Strong RLM Locks →Updated Aug 6 · 5:30 AM ET10 snapshotsActionCircaevery 15m
🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
Pirates ML +117
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 40% +19Circa 89% +56
1,898 bets
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 97% +9Circa 95% +45
1,767 bets
SPREAD
Red Sox -1.5
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 86% +1Circa 97% +30
2,362 bets
ML
Guardians ML -109
Mets @ Guardians
AN 47% +5Circa 98% +18
2,499 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
No money-vs-line-movement conflicts right now.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67%(58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43%(36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
61%(11/18)
61%(11/18)
flat
60%(25/42)
60%(25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(34/60)
+$276
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
53%(10/19)
+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(14/21)
+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 80%
-131→-123 sustained
-74
Tigers ML +110
A
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 88%
-192→-182 sustained
+4
Angels ML +168
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 100%
8.5→9 sustained
+0
Over 9 -100
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 74%
+115→+125 sustained
+9
Athletics +1.5 -150
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 88%
-167→-159 sustained
-14
Athletics ML +137
Action
Mets @ Guardians
ML
Mets 58%
-111→-105 sustained
-5
Guardians ML -109
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 93%
8→7.5 sustained
-2
Under 7.5 -110
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 59%
-132→-124 sustained
+4
Tigers ML +110
D
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 59%
8.5→9 sustained
+4
Over 9 -102
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Mets @ Guardians
TOTAL
Over 73%
8→7.5 sustained
-11
Under 7.5 -107
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 88%
9.5→10 sustained
+12
Over 9.5 -115
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -109
47 (+5)
98 (+18)
Circa money +18 — sharp book agrees; Circa 98% of handle here
STRONG
Pirates @ Brewers
Pirates ML +117
40 (+19)
89 (+56)
Circa money +56 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 89% of handle here
STRONG
Marlins @ Braves
Braves -1.5
97 (+9)
95 (+45)
Circa money +45 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 95% of handle here
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Orioles ML -188
✓
91
91
+0
–
86
96
+10
18*
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Reds ML -159
✓
88
74
-14
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Mets ML -105
58
53
-5
–
20
2
-18
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers ML -134
✓
79
60
-19
–
67
11
-56
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Cubs ML +106
44
52
+8
–
50
6
-44
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners ML -124
✓
59
63
+4
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies ML -350
✓
86
84
-2
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -187
✓
91
84
-7
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -154
✓
84
85
+1
12❄
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Twins ML +105
41
52
+11
2▸*❄
20
3
-17
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -106
40
56
+16
33*❄
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
87
95
+8
31▸❄
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
74
83
+9
3▸*❄
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Guardians 1.5
64
61
-3
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
67
84
+17
48▸❄
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Blue Jays -1.5
65
66
+1
20▸*❄
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
48
77
+29
22▸*❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
93
98
+5
27▸*❄
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
85
86
+1
22▸❄
67
97
+30
25*❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
✓
88
97
+9
25❄
50
95
+45
25*❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
44
68
+24
40*❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
72
66
-6
–
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Over 9.5
48
51
+3
21❄
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Under 9.5
66
62
-4
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Over 7.5
73
62
-11
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Over 7.5
51
53
+2
16❄
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Over 7.5
93
91
-2
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Over 7.5
58
57
-1
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Over 9
54
55
+1
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 9
59
55
-4
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 9
60
56
-4
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9
59
63
+4
29▸*❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
61
64
+3
–
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.