🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
White Sox ML +167
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 17% +6Circa 75% +40
13,096 bets
MLML+RL
Padres ML -107
Padres @ D-backs
AN 48% +4Circa 92% +29
5,674 bets fading
SPREAD
Phillies -1.5
Nationals @ Phillies
AN 97% +2Circa 97% +17
11,415 bets
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 92% +2Circa 100% +12
10,693 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 57% mon
Tigers
-132→-119
observed live
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 91% mon
Marlins
-156→-146
observed live
Mets @ Guardians
SPREAD
Guardians 92% mon
Mets
-182→+172
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 57% mon
Pirates
-132→-122
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 52% mon
Padres
-116→-108
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Final
4–1
Orioles 93%
38
money side lost ✗
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Final
5–6
Reds 78%
0
money side won ✓
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
In Progress
12–5
Guardians 92%
85
money side trailing
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
In Progress
2–4
Brewers 57%
0
money side leading
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
In Progress
1–0
Cubs 58%
0
money side trailing
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(53/88)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67%(59/88)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
44%(39/88)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
42%(36/86)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
58%(11/19)
63%(12/19)
flat
60%(26/43)
58%(25/43)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(34/60)
+$276
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
53%(10/19)
+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(14/21)
+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (88 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 66%
-126→-119 sustained
-12
Twins ML +107
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 65%
8.5→9 sustained
-29
Over 9 -102
A
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 55%
8.5→9 sustained
-8
Over 9 -102
D
Action
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 56%
-116→-108 sustained
-4
Padres ML -107
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 88%
-157→-140 faded
-8
Marlins ML +127
AC
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 88%
-358→-334 faded
-1
Nationals ML +277
Action
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 87%
-156→-146 faded
+4
Marlins ML +127
DC
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 87%
-153→-145 faded
+4
Marlins ML +127
DA
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 92%
-192→-185 faded
-5
White Sox ML +167
Action
Marlins @ Braves
SPREAD
Braves 90%
+125→+132 faded
+2
Marlins +1.5 -156
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 68%
8.5→9 sustained
+2
Over 8.5 -127
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
TOTAL
Under 60%
7.5→8 sustained
+9
Over 8 -119 live
DK
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 70%
-131→-119 sustained
-21
Tigers ML +105 live
AC
DK
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 84%
-192→-182 faded
-6
Angels ML +165 ✓
C
DK
Pirates @ Brewers LIVE
ML
Brewers 62%
-133→-117 sustained
-10
Pirates ML +107 live
AC
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
SPREAD
Reds 79%
+115→+123 sustained
-3
Athletics +1.5 -145 ✓
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
ML
Reds 85%
-167→-161 sustained
-7
Athletics ML +145 ✗
Action
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
TOTAL
Over 62%
7.5→7 sustained
-7
Under 7 -113 live
C
Action
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
SPREAD
Guardians 70%
-182→+172 faded
+12
Mets +1.5 -210 live
Action
Pirates @ Brewers LIVE
ML
Brewers 71%
-132→-122 sustained
-14
Pirates ML +107 live
DC
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Over 67%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -117 live
Total
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs LIVE
ML
Cubs 58%
-102→+100 faded
+0
Blue Jays ML -109 live
Total
Action
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
SPREAD
Mariners 64%
+155→+163 sustained
+12
Tigers -1.5 +170 live
Action
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 62%
-132→-119 sustained
-5
Tigers ML +105 live
DC
Circa
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 89%
-192→-179 faded
+4
Angels ML +165 ✓
D
Circa
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
TOTAL
Over 62%
8→7 sustained
-7
Under 7 -113 live
A
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers LIVE
ML
Brewers 71%
-134→-121 faded
-14
Pirates ML +107 live
DA
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 62%
-121→-114 sustained
-5
Tigers ML +105 live
DA
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
White Sox @ Red Sox
White Sox ML +167
17 (+6)
75 (+40)
Circa money +40 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 75% of handle here; high volume
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
Over 9.5 ✗
57 (+9)
44 (+11)
Circa money +11 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
Athletics ML +145 ✗
22 (+7)
72 (+28)
Circa money +28 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 72% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
Tigers ML +105 live
43 (+5)
47 (+12)
Circa money +12 — sharp book agrees; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies ML -350
✓
87
85
-2
–
57
82
+25
77▸
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -191
✓
89
83
-6
–
65
25
-40
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -146
✓
87
91
+4
13▸❄
71
12
-59
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -122
✓
60
54
-6
–
71
85
+14
50
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -108
✓
56
52
-4
–
38
8
-30
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM FINAL
Orioles ML -182 ✗
✓
89
93
+4
38▸
70
42
-28
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM FINAL
Reds ML -166 ✓
✓
85
78
-7
–
56
28
-28
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM LIVE
Guardians ML -125 live
✓
57
92
+35
85▸
68
59
-9
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM LIVE
Brewers ML -122 live
✓
71
57
-14
–
50
47
-3
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Cubs ML -103 live
58
58
+0
–
67
34
-33
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM LIVE
Mariners ML -119 live
✓
62
57
-5
–
65
53
-12
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
✓
95
97
+2
33▸
80
97
+17
36
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
81
82
+1
35▸
92
100
+8
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
✓
90
92
+2
–
88
100
+12
2
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
✓
51
52
+1
–
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
✓
48
59
+11
49▸
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM FINAL
Orioles -1.5 ✗
✓
✓
88
92
+4
11▸
95
98
+3
17❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM FINAL
Reds -1.5 ✗
✓
79
76
-3
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM LIVE
Guardians -1.5 live
✓
70
82
+12
37▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM LIVE
Brewers -1.5 live
✓
62
58
-4
–
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Blue Jays -1.5 live
50
67
+17
44▸
60
3
-57
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM LIVE
Mariners -1.5 live
✓
64
76
+12
–
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Over 9
45
53
+8
25▸❄
86
83
-3
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 8.5
62
57
-5
–
33
97
+64
20▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 9
65
58
-7
–
20
51
+31
36
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 8.5
68
70
+2
1
56
40
-16
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
51
57
+6
12▸❄
80
56
-24
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM FINAL
Over 9.5 ✗
✓
48
57
+9
42
33
44
+11
34❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM FINAL
Under 9 ✗
62
57
-5
–
33
99
+66
40▸*❄
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM LIVE
Over 7 live
62
55
-7
–
13
31
+18
40▸*❄
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM LIVE
Over 7.5 live
58
58
+0
–
60
39
-21
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Over 7.5 live
✓
67
70
+3
46▸
62
96
+34
70❄
✓
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM LIVE
Over 8 live
62
69
+7
30▸❄
50
33
-17
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.