Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 6 · 1:30 AM ET 89 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

No plays where both books agree right now.
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Dodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 94% monCubs-192→+158observed live
Twins @ RoyalsSPREADRoyals 66% monTwins-184→+167observed live
Pirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 82% monPirates-210→+165observed live
Padres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 70% monD-backs-222→+120observed live
Giants @ RangersMLRangers 69% monGiants-172→-158observed live
Blue Jays @ AstrosSPREADAstros 79% monBlue Jays-182→-115observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction

MatchupFirst pitchStatusScore (A–H) Closing money-fav (ML)ConvTrajectoryResult
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 5, 2:10 PMFinal5–4Astros 79%0money side lost ✗
Dodgers @ CubsAug 5, 2:20 PMFinal6–7Dodgers 94%77money side lost ✗
Giants @ RangersAug 5, 2:35 PMFinal0–6Rangers 69%0money side won ✓
Rays @ RockiesAug 5, 3:10 PMFinal4–0Rays 88%11money side won ✓
Angels @ OriolesAug 5, 6:35 PMFinal2–5Orioles 78%0money side won ✓
Mets @ GuardiansAug 5, 6:40 PMFinal6–5Mets 74%36money side won ✓
Athletics @ RedsAug 5, 6:40 PMFinal2–3Reds 80%0money side won ✓
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 5, 6:40 PMFinal10–4Phillies 94%5money side lost ✗
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 5, 7:05 PMFinal3–1Yankees 77%0money side lost ✗
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 5, 7:10 PMFinal0–4Red Sox 81%0money side won ✓
Marlins @ BravesAug 5, 7:15 PMFinal1–4Braves 88%0money side won ✓
Twins @ RoyalsAug 5, 7:40 PMFinal1–2Royals 66%0money side won ✓
Pirates @ BrewersAug 5, 7:40 PMFinal2–4Brewers 82%38money side won ✓
Tigers @ MarinersAug 5, 9:40 PMFinal2–4Mariners 59%0money side won ✓
Padres @ D-backsAug 5, 9:40 PMFinal4–10Padres 70%0money side lost ✗

