🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
White Sox ML +167
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 15% +4Circa 74% +34
16,494 bets fading
MLML+RL
Royals ML -129
Twins @ Royals
AN 72% +10Circa 92% +16
11,097 bets
MLML+RL
Padres ML -107
Padres @ D-backs
AN 47% +3Circa 72% +18
7,204 bets fading
TOTAL
Over 9
Padres @ D-backs
AN 66% +5Circa 81% +14
7,204 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 57% mon
Tigers
-132→-119
observed live
Mets @ Guardians
SPREAD
Guardians 92% mon
Mets
-182→+172
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 57% mon
Pirates
-132→-122
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 53% mon
Padres
-116→-109
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Final
4–1
Orioles 93%
38
money side lost ✗
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Final
5–6
Reds 78%
0
money side won ✓
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Final
13–6
Guardians 92%
85
money side lost ✗
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Final
2–5
Brewers 57%
0
money side won ✓
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Final
2–3
Cubs 58%
0
money side won ✓
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
In Progress
4–0
Mariners 57%
0
money side trailing
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(55/91)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67%(61/91)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
44%(40/91)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
42%(37/89)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
56%(36/64)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
60%(6/10)
100%(10/10)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
58%(11/19)
63%(12/19)
flat
62%(28/45)
58%(26/45)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
56%(36/64)
+$210
Moneyline
44%(7/16)
−$101
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
52%(11/21)
+$5
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
68%(15/22)
+$224
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (91 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
— none this slate —
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 56%
-116→-109 sustained
-3
Padres ML -107
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 91%
-192→-185 faded
-3
White Sox ML +167
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 86%
-157→-149 faded
-5
Marlins ML +137
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 62%
-126→-114 sustained
-4
Twins ML +111
Action
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 87%
-156→-148 faded
+6
Marlins ML +137
Action
Marlins @ Braves
SPREAD
Braves 91%
+125→+132 faded
+1
Marlins +1.5 -150
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 58%
8.5→9 sustained
+2
Over 8.5 -127
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 87%
-153→-145 faded
+6
Marlins ML +137
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
TOTAL
Under 58%
7.5→8 sustained
+10
Over 8 -119 live
DK
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 68%
-131→-110 sustained
-9
Tigers ML +105 live
AC
DK
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 84%
-192→-182 faded
-6
Angels ML +165 ✓
C
DK
Pirates @ Brewers FINAL
ML
Brewers 62%
-133→-117 sustained
-10
Pirates ML +107 ✗
AC
DK
Nationals @ Phillies LIVE
TOTAL
Under 62%
8.5→9 sustained
-37
Over 9 -102 live
A
DK
Nationals @ Phillies LIVE
ML
Phillies 87%
-358→-314 faded
-1
Nationals ML +265 live
C
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
SPREAD
Reds 79%
+115→+123 sustained
-3
Athletics +1.5 -145 ✓
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
ML
Reds 85%
-167→-161 sustained
-7
Athletics ML +145 ✗
Action
Mets @ Guardians FINAL
TOTAL
Over 62%
7.5→7 sustained
-7
Under 7 -113 ✗
C
Action
Mets @ Guardians FINAL
SPREAD
Guardians 70%
-182→+172 faded
+12
Mets +1.5 -210 ✓
Action
Pirates @ Brewers FINAL
ML
Brewers 71%
-132→-122 sustained
-14
Pirates ML +107 ✗
DC
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Over 67%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -117 ✓
Total
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs FINAL
ML
Cubs 58%
-102→+100 faded
+0
Blue Jays ML -109 ✗
Total
Action
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
SPREAD
Mariners 64%
+155→+163 sustained
+12
Tigers -1.5 +168 live
Action
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 62%
-132→-119 sustained
-5
Tigers ML +105 live
DC
Action
Nationals @ Phillies LIVE
TOTAL
Under 55%
8.5→9 sustained
-8
Over 9 -102 live
D
Circa
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 89%
-192→-179 faded
+4
Angels ML +165 ✓
D
Circa
Mets @ Guardians FINAL
TOTAL
Over 62%
8→7 sustained
-7
Under 7 -113 ✗
A
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers FINAL
ML
Brewers 71%
-134→-121 faded
-14
Pirates ML +107 ✗
DA
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 62%
-121→-111 sustained
-5
Tigers ML +105 live
DA
Circa
Nationals @ Phillies LIVE
ML
Phillies 87%
-329→-304 sustained
-2
Nationals ML +265 live
D
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
PREMIUM
Twins @ Royals
Royals ML -129
72 (+10)
92 (+16)
Circa money +16 — sharp book agrees; Circa 92% of handle here; high volume; steaming +17 money% since prev
STRONG
Padres @ D-backs
Over 9
66 (+5)
81 (+14)
Circa money +14 — sharp book agrees; Circa 81% of handle here; high volume; steaming +4 money% since prev
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
Over 9.5 ✗
57 (+9)
44 (+11)
Circa money +11 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
Athletics ML +145 ✗
22 (+7)
72 (+28)
Circa money +28 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 72% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -189
✓
89
85
-4
–
60
26
-34
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -159
✓
87
93
+6
33
74
68
-6
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -129
✓
✓
62
72
+10
40▸
76
92
+16
68▸
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -109
✓
56
53
-3
–
46
28
-18
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM FINAL
Orioles ML -182 ✗
✓
89
93
+4
38▸
70
42
-28
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM FINAL
Reds ML -166 ✓
✓
85
78
-7
–
56
28
-28
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM FINAL
Guardians ML -125 ✗
✓
57
92
+35
85▸
68
59
-9
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM FINAL
Brewers ML -122 ✓
✓
71
57
-14
–
50
47
-3
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Cubs ML -103 ✓
58
58
+0
–
67
34
-33
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM LIVE
Mariners ML -119 live
✓
62
57
-5
–
67
76
+9
3❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM LIVE
Phillies ML -322 live
✓
87
85
-2
–
48
74
+26
48▸
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
84
81
-3
–
93
100
+7
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
✓
91
92
+1
–
91
100
+9
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
✓
51
52
+1
7▸❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
✓
47
54
+7
36▸
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM FINAL
Orioles -1.5 ✗
✓
✓
88
92
+4
11▸
95
98
+3
17❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM FINAL
Reds -1.5 ✗
✓
79
76
-3
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM FINAL
Guardians -1.5 ✗
✓
70
82
+12
37▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM FINAL
Brewers -1.5 ✓
✓
62
58
-4
–
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Blue Jays -1.5 ✗
50
67
+17
44▸
60
3
-57
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM LIVE
Mariners -1.5 live
✓
64
76
+12
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM LIVE
Phillies -1.5 live
✓
✓
95
97
+2
33▸❄
85
97
+12
5❄
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Over 8.5
51
54
+3
38▸
78
20
-58
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Over 9
51
56
+5
48▸
50
14
-36
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 8.5
58
60
+2
10
56
40
-16
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
✓
61
66
+5
17▸
67
81
+14
47❄
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM FINAL
Over 9.5 ✗
✓
48
57
+9
42
33
44
+11
34❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM FINAL
Under 9 ✗
62
57
-5
–
33
99
+66
40▸*❄
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM FINAL
Over 7 ✓
62
55
-7
–
13
31
+18
40▸*❄
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM FINAL
Over 7.5 ✗
58
58
+0
–
60
39
-21
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Over 7.5 ✗
✓
67
70
+3
46▸
62
96
+34
70❄
✓
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM LIVE
Over 8 live
62
69
+7
30▸❄
50
33
-17
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM LIVE
Over 9 live
45
53
+8
25▸❄
67
48
-19
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.