🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
Athletics ML +130
Athletics @ Reds
AN 38% +21Circa 84% +34
4,685 bets
TOTAL
Under 8.5
Padres @ D-backs
AN 49% +3Circa 100% +50
6,255 bets
ML
Tigers ML +137
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 57% +3Circa 78% +47
5,417 bets
MLML+RL
Cardinals ML +135
Cardinals @ Yankees
AN 34% +16Circa 83% +33
4,897 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 94% mon
Cubs
-192→+158
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 81% mon
Pirates
-210→+165
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 67% mon
D-backs
-222→+125
observed live
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 69% mon
Giants
-172→-158
observed live
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 79% mon
Blue Jays
-182→-115
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
59%(42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66%(47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41%(28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55%(27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
75%(6/8)
100%(8/8)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
57%(17/30)
53%(16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
55%(27/49)
+$87
Moneyline
50%(7/14)
+$99
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(8/16)
−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(11/16)
+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 68%
8→7.5 sustained
+32
Under 7.5 -110
C
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 78%
-142→-118 sustained
+10
Angels ML +105
AC
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 58%
-120→-113 sustained
-21
Twins ML +105
DK
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 63%
9.5→8.5 sustained
+34
Under 8.5 -100
DK
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 80%
-170→-147 sustained
+4
Giants ML +136
AC
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 85%
-167→-153 sustained
+5
Rockies ML +137
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Giants @ Rangers
SPREAD
Rangers 74%
+120→+126 sustained
+10
Giants +1.5 -153
Action
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 70%
-172→-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136
DC
Action
Angels @ Orioles
SPREAD
Orioles 81%
+145→+165 sustained
+2
Angels +1.5 -200
Action
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 87%
-135→-122 sustained
-37
Angels ML +105
DC
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Over 65%
9→8.5 sustained
-5
Under 8.5 -102
C
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 80%
-210→+165 sustained
+8
Pirates +1.5 -200
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 70%
-171→-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136
DA
Circa
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 87%
-136→-120 sustained
-37
Angels ML +105
DA
Circa
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Over 65%
9→8.5 sustained
-5
Under 8.5 -102
A
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 58%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -110
D
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 78%
-131→-122 faded
-13
Marlins ML +110
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 68%
-137→-127 faded
+7
Pirates ML +114
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 73%
-222→+125 faded
+8
Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 75%
-137→-129 sustained
-43
Athletics ML +130
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 50%
8.5→8 sustained
+5
Under 8 -103
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 91%
-126→-119 sustained
-3
White Sox ML +116
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 72%
-155→-140 sustained
-3
Tigers ML +137
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 64%
8→8.5 sustained
-57
Over 8 -105
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 83%
-156→-146 sustained
-39
Cardinals ML +135
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 88%
-174→-168 faded
-55
Nationals ML +169
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 74%
+135→+142 sustained
+9
Athletics +1.5 -155
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 83%
-155→-149 faded
-21
Athletics ML +130
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 82%
-156→-150 sustained
-16
Cardinals ML +135
Action
Twins @ Royals
SPREAD
Royals 70%
-184→+167 sustained
+9
Twins -1.5 +168
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Tigers 54%
+125→+137 sustained
+3
Mariners ML -155
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Under 66%
9.5→10 sustained
-64
Over 10 -105 live
Spread
AC
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros LIVE
TOTAL
Under 62%
7.5→8 sustained
-13
Over 8 -112 live
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros LIVE
SPREAD
Astros 86%
-182→-115 faded
+3
Blue Jays +1.5 -105 live
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
SPREAD
Dodgers 71%
-192→+158 sustained
+20
Cubs +1.5 -187 live
Spread
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5→10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 live
Spread
DC
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
ML
Dodgers 55%
+106→+112 sustained
+39
Cubs ML -115 live
Spread
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5→10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 live
Spread
DA
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Rays @ Rockies
Rockies 1.5
43 (+20)
10 (-23)
high volume
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles
Angels ML +105
50 (+37)
40 (+9)
Circa money +9 — sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUM
Athletics @ Reds
Athletics ML +130
38 (+21)
84 (+34)
Circa money +34 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 84% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians 1.5
62 (+11)
80 (+30)
Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -112
56 (+6)
87 (+9)
Circa money +9 — sharp book agrees; Circa 87% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Nationals @ Phillies
Nationals ML +169
17 (+8)
94 (+16)
Circa money +16 — sharp book agrees; Circa 94% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Cardinals @ Yankees
Cardinals ML +135
34 (+16)
83 (+33)
Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 83% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
White Sox @ Red Sox
Under 8
66 (+6)
64 (+14)
Circa money +14 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Pirates @ Brewers
Over 7
33 (+5)
26 (+9)
Circa money +9 — sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUM
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners -1.5
63 (+8)
91 (+16)
Circa money +16 — sharp book agrees; Circa 91% of handle here; high volume
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONG
Blue Jays @ Astros LIVE
Over 8 live
51 (+13)
38 (-29)
money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
Dodgers -1.5 live
91 (+20)
()
high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers ML -158
✓
70
69
-1
–
46
8
-38
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays ML -159
✓
86
88
+2
11▸❄
57
49
-8
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles ML -122
87
50
-37
–
69
60
-9
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -151
✓
83
62
-21
–
50
16
-34
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -112
✓
✓
50
56
+6
8▸❄
78
87
+9
37▸
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -188
✓
91
83
-8
–
22
6
-16
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -157
✓
82
66
-16
–
50
17
-33
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -131
✓
88
80
-8
–
81
93
+12
59▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -125
✓
85
85
+0
–
87
98
+11
29*
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -117
58
50
-8
–
67
77
+10
8❄
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -131
✓
79
81
+2
27▸❄
69
20
-49
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Tigers ML +137
✓
54
57
+3
8▸
31
78
+47
62
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -123
✓
74
67
-7
–
69
91
+22
64▸
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM LIVE
Astros ML -223 live
✓
84
79
-5
–
93
100
+7
42▸❄
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Dodgers ML -100 live
✓
55
94
+39
77▸❄
70
53
-17
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
74
84
+10
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
77
57
-20
–
67
90
+23
25*❄
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
81
83
+2
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
74
83
+9
13▸
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians 1.5
✓
✓
51
62
+11
53▸❄
50
80
+30
25*❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
82
84
+2
14▸
50
21
-29
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
74
82
+8
3
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
89
91
+2
45▸
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
83
83
+0
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
70
79
+9
59▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
80
88
+8
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
55
63
+8
–
75
91
+16
18*
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
73
81
+8
–
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM LIVE
Astros -1.5 live
✓
86
89
+3
–
85
85
+0
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Dodgers -1.5 live
✓
71
91
+20
24▸❄
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Under 8.5
62
57
-5
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Under 11
✓
50
54
+4
–
33
73
+40
39▸
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Under 8
61
59
-2
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
49
59
+10
52▸
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Under 8
66
69
+3
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
63
68
+5
6
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Under 8.5
61
53
-8
–
67
98
+31
28*❄
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 8
✓
60
66
+6
11▸
50
64
+14
21▸❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 8.5
60
56
-4
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Over 8.5
65
60
-5
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Under 7
72
67
-5
–
83
74
-9
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 7.5
58
61
+3
8
50
15
-35
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 8.5
54
51
-3
–
50
0
-50
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM LIVE
Over 8 live
38
51
+13
38▸❄
67
38
-29
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Under 10 live
60
50
-10
–
18
12
-6
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.