5959+0–3311-22–
Dodgers @ CubsAug 4, 8:05 PM FINALOver 9 ✗8281-1–5051+1–
Giants @ RangersAug 4, 8:05 PM FINALOver 8 ✓6057-3–8099+1954❄
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 4, 8:10 PM FINALOver 8.5 ✓8182+13❄254-21–
Rays @ RockiesAug 4, 8:40 PM FINALOver 11 ✓7977-2–––
Tigers @ MarinersAug 4, 9:40 PM FINALOver 7.5 ✓7057-13––11
Padres @ D-backsAug 4, 9:40 PM FINALOver 9 ✓8071-9–––
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) ▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.