Updated 3:43 PM ET 28 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

TOTAL
Under 9.5
Twins @ Royals
AN 54% +20Circa 100% +40
6,078 bets conv 66
MLML+RL
Rangers ML -196
Giants @ Rangers
AN 92% +26Circa 57% +30
4,326 bets conv 69
MLML+RL
Athletics ML +115
Athletics @ Reds
AN 37% +15Circa 80% +36
7,653 bets
TOTAL
Over 9
Angels @ Orioles
AN 70% +18Circa 99% +32
7,007 bets conv 45
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Pirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 91% monPirates-167→-150observed live
Padres @ D-backsSPREADD-backs 85% monPadres+150→+161observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
57% (32/56)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68% (38/56)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
43% (24/56)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
38% (21/55)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57% (21/37)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (4/6)100% (6/6)
firm62% (8/13)77% (10/13)
build58% (7/12)75% (9/12)
flat52% (13/25)52% (13/25)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM57% (21/37)+$92
Moneyline55% (6/11)+$132
Total · Over50% (1/2)−$3
Total · Under50% (5/10)−$41
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)69% (9/13)+$104
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (56 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKAthletics @ RedsMLReds 77%-136→-129 sustained-43Athletics ML +115AC
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 67%-142→-118 sustained-5Tigers ML +105AC
DKTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 58%8→7.5 sustained-53Under 7.5 -105
DKAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 77%-156→-141 sustained+16Angels ML +125
DKMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 86%-156→-140 sustained+12Marlins ML +125MLC
DKTwins @ RoyalsTOTALUnder 64%9→9.5 sustained-8Over 9.5 -110Total
DKTwins @ RoyalsMLTwins 78%-149→-140 sustained-30Royals ML +125Total
DKMets @ GuardiansMLGuardians 77%-155→-140 sustained-18Mets ML +125
DKPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 85%-158→-141 sustained+10Pirates ML +125A
DKPirates @ BrewersTOTALOver 59%8.5→7 sustained-12Under 7.5 -115AC
DKPadres @ D-backsTOTALUnder 74%8.5→9 sustained-16Over 9 -101
DKBlue Jays @ AstrosMLAstros 60%-156→-123 sustained-36Blue Jays ML +110C
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionAthletics @ RedsMLReds 78%-141→-135 sustained-15Athletics ML +115DC
ActionWhite Sox @ Red SoxTOTALOver 57%9.5→9 sustained+2Under 9 -115
ActionPirates @ BrewersTOTALOver 55%8→7.5 sustained+1Under 7.5 -115DC
ActionDodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 70%-128→-120 sustained+18Cubs +1.5 -100Spread
ActionTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 57%-156→-125 sustained-8Tigers ML +105DC
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 83%-149→-140 sustained+8Marlins ML +125MLD
CircaPirates @ BrewersTOTALOver 55%8.5→7.5 sustained+1Under 7.5 -115DA
CircaBlue Jays @ AstrosMLAstros 62%-145→-128 sustained-4Blue Jays ML +110D
CircaRays @ RockiesTOTALOver 77%11.5→11 sustained-1Under 11 -105
CircaTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 57%-142→-120 sustained-8Tigers ML +105DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 84%-250→-192 faded-7Cardinals ML +165C
DKRays @ RockiesMLRays 87%-190→-164 faded+4Rockies ML +145
ActionPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 80%-167→-150 faded+11Pirates ML +125D
ActionPirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 82%+135→+143 faded+4Pirates +1.5 -170
ActionPadres @ D-backsSPREADD-backs 79%+150→+161 faded+11Padres +1.5 -190
ActionPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 79%9.5→9 faded-16Under 9 -120
CircaAthletics @ RedsMLReds 78%-136→-129 faded-15Athletics ML +115DA
CircaCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 74%-235→-192 faded+5Cardinals ML +165D
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKRays @ RockiesTOTALOver 53%11.5→11 sustained+41Under 11 -105C
ActionWhite Sox @ Red SoxSPREADRed Sox 64%+150→+156 faded+11White Sox +1.5 -177
ActionDodgers @ CubsTOTALOver 53%9→8.5 sustained+2Under 9 -105Spread
CircaGiants @ RangersTOTALOver 55%8→7.5 sustained-1Under 8 -110
CircaRays @ RockiesMLRays 88%-161→-149 sustained-1Rockies ML +145D
CircaPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 79%9→8.5 sustained-16Under 9 -120A

Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
PREMIUMAngels @ OriolesOver 970 (+18)99 (+32)Circa money +32 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 99% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMAthletics @ RedsAthletics ML +11537 (+15)80 (+36)Circa money +36 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMWhite Sox @ Red SoxWhite Sox ML +11938 (+12)31 (+15)Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUMMarlins @ BravesOver 962 (+14)98 (+31)Circa money +31 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMTwins @ RoyalsUnder 9.554 (+20)100 (+40)Circa money +40 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; money 54% vs public tickets 34%; high volume
STRONGDodgers @ CubsDodgers -1.588 (+18)8 (-42)high volume
PREMIUMGiants @ RangersRangers ML -19692 (+26)57 (+30)Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONGGiants @ RangersRangers -1.583 (+23) ()high volume
PREMIUMRays @ RockiesRays -1.593 (+9)90 (+15)Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMTigers @ MarinersUnder 7.566 (+15)66 (+33)Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONGTigers @ MarinersMariners -1.566 (+18) ()high volume
PREMIUMPadres @ D-backsUnder 937 (+16)100 (+33)Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles ML -1518185+4127594+1934
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds ML -1357863-155620-36
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians ML -1457983+4418298+1636
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies ML -2888895+752507-43
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees ML -2007479+518636-57
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -1377462-128469-15
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -1508391+8488528-57
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMTwins ML -1516851-178283+117
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers ML -1508091+11238313-70
Dodgers @ Cubs8:05 PMDodgers ML -2008183+24230-12
Giants @ Rangers8:05 PMRangers ML -1966692+26692757+3054
Blue Jays @ Astros8:10 PMAstros ML -1316258-47371-2
Rays @ Rockies8:40 PMRays ML -1688887-15845-13
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMTigers ML +1054351+8535828-30
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs ML -1207785+8307357-16

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles -1.58595+1045
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds -1.55963+4
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians -1.57889+1147
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies -1.58587+23822*
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees -1.56570+5397512-63
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.56475+1146
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.58996+728
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals 1.55459+5
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers -1.58286+423
Dodgers @ Cubs8:05 PMDodgers -1.57088+1829508-42
Giants @ Rangers8:05 PMRangers -1.56083+2381
Blue Jays @ Astros8:10 PMAstros -1.55553-224*
Rays @ Rockies8:40 PMRays -1.58493+9457590+1528
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners -1.54866+1838
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs -1.57990+1117

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOver 95270+18456799+3213*
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMOver 97474+0
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMOver 7.55651-56799+3225*
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMOver 95764+737
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMOver 8.55268+16576731-36
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMOver 95759+2213352+19
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMOver 94862+14706798+3125*
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMUnder 9.53454+206660100+4036
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMOver 7.55556+1294013-27
Dodgers @ Cubs8:05 PMOver 95355+2345076+2647
Giants @ Rangers8:05 PMOver 85554-16798+3140*
Blue Jays @ Astros8:10 PMOver 8.54754+7415021-29
Rays @ Rockies8:40 PMOver 117776-1
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMUnder 7.55166+15413366+3340*
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 97963-16330-33
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) = line moved toward this side (confirm), = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.