Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 5 ยท 5:15 PM ET 57 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

๐ŸŽฏ Top plays โ€” both books agree ยท money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

TOTAL
Under 8.5
Padres @ D-backs
AN 26% +1Circa 100% +67
8,567 bets
SPREAD
Guardians 1.5
Mets @ Guardians
AN 67% +16Circa 80% +30
8,168 bets conv 68
TOTAL
Over 8
Angels @ Orioles
AN 47% +3Circa 95% +15
10,647 bets
SPREAD
Mariners -1.5
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 57% +2Circa 92% +12
7,376 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in โ€” the line doesnโ€™t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

โš ๏ธ Signal conflicts ยท money vs line movement disagree โ€” surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Dodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 94% monCubs-192โ†’+158observed live
Pirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 81% monPirates-210โ†’+165observed live
Padres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 76% monD-backs-222โ†’+125observed live
Giants @ RangersMLRangers 69% monGiants-172โ†’-158observed live
Blue Jays @ AstrosSPREADAstros 79% monBlue Jays-182โ†’-115observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games โ€” the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture ยท unverified means the move only shows up openโ†’now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched โ€” likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

๐Ÿ“ก Live & final ยท started games โ€” did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction

MatchupFirst pitchStatusScore (Aโ€“H) Closing money-fav (ML)ConvTrajectoryResult
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PMFinal5โ€“4Astros 79%0money side lost โœ—
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMFinal0โ€“6Rangers 69%0money side won โœ“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PMIn Progress6โ€“7Dodgers 94%77money side trailing
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMIn Progress4โ€“0Rays 88%11money side leading

๐Ÿงฎ Feedback scorecard ยท captured signals vs actual results โ€” accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
59% (43/73)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ ยท line came our way
66% (48/73)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite โˆ’1.5
45% (33/73)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
42% (30/71)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM ยท fade the public
55% (29/53)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam75% (6/8)100% (8/8)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build56% (9/16)62% (10/16)
flat56% (18/32)53% (17/32)
RLM sharp side โ€” by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM55% (29/53)+$71
Moneyline47% (7/15)โˆ’$1
Total ยท Over67% (2/3)+$86
Total ยท Under50% (8/16)โˆ’$68
Run line โˆ’1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)โˆ’$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)67% (12/18)+$154
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below โ€” closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (73 games) โ€” do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high โ€” our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

๐Ÿ”„ Reverse line movement ยท public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick ยท fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings ยท sustained โ€” DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxTOTALOver 55%8.5โ†’8 sustained+6Under 8 -103
DKTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 58%8โ†’7.5 sustained+29Under 7.5 -110C
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 72%-155โ†’-142 sustained-4Tigers ML +127
DKTwins @ RoyalsMLRoyals 55%-120โ†’-108 sustained-13Twins ML +103
DKPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 59%9.5โ†’8.5 sustained+33Under 8.5 -100AC
Action Network ยท sustained โ€” consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionTwins @ RoyalsTOTALOver 70%9โ†’8.5 sustained-6Under 8.5 -100C
ActionPirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 79%-210โ†’+165 sustained+11Pirates +1.5 -202
ActionPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 75%9.5โ†’8.5 sustained-1Under 8.5 -100DC
Circa ยท sustained โ€” sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaMarlins @ BravesTOTALOver 58%9โ†’8 sustained+1Under 8.5 -110
CircaTwins @ RoyalsTOTALOver 70%9โ†’8.5 sustained-6Under 8.5 -100A
CircaTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 66%8โ†’7.5 sustained+3Under 7.5 -110D
CircaPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 75%9.5โ†’8.5 sustained-1Under 8.5 -100DA
Faded โ€” line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 78%-142โ†’-134 faded+11Angels ML +117
DKMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 79%-131โ†’-123 faded-20Marlins ML +111
ActionPadres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 73%-222โ†’+125 faded+10Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Now gone โ€” qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKAthletics @ RedsMLReds 75%-137โ†’-129 sustained-28Athletics ML +146
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxMLRed Sox 90%-126โ†’-119 sustained-4White Sox ML +116
DKAngels @ OriolesTOTALUnder 53%8โ†’8.5 sustained-46Over 8 -105
DKMets @ GuardiansTOTALOver 0%8.5โ†’7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -108
DKCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 83%-156โ†’-146 sustained-33Cardinals ML +140
DKNationals @ PhilliesMLPhillies 87%-174โ†’-168 faded-19Nationals ML +169
ActionAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 88%-135โ†’-122 sustained-27Angels ML +117D
ActionAngels @ OriolesSPREADOrioles 81%+145โ†’+152 faded+4Angels +1.5 -183
ActionAthletics @ RedsTOTALOver 52%10โ†’9.5 sustained+9Under 9.5 -116
ActionAthletics @ RedsSPREADReds 81%+135โ†’+142 sustained+6Athletics +1.5 -148
ActionAthletics @ RedsMLReds 84%-155โ†’-149 faded-9Athletics ML +146
ActionCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 84%-156โ†’-150 sustained-5Cardinals ML +140
ActionTwins @ RoyalsSPREADRoyals 68%-184โ†’+167 sustained+14Twins -1.5 +165
ActionTigers @ MarinersMLTigers 50%+125โ†’+137 sustained-5Mariners ML -146
CircaAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 88%-136โ†’-120 sustained-27Angels ML +117D
Live & finished โ€” closing RLM read & result
DKDodgers @ Cubs LIVETOTALUnder 66%9.5โ†’10 sustained-64Over 10 -105 liveSpreadAC
DKGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 80%-170โ†’-147 sustained+3Giants ML +136 โœ—AC
DKRays @ Rockies LIVEMLRays 85%-167โ†’-153 sustained+6Rockies ML +141 live
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros FINALTOTALUnder 62%7.5โ†’8 sustained-13Over 8 -112 โœ“
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros FINALSPREADAstros 86%-182โ†’-115 faded+3Blue Jays +1.5 -105 โœ“
ActionDodgers @ Cubs LIVESPREADDodgers 71%-192โ†’+158 sustained+20Cubs +1.5 -187 liveSpread
ActionDodgers @ Cubs LIVETOTALUnder 60%9.5โ†’10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 liveSpreadDC
ActionGiants @ Rangers FINALSPREADRangers 74%+120โ†’+126 sustained+10Giants +1.5 -153 โœ—
ActionGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 70%-172โ†’-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136 โœ—DC
CircaDodgers @ Cubs LIVEMLDodgers 55%+106โ†’+112 sustained+39Cubs ML -115 liveSpread
CircaDodgers @ Cubs LIVETOTALUnder 60%9.5โ†’10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 liveSpreadDA
CircaGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 70%-171โ†’-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136 โœ—DA

