Updated 8:30 AM ET22 snapshotsActionCircaevery 15m
🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Over 8
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 51% +9Circa 88% +38
1,661 bets
MLML+RL
Phillies ML -173
Nationals @ Phillies
AN 98% +7Circa 90% +40
1,827 bets conv 56
MLML+RL
Mariners ML -151
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 58% +17Circa 98% +23
1,661 bets
ML
Guardians ML -105
Mets @ Guardians
AN 59% +9Circa 98% +31
1,913 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
No money-vs-line-movement conflicts right now.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
59%(42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66%(47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41%(28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55%(27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
75%(6/8)
100%(8/8)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
57%(17/30)
53%(16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
55%(27/49)
+$87
Moneyline
50%(7/14)
+$99
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(8/16)
−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(11/16)
+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 75%
-137→-129 sustained
-56
Athletics ML +115
A
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 58%
8.5→8 sustained
+10
Under 8.5 -117
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 97%
-126→-119 sustained
-13
White Sox ML +107
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 88%
-142→-128 sustained
+10
Angels ML +115
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 84%
-131→-123 sustained
-32
Marlins ML +110
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 82%
-156→-146 sustained
-61
Cardinals ML +125
A
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 86%
-182→+115 sustained
+4
Blue Jays +1.5 -139
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
TOTAL
Under 55%
7.5→8 sustained
-9
Over 8 -115
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 86%
-155→-135 sustained
-27
Athletics ML +115
D
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 85%
-156→-150 sustained
-11
Cardinals ML +125
D
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 80%
-210→+155 sustained
+8
Pirates +1.5 -190
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Under 58%
7.5→8 sustained
-9
Over 8 -105
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 68%
-222→+135 sustained
+22
Diamondbacks +1.5 -160
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 85%
-167→-158 faded
+6
Rockies ML +141
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 83%
-174→-168 faded
-73
Nationals ML +147
ML
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 72%
-192→-183 faded
+20
Cubs -1.5 +151
Spread
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 68%
+135→+142 sustained
+28
Athletics +1.5 -171
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers ML +105
77 (+23)
17 (-33)
high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers 1.5
92 (+20)
()
high volume
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -105
59 (+9)
98 (+31)
Circa money +31 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here
STRONG
Nationals @ Phillies
Phillies ML -173
98 (+7)
90 (+40)
Circa money +40 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 90% of handle here
PREMIUM
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners ML -151
58 (+17)
98 (+23)
Circa money +23 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; money 58% vs public tickets 41%
PREMIUM
Tigers @ Mariners
Over 8
51 (+9)
88 (+38)
Circa money +38 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 88% of handle here; money 51% vs public tickets 42%
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros ML -183
✓
83
84
+1
35▸❄
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers ML +105
✓
54
77
+23
48❄
50
17
-33
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers ML -181
✓
69
73
+4
38▸❄
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays ML -164
✓
87
92
+5
34▸❄
40
6
-34
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Angels ML +115
12
73
+61
66❄
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -135
✓
86
59
-27
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -105
✓
50
59
+9
–
67
98
+31
40▸*
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -173
✓
✓
91
98
+7
56▸❄
50
90
+40
25*❄
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -150
✓
85
74
-11
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -125
✓
88
85
-3
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -127
