Updated 7:15 PM ET 42 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

TOTAL
Under 9.5
Twins @ Royals
AN 54% +19Circa 98% +48
10,864 bets conv 66
TOTAL
Under 9
Padres @ D-backs
AN 31% +12Circa 94% +44
10,688 bets
MLML+RL
Rangers ML -196
Giants @ Rangers
AN 93% +28Circa 56% +27
7,583 bets conv 81
ML
Tigers ML +105
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 75% +29Circa 62% +1
11,733 bets conv 85
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Dodgers @ CubsMLDodgers 90% monCubs-198→-190observed live
Pirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 93% monPirates-167→-150observed live
Padres @ D-backsSPREADD-backs 85% monPadres+150→+160observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction

MatchupFirst pitchStatusScore (A–H) Closing money-fav (ML)ConvTrajectoryResult
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMIn Progress0–0Orioles 81%18tied
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMIn Progress0–1Phillies 97%58money side leading
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMIn Progress0–0Reds 87%28tied
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMIn Progress3–0Guardians 75%26money side trailing

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
57% (32/56)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68% (38/56)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
43% (24/56)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
38% (21/55)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57% (21/37)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (4/6)100% (6/6)
firm62% (8/13)77% (10/13)
build58% (7/12)75% (9/12)
flat52% (13/25)52% (13/25)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM57% (21/37)+$92
Moneyline55% (6/11)+$132
Total · Over50% (1/2)−$3
Total · Under50% (5/10)−$41
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)69% (9/13)+$104
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (56 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 59%-142→-118 sustained-18Tigers ML +105
DKTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 58%8→7.5 sustained-48Under 7.5 -101A
DKTwins @ RoyalsMLTwins 77%-149→-140 sustained-14Royals ML +125MLTotal
DKTwins @ RoyalsTOTALUnder 67%9→9.5 sustained-33Over 9.5 -100MLTotal
DKPirates @ BrewersTOTALOver 60%8.5→7 sustained-21Under 7.5 -117AC
DKPadres @ D-backsTOTALUnder 67%8.5→9 sustained+5Over 9 -101Spread
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionPirates @ BrewersTOTALOver 59%8→7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -117DC
ActionDodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 73%-128→-122 sustained+15Cubs +1.5 +102
ActionDodgers @ CubsMLDodgers 76%-198→-190 sustained+14Cubs ML +167
ActionTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 67%8.5→7.5 sustained-13Under 7.5 -101D
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaPirates @ BrewersTOTALOver 59%8.5→7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -117DA
CircaBlue Jays @ AstrosTOTALOver 81%9→8.5 sustained+1Under 8.5 -117
CircaRays @ RockiesTOTALOver 79%11.5→11 sustained-2Under 11 -109ML
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 83%-158→-141 faded+12Pirates ML +125A
DKRays @ RockiesMLRays 88%-190→-169 faded+2Rockies ML +147ML
DKBlue Jays @ AstrosMLAstros 60%-156→-136 faded-21Blue Jays ML +122
ActionPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 82%-167→-150 faded+11Pirates ML +125D
ActionPirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 79%+135→+144 faded+5Pirates +1.5 -171
ActionPadres @ D-backsSPREADD-backs 75%+150→+160 faded+14Padres -1.5 +165Spread
ActionPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 81%9.5→9 faded-12Under 9 -120Spread
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKDodgers @ CubsTOTALUnder 100%7.5→9.5 sustained+0Over 9 -110
DKRays @ RockiesTOTALOver 51%11.5→11 sustained+2Under 11 -109MLC
ActionDodgers @ CubsTOTALOver 82%9→8.5 sustained-1Under 9 -110
ActionTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 54%-156→-125 sustained-29Tigers ML +105D
CircaGiants @ RangersTOTALOver 60%8→7.5 sustained-3Under 8 -110
CircaBlue Jays @ AstrosMLAstros 59%-145→-128 sustained-3Blue Jays ML +122D
CircaRays @ RockiesMLRays 80%-161→-149 sustained+14Rockies ML +147MLD
CircaTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 67%8→7.5 sustained-13Under 7.5 -101DA
CircaTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 54%-142→-120 sustained-29Tigers ML +105D
CircaPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 81%9→8.5 sustained-12Under 9 -120SpreadA
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DKAthletics @ Reds LIVEMLReds 76%-136→-129 sustained-38Athletics ML +115 liveAC
DKAngels @ Orioles LIVEMLOrioles 80%-156→-142 sustained+5Angels ML +127 live
DKMarlins @ Braves LIVEMLBraves 86%-156→-147 faded+10Marlins ML +125 liveML
DKMets @ Guardians LIVEMLGuardians 78%-155→-128 sustained-6Mets ML +115 liveC
ActionAthletics @ Reds LIVEMLReds 73%-141→-135 sustained+14Athletics ML +115 liveDC
ActionNationals @ Phillies LIVETOTALOver 66%9→8.5 sustained+8Under 9 -120 live
ActionCardinals @ Yankees LIVETOTALOver 83%8.5→8 sustained+4Under 8 -110 live
ActionWhite Sox @ Red Sox LIVETOTALOver 77%9.5→9 sustained-2Under 9 -116 live
ActionWhite Sox @ Red Sox LIVESPREADRed Sox 72%+150→+156 faded+6White Sox +1.5 -165 live
ActionMarlins @ Braves LIVETOTALOver 60%9.5→9 sustained+6Under 9 -103 liveML
CircaAthletics @ Reds LIVEMLReds 73%-136→-129 faded+14Athletics ML +115 liveDA
CircaMets @ Guardians LIVEMLGuardians 74%-145→-130 sustained+1Mets ML +115 liveD
CircaCardinals @ Yankees LIVEMLYankees 72%-235→-202 faded+8Cardinals ML +175 live
CircaMarlins @ Braves LIVEMLBraves 78%-149→-140 sustained+17Marlins ML +125 liveMLD

Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
PREMIUMTwins @ RoyalsUnder 9.554 (+19)98 (+48)Circa money +48 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; money 54% vs public tickets 35%; high volume
PREMIUMGiants @ RangersRangers ML -19693 (+28)56 (+27)Circa money +27 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONGGiants @ RangersRangers -1.583 (+19) ()high volume
PREMIUMRays @ RockiesRays -1.591 (+10)90 (+15)Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; high volume
STRONGTigers @ MarinersMariners -1.555 (+16) ()money 55% vs public tickets 39%; high volume
STRONGTigers @ MarinersTigers ML +10575 (+29)62 (+1)high volume
PREMIUMPadres @ D-backsUnder 931 (+12)94 (+44)Circa money +44 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 94% of handle here; high volume
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUMAngels @ Orioles LIVEOver 9.5 live60 (+8)96 (+33)Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 96% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMMets @ Guardians LIVEUnder 7.5 live48 (+9)61 (+28)Circa money +28 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONGWhite Sox @ Red Sox LIVERed Sox -1.5 live78 (+6)86 (+26)Circa money +26 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 86% of handle here; high volume

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMTwins ML -1516884+16567560-15
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers ML -1508293+11238535-50
Dodgers @ Cubs8:05 PMDodgers ML -1907690+14263632-4
Giants @ Rangers8:05 PMRangers ML -1966593+28812956+2735
Blue Jays @ Astros8:10 PMAstros ML -1435956-36291+2970
Rays @ Rockies8:40 PMRays ML -1738094+14496446-18
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMTigers ML +1054675+29856162+135
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs ML -1206985+16477966-13
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PM LIVEOrioles ML -150 live7781+4186865-3
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PM LIVEReds ML -135 live7387+14286836-32
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PM LIVEGuardians ML -135 live7475+1268554-31
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PM LIVEPhillies ML -316 live9197+6584754+720
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PM LIVEYankees ML -210 live7280+835607-53
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PM LIVERed Sox ML -151 live7966-137786+963
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PM LIVEBraves ML -151 live7895+17688583-2

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals 1.55160+9
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers -1.57984+522
Dodgers @ Cubs8:05 PMDodgers -1.57388+15246721-46
Giants @ Rangers8:05 PMRangers -1.56483+1968
Blue Jays @ Astros8:10 PMAstros -1.55558+34024*
Rays @ Rockies8:40 PMRays -1.58191+10487590+1528
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners -1.53955+16
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs 1.57589+1456
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PM LIVEOrioles -1.5 live8993+411801-79
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PM LIVEReds -1.5 live7467-7
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PM LIVEGuardians -1.5 live8189+84
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PM LIVEPhillies -1.5 live9193+2267769-8
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PM LIVEYankees -1.5 live6574+9598316-67
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PM LIVERed Sox -1.5 live7278+6386086+2646
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PM LIVEBraves -1.5 live8894+641

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMUnder 9.53554+19665098+4844
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMOver 7.55959+03311-22
Dodgers @ Cubs8:05 PMOver 98281-15051+1
Giants @ Rangers8:05 PMOver 86057-38099+1954
Blue Jays @ Astros8:10 PMOver 8.58182+13254-21
Rays @ Rockies8:40 PMOver 117977-2
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMOver 7.56754-134349+611
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 98169-12506-44
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PM LIVEOver 9.5 live5260+8116396+3334
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PM LIVEOver 9 live8386+38696+1018*
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PM LIVEOver 7.5 live6152-96739-28
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PM LIVEOver 9 live6674+8388082+222
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PM LIVEOver 8 live8387+4198061-19
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PM LIVEOver 9 live7775-26780+133
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PM LIVEOver 9 live6066+6295023-27
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) = line moved toward this side (confirm), = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.