โญ Strongest signals ยท Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
STRONGAngels @ OriolesAngels ML +11739 (+27)18 (-20)high volume
PREMIUMMets @ GuardiansGuardians 1.567 (+16)80 (+30)Circa money +30 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONGBlue Jays @ Astros FINALOver 8 โœ“51 (+13)38 (-29)money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONGDodgers @ Cubs LIVEDodgers -1.5 live91 (+20) ()high volume

๐Ÿ’ฐ Moneyline ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles ML -133โœ“8861-27โ€“6282+2044
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds ML -163โœ“8475-9โ€“5385+3243โ–ธ
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians ML -112โœ“โœ“4951+23โ–ธโ„7779+23โ–ธ
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies ML -188โœ“9383-10โ€“3885+4773โ–ธ
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees ML -161โœ“8479-5โ€“5767+1034โ–ธ
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -132โœ“8981-8โ€“8190+954โ–ธ
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -128โœ“8686+0โ€“8178-3โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals ML -115โœ“6154-7โ€“7182+1147
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers ML -131โœ“8081+128โ–ธโ„6320-43โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners ML -146โœ“5055+5โ€“587-51โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres ML -124โœ“7676+0โ€“7491+1724โ–ธ
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM FINALAstros ML -223 โœ—โœ“8479-5โ€“93100+742โ–ธโ„
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEDodgers ML -100 liveโœ“5594+3977โ–ธโ„7053-17โ€“
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PM FINALRangers ML -158 โœ“โœ“7069-1โ€“438-35โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PM LIVERays ML -159 liveโœ“8688+211โ–ธโ„5843-15โ€“

๐Ÿ“ Run line ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles -1.5โœ“8185+4โ€“โ€“โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds -1.5โœ“8187+68โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians 1.5โœ“โœ“5167+1668โ–ธ5080+3025*โ„
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies -1.5โœ“8586+110โ–ธ6725-42โ€“
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees -1.5โœ“7481+74โ€“โ€“
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.5โœ“8992+350โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.5โœ“8489+5โ€“โ€“โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals 1.5โœ“6882+1470โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers -1.5โœ“7990+11โ€“โ€“โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners -1.5โœ“โœ“5557+2โ€“8092+12โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres -1.5โœ“7383+10โ€“โ€“โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM FINALAstros -1.5 โœ—โœ“8689+3โ€“8585+0โ€“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEDodgers -1.5 liveโœ“7191+2024โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PM FINALRangers -1.5 โœ“โœ“7484+10โ€“โ€“โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PM LIVERays -1.5 liveโœ“7761-16โ€“7595+2032*โ„

๐Ÿ“Š Totals ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMUnder 85653-3โ€“205-15โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMOver 9.55261+955โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMUnder 7.55959+0โ€“6397+3436โ–ธโ„
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMOver 9.56470+625โ„โ€“โ€“
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMUnder 8.55952-7โ€“5097+4746โ„
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMUnder 85664+817โ–ธ5030-20โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMOver 8.55859+125807-73โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMOver 8.57064-6โ€“โ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMUnder 76760-7โ€“5465+1115โ–ธ
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMOver 7.56669+366016-44โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 8.57574-1โ€“670-67โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM FINALOver 8 โœ“3851+1338โ–ธโ„6738-29โ€“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEUnder 10 live6050-10โ€“1812-6โ€“
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PM FINALUnder 8.5 โœ“6257-5โ€“โ€“โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PM LIVEUnder 11 liveโœ“4953+4โ€“2564+3942โ–ธโ„
diff = money% โˆ’ bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0โ€“100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm โˆ’ round-trip) sparkline = money%โˆ’bets% over all snapshots (the shape) โ–ธ = line moved toward this side (confirm), โ–ธ = line drifting away โœ“ Agree = both books' diffs same way now โœ“ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (โ‰ฅ45) RLโœ“ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability โ€” bands: 25โ€“44 building, 45โ€“64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3ร—. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots โ€” a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1โ€“2 real updates; โ„ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume โ€” its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.