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
60% (52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67% (58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45% (39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43% (36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57% (34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (6/9)100% (9/9)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build61% (11/18)61% (11/18)
flat60% (25/42)60% (25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM57% (34/60)+$276
Moneyline47% (7/15)−$1
Total · Over75% (3/4)+$182
Total · Under53% (10/19)+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)67% (14/21)+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
— none this slate —
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DKAthletics @ Reds FINALMLReds 75%-137→-129 sustained-19Athletics ML +146 ✗Total
DKWhite Sox @ Red Sox FINALMLRed Sox 95%-126→-119 sustained+3White Sox ML +126 ✗
DKWhite Sox @ Red Sox FINALTOTALUnder 100%8.5→9 sustained+0Over 8 -116 ✗
DKTigers @ Mariners FINALMLMariners 84%-155→-125 sustained+13Tigers ML +130 ✗
DKTigers @ Mariners FINALTOTALOver 100%8→7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -103 ✓C
DKAngels @ Orioles FINALTOTALUnder 57%8→8.5 sustained-44Over 8 -105 ✗
DKAngels @ Orioles FINALMLOrioles 78%-142→-134 faded+4Angels ML +120 ✗
DKDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 66%9.5→10 sustained-64Over 10 -105 ✓SpreadAC
DKMarlins @ Braves FINALMLBraves 100%-131→-123 faded+0Marlins ML +112 ✗
DKTwins @ Royals FINALTOTALOver 0%9→8.5 sustained+0Under 8.5 -100 ✓SpreadAC
DKMets @ Guardians FINALTOTALOver 0%8.5→7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -109 ✗
DKPirates @ Brewers FINALMLBrewers 85%-137→-127 faded+2Pirates ML +115 ✗
DKGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 80%-170→-147 sustained+3Giants ML +136 ✗AC
DKCardinals @ Yankees FINALMLYankees 82%-156→-146 sustained-22Cardinals ML +136 ✓
DKRays @ Rockies FINALMLRays 85%-167→-153 sustained+6Rockies ML +141 ✗
DKNationals @ Phillies FINALMLPhillies 85%-174→-168 faded-17Nationals ML +172 ✓
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros FINALTOTALUnder 62%7.5→8 sustained-13Over 8 -112 ✓
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros FINALSPREADAstros 86%-182→-115 faded+3Blue Jays +1.5 -105 ✓
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALSPREADDodgers 71%-192→+158 sustained+20Cubs +1.5 -187 ✓Spread
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 60%9.5→10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 ✓SpreadDC
ActionGiants @ Rangers FINALSPREADRangers 74%+120→+126 sustained+10Giants +1.5 -153 ✗
ActionGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 70%-172→-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136 ✗DC
ActionAngels @ Orioles FINALMLOrioles 88%-135→-122 sustained-10Angels ML +120 ✗D
ActionAngels @ Orioles FINALSPREADOrioles 81%+145→+152 faded+4Angels +1.5 -175 ✗
ActionAthletics @ Reds FINALTOTALOver 64%10→9.5 sustained+8Under 9.5 -115 ✓Total
ActionAthletics @ Reds FINALSPREADReds 82%+135→+142 sustained+3Athletics +1.5 -146 ✓Total
ActionAthletics @ Reds FINALMLReds 85%-155→-149 faded-5Athletics ML +146 ✗Total
ActionCardinals @ Yankees FINALMLYankees 85%-156→-150 sustained-8Cardinals ML +136 ✓
ActionTwins @ Royals FINALTOTALOver 81%9→8.5 sustained-2Under 8.5 -100 ✓SpreadC
ActionTwins @ Royals FINALSPREADRoyals 69%-184→+167 faded+10Twins -1.5 +165 ✗Spread
ActionPirates @ Brewers FINALSPREADBrewers 78%-210→+165 sustained+11Pirates +1.5 -200 ✗
ActionPadres @ D-backs FINALTOTALOver 89%9.5→8.5 sustained+2Under 8.5 -105 ✗C
ActionPadres @ D-backs FINALSPREADPadres 73%-222→+120 faded+6Diamondbacks +1.5 -144 ✓
CircaDodgers @ Cubs FINALMLDodgers 55%+106→+112 sustained+39Cubs ML -115 ✓Spread
CircaDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 60%9.5→10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 ✓SpreadDA
CircaGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 70%-171→-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136 ✗DA
CircaAngels @ Orioles FINALMLOrioles 88%-136→-120 sustained-10Angels ML +120 ✗D
CircaMarlins @ Braves FINALTOTALOver 77%9→8 sustained+1Under 8.5 -116 ✓
CircaTwins @ Royals FINALTOTALOver 81%9→8.5 sustained-2Under 8.5 -100 ✓SpreadA
CircaTigers @ Mariners FINALTOTALOver 74%8→7.5 sustained+7Under 7.5 -103 ✓D
CircaPadres @ D-backs FINALMLPadres 76%-116→-102 sustained-6Diamondbacks ML +119 ✓
CircaPadres @ D-backs FINALTOTALOver 89%9.5→9 faded+2Under 8.5 -105 ✗A
×

⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONGBlue Jays @ Astros FINALOver 8 ✓51 (+13)38 (-29)money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONGDodgers @ Cubs FINALDodgers -1.5 ✗91 (+20) ()high volume
PREMIUMMets @ Guardians FINALGuardians 1.5 ✓67 (+15)80 (+30)Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONGMets @ Guardians FINALMets ML -102 ✓74 (+23)7 (-10)high volume
STRONGCardinals @ Yankees FINALYankees -1.5 ✗81 (+7)100 (+11)Circa money +11 — sharp book agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 5, 2:10 PM FINALAstros ML -223 ✗✓8479-5–93100+742▸❄
Dodgers @ CubsAug 5, 2:20 PM FINALDodgers ML -100 ✗✓5594+3977▸❄7053-17–
Giants @ RangersAug 5, 2:35 PM FINALRangers ML -158 ✓✓7069-1–438-35–
Rays @ RockiesAug 5, 3:10 PM FINALRays ML -159 ✓✓8688+211▸❄5843-15–
Angels @ OriolesAug 5, 6:35 PM FINALOrioles ML -140 ✓✓8878-10–6984+1572▸
Athletics @ RedsAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALReds ML -166 ✓✓8580-5–5085+3556▸❄
Mets @ GuardiansAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALMets ML -102 ✓5174+2336▸❄177-10–
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALPhillies ML -194 ✗✓✓9394+15▸3869+3185▸❄
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 5, 7:05 PM FINALYankees ML -151 ✗✓8577-8–6260-2–
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 5, 7:10 PM FINALRed Sox ML -140 ✓✓8981-8–7893+1563▸❄
Marlins @ BravesAug 5, 7:15 PM FINALBraves ML -128 ✓✓✓8788+1–8185+4–
Twins @ RoyalsAug 5, 7:40 PM FINALRoyals ML -117 ✓✓✓6366+3–6164+359
Pirates @ BrewersAug 5, 7:40 PM FINALBrewers ML -131 ✓✓8082+238▸❄6541-24–
Tigers @ MarinersAug 5, 9:40 PM FINALMariners ML -150 ✓✓5459+5–––
Padres @ D-backsAug 5, 9:40 PM FINALPadres ML -132 ✗✓7670-6––19▸

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 5, 2:10 PM FINALAstros -1.5 ✗✓8689+3–8585+0–
Dodgers @ CubsAug 5, 2:20 PM FINALDodgers -1.5 ✗✓7191+2024▸❄––
Giants @ RangersAug 5, 2:35 PM FINALRangers -1.5 ✓✓7484+10–––
Rays @ RockiesAug 5, 3:10 PM FINALRays -1.5 ✓✓7761-16–7595+2032*❄
Angels @ OriolesAug 5, 6:35 PM FINALOrioles -1.5 ✓✓8185+4–––
Athletics @ RedsAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALReds -1.5 ✗✓8285+34▸❄––
Mets @ GuardiansAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALGuardians 1.5 ✓✓5267+1571▸❄5080+3025*❄
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALPhillies -1.5 ✗✓8587+2–7559-16–
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 5, 7:05 PM FINALYankees -1.5 ✗✓✓7481+74❄89100+1119❄
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 5, 7:10 PM FINALRed Sox -1.5 ✓✓8893+554▸❄–28*❄
Marlins @ BravesAug 5, 7:15 PM FINALBraves -1.5 ✓✓8391+87▸❄–25*❄
Twins @ RoyalsAug 5, 7:40 PM FINALRoyals 1.5 ✓✓6979+1064▸––
Pirates @ BrewersAug 5, 7:40 PM FINALBrewers -1.5 ✓✓7889+11–––
Tigers @ MarinersAug 5, 9:40 PM FINALMariners -1.5 ✓✓5355+2–––
Padres @ D-backsAug 5, 9:40 PM FINALPadres -1.5 ✗✓7379+6–––

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ AstrosAug 5, 2:10 PM FINALOver 8 ✓3851+1338▸❄6738-29–
Dodgers @ CubsAug 5, 2:20 PM FINALUnder 10 ✗6050-10–1812-6–
Giants @ RangersAug 5, 2:35 PM FINALUnder 8.5 ✓6257-5–––
Rays @ RockiesAug 5, 3:10 PM FINALUnder 11 ✓✓4953+4–2564+3942▸❄
Angels @ OriolesAug 5, 6:35 PM FINALOver 8 ✗4954+547▸5022-28–
Athletics @ RedsAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALOver 9.5 ✗6472+850▸753-72–
Mets @ GuardiansAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALUnder 7.5 ✗5151+0–5055+5–
Nationals @ PhilliesAug 5, 6:40 PM FINALOver 9.5 ✓6480+1641––
Cardinals @ YankeesAug 5, 7:05 PM FINALUnder 8.5 ✓5750-7–78100+2225▸❄
White Sox @ Red SoxAug 5, 7:10 PM FINALUnder 8 ✓5260+817▸❄3828-10–
Marlins @ BravesAug 5, 7:15 PM FINALOver 8.5 ✗7778+123❄8853-35–
Twins @ RoyalsAug 5, 7:40 PM FINALOver 8.5 ✗8179-2–––
Pirates @ BrewersAug 5, 7:40 PM FINALUnder 7 ✓5954-5–4463+1962❄
Tigers @ MarinersAug 5, 9:40 PM FINALOver 7.5 ✗7481+729❄––
Padres @ D-backsAug 5, 9:40 PM FINALOver 8.5 ✓8991+222▸–41▸
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) ▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.