Updated Aug 5 · 10:15 AM ET29 snapshotsActionCircaevery 15m
🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
Guardians ML -110
Mets @ Guardians
AN 58% +9Circa 85% +35
2,539 bets fading
SPREAD
Guardians 1.5
Mets @ Guardians
AN 62% +12Circa 80% +30
2,539 bets conv 48
ML
Mariners ML -151
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 49% +7Circa 98% +23
2,307 bets fading
TOTAL
Under 8.5
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 55% +2Circa 78% +11
4,937 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 55% mon
Athletics
-155→-146
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 80% mon
Pirates
-210→+163
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 70% mon
D-backs
-222→+126
observed live
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 86% mon
Blue Jays
-182→+110
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
59%(42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66%(47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41%(28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55%(27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
75%(6/8)
100%(8/8)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
57%(17/30)
53%(16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
55%(27/49)
+$87
Moneyline
50%(7/14)
+$99
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(8/16)
−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(11/16)
+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 70%
-155→-147 sustained
+1
Tigers ML +125
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 83%
-142→-118 sustained
+4
Angels ML +105
AC
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 80%
-131→-123 sustained
-20
Marlins ML +110
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 70%
-137→-123 sustained
-4
Pirates ML +111
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
TOTAL
Under 59%
7.5→8 sustained
-13
Over 8 -115
Action
Angels @ Orioles
SPREAD
Orioles 81%
+145→+159 sustained
-5
Angels +1.5 -191
Action
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 88%
-135→-125 sustained
-53
Angels ML +105
DC
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 81%
-210→+163 sustained
+8
Pirates +1.5 -199
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 88%
-136→-120 sustained
-53
Angels ML +105
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 84%
-167→-158 faded
+7
Rockies ML +140
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 88%
-182→+110 faded
+3
Blue Jays +1.5 -133
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 73%
-192→-180 faded
+20
Cubs -1.5 +155
Spread
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 85%
-155→-146 faded
-30
Athletics ML +125
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 70%
-222→+126 faded
+20
Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 74%
-137→-129 sustained
-48
Athletics ML +125
A
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 92%
-126→-119 sustained
-7
White Sox ML +115
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 53%
8→8.5 sustained
-51
Over 8 -105
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 82%
-156→-146 sustained
-53
Cardinals ML +135
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 85%
-174→-168 faded
-71
Nationals ML +165
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 69%
+135→+142 sustained
+19
Athletics +1.5 -155
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 84%
-156→-150 sustained
-10
Cardinals ML +135
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Blue Jays @ Astros
Over 8
54 (+13)
36 (-31)
money 54% vs public tickets 41%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers ML +107
75 (+21)
17 (-33)
high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers 1.5
93 (+20)
()
high volume
STRONG
Angels @ Orioles
Angels ML +105
65 (+53)
()
money 65% vs public tickets 12%; high volume
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians 1.5
62 (+12)
80 (+30)
Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -110
58 (+9)
85 (+35)
Circa money +35 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 85% of handle here
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners ML -151
49 (+7)
98 (+23)
Circa money +23 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros ML -191
✓
83
86
+3
39▸
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers ML +107
✓
54
75
+21
40
50
17
-33
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers ML -181
✓
70
73
+3
35▸
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays ML -163
✓
86
90
+4
16▸
40
6
-34
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Angels ML +105
12
65
+53
85▸
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -151
✓
85
55
-30
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -110
✓
✓
49
58
+9
13▸
50
85
+35
73▸
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -193
✓
90
96
+6
55▸
33
8
-25
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -158
✓
84
74
-10
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -133
✓
88
88
+0
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -127
✓
88
88
+0
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Twins ML +105
46
68
+22
39▸
67
48
-19
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -132
✓
79
80
+1
17▸
80
27
-53
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Tigers ML +125
58
51
-7
–
25
2
-23
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -125
✓
73
70
-3
–
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
88
91
+3
–
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers 1.5
✓
73
93
+20
45
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
72
89
+17
29
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
76
81
+5
10▸
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
81
76
-5
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
69
88
+19
47▸
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians 1.5
✓
✓
50
62
+12
48▸
50
80
+30
25*❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
84
88
+4
18▸
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
74
79
+5
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
89
85
-4
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
84
87
+3
4▸❄
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
75
75
+0
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
81
89
+8
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
54
66
+12
32
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
70
90
+20
18▸
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Over 8
41
54
+13
36▸
67
36
-31
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Under 9.5
60
56
-4
–
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Under 8.5
60
52
-8
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Under 11.5
49
57
+8
35
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Under 8
67
67
+0
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
48
50
+2
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Under 8
66
73
+7
20▸
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
57
66
+9
34
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Under 8.5
61
59
-2
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 8.5
✓
53
55
+2
–
67
78
+11
4▸*❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 8.5
58
57
-1
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Over 8.5
49
54
+5
44▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Under 7.5
69
66
-3
–
80
73
-7
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 7.5
52
56
+4
18
33
8
-25
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Under 9
51
51
+0
–
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.