Strong RLM Locks →Updated Aug 6 · 9:30 AM ET26 snapshotsActionCircaevery 15m
🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
Pirates ML +115
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 45% +20Circa 86% +53
3,594 bets conv 46
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 96% +5Circa 95% +45
3,518 bets
SPREAD
Red Sox -1.5
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 84% +1Circa 97% +30
4,276 bets
MLML+RL
Guardians ML -117
Mets @ Guardians
AN 65% +16Circa 98% +12
5,346 bets conv 72
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 88% mon
Marlins
-156→-145
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67%(58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43%(36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
61%(11/18)
61%(11/18)
flat
60%(25/42)
60%(25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(34/60)
+$276
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
53%(10/19)
+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(14/21)
+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 92%
-192→-177 sustained
-11
White Sox ML +160
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 76%
-131→-124 sustained
-48
Tigers ML +112
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 85%
-192→-174 sustained
-9
Angels ML +167
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 68%
-126→-119 sustained
-16
Twins ML +107
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 68%
-133→-124 sustained
-39
Pirates ML +115
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 89%
-358→-314 sustained
+2
Nationals ML +280
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 67%
8.5→9 sustained
-31
Over 9 -100
A
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 86%
-167→-161 sustained
-11
Athletics ML +142
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 63%
8→7.5 sustained
-1
Under 7.5 -115
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
SPREAD
Mariners 63%
+155→+165 sustained
+12
Tigers +1.5 -200
Action
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 55%
8.5→9 sustained
-3
Over 9 -100
D
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 69%
8.5→9 sustained
+1
Over 9 -100
Action
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 58%
-116→-110 sustained
-20
Padres ML -107
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Mets @ Guardians
TOTAL
Over 63%
8→7.5 sustained
-9
Under 7.5 -113
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 85%
-153→-140 sustained
+3
Marlins ML +126
Spread
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 86%
-157→-140 faded
-12
Marlins ML +126
Spread
AC
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
ML
Cubs 61%
-102→+102 faded
+8
Blue Jays ML -117
Action
Marlins @ Braves
SPREAD
Braves 91%
+125→+135 faded
+5
Marlins +1.5 -162
Spread
Action
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 85%
-156→-145 faded
+3
Marlins ML +126
Spread
DC
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 68%
9.5→10 sustained
-39
Over 9.5 -115
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 80%
+115→+123 sustained
+5
Athletics +1.5 -145
Action
Mets @ Guardians
ML
Mets 51%
-111→-105 sustained
-16
Guardians ML -117
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
SPREAD
Cubs 51%
-178→-168 sustained
+0
Blue Jays -1.5 +140
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 59%
-132→-124 sustained
-5
Tigers ML +112
D
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -117
65 (+16)
98 (+12)
Circa money +12 — sharp book agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Pirates @ Brewers
Pirates ML +115
45 (+20)
86 (+53)
Circa money +53 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 86% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Marlins @ Braves
Braves -1.5
96 (+5)
95 (+45)
Circa money +45 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 95% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Orioles ML -187
✓
90
90
+0
–
89
96
+7
13❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Reds ML -161
✓
86
75
-11
–
67
100
+33
40▸*❄
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Guardians ML -117
✓
✓
49
65
+16
72▸❄
86
98
+12
16*❄
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers ML -132
✓
75
55
-20
–
67
14
-53
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Cubs ML +102
✓
61
69
+8
8▸❄
56
8
-48
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners ML -128
✓
59
54
-5
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies ML -345
✓
86
82
-4
–
25
10
-15
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -182
✓
89
85
-4
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -145
✓
85
88
+3
11▸❄
33
1
-32
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -122
✓
✓
59
64
+5
25▸❄
75
82
+7
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -107
42
62
+20
56❄
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
90
95
+5
12▸❄
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
80
85
+5
2❄
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Guardians 1.5
✓
61
67
+6
42▸❄
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
69
77
+8
13▸❄
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Cubs 1.5
✓
51
51
+0
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
63
75
+12
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
94
97
+3
14❄
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
83
84
+1
13▸❄
67
97
+30
25*❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
✓
91
96
+5
8▸❄
50
95
+45
25*❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
✓
49
63
+14
51❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
71
82
+11
57▸❄
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Under 9.5
54
53
-1
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Under 9.5
65
60
-5
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Over 7.5
63
54
-9
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Over 7.5
52
51
-1
–
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Over 7.5
63
62
-1
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Over 8
55
59
+4
11▸❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Under 9
55
52
-3
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 9
67
66
-1
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 9
63
63
+0
–
50
96
+46
25*❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9
69
70
+1
32▸❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
50
51
+1
–
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.