Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 6 · 7:30 AM ET 18 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

MLML+RL
Pirates ML +117
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 41% +18Circa 89% +56
2,382 bets
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 96% +6Circa 95% +45
2,211 bets
MLML+RL
Guardians ML -111
Mets @ Guardians
AN 61% +14Circa 98% +18
3,059 bets conv 51
SPREAD
Red Sox -1.5
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 88% +1Circa 97% +30
2,847 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

No money-vs-line-movement conflicts right now.

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
60% (52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67% (58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45% (39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43% (36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57% (34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (6/9)100% (9/9)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build61% (11/18)61% (11/18)
flat60% (25/42)60% (25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM57% (34/60)+$276
Moneyline47% (7/15)−$1
Total · Over75% (3/4)+$182
Total · Under53% (10/19)+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)67% (14/21)+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxMLRed Sox 94%-192→-182 sustained+5White Sox ML +154
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 77%-131→-124 sustained-55Tigers ML +110
DKAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 86%-192→-183 sustained-2Angels ML +167
DKNationals @ PhilliesMLPhillies 90%-358→-314 sustained+7Nationals ML +287
DKNationals @ PhilliesTOTALUnder 75%8.5→9 sustained-51Over 9 -112
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionAthletics @ RedsMLReds 87%-167→-159 sustained-14Athletics ML +137
ActionBlue Jays @ CubsMLCubs 62%-102→+106 sustained+3Blue Jays ML -122
ActionBlue Jays @ CubsTOTALOver 66%8→7.5 sustained-2Under 7.5 -110
ActionBlue Jays @ CubsSPREADCubs 55%-178→-168 sustained-2Blue Jays -1.5 +140
ActionTigers @ MarinersSPREADMariners 59%+155→+165 sustained+19Tigers +1.5 -200
ActionTwins @ RoyalsTOTALUnder 64%8.5→9 sustained+6Over 9 -100
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaMets @ GuardiansTOTALOver 64%8→7.5 sustained-9Under 7.5 -107
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKAngels @ OriolesTOTALUnder 73%9.5→10 sustained+10Over 9.5 -115
ActionAthletics @ RedsSPREADReds 77%+115→+121 faded+8Athletics +1.5 -145
ActionMets @ GuardiansMLMets 53%-111→-105 sustained-14Guardians ML -111
ActionTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 59%-132→-124 sustained-4Tigers ML +110D

Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
PREMIUMMets @ GuardiansGuardians ML -11161 (+14)98 (+18)Circa money +18 — sharp book agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; high volume
STRONGPirates @ BrewersPirates ML +11741 (+18)89 (+56)Circa money +56 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 89% of handle here
STRONGMarlins @ BravesBraves -1.596 (+6)95 (+45)Circa money +45 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 95% of handle here

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMOrioles ML -1889190-18696+1018*
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMReds ML -1598773-14
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMGuardians ML -1114761+14518098+1825*
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMBrewers ML -1347759-186711-56
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMCubs ML +1066265+3436-37
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PMMariners ML -1285955-4
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMPhillies ML -3458683-3
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -1879084-6
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -1518486+219
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals ML -1256071+11497174+3
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres ML -1064064+2465

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMOrioles -1.58993+47
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMReds -1.57785+823
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMGuardians 1.56158-3
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMBrewers -1.56985+1653
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMCubs 1.55553-2
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PMMariners -1.55978+199
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMPhillies -1.59498+428
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.58788+1306797+3025*
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.59096+6245095+4525*
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals -1.54766+1969
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs 1.57283+1149

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMUnder 9.55451-3
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMUnder 9.56963-6
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMOver 7.56455-9
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMOver 7.55152+121
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMOver 7.56664-2
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PMOver 7.55556+113
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMOver 94850+21
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMUnder 96458-6
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMUnder 96258-4
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMUnder 96470+642
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 95454+0
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) = line moved toward this side (confirm), = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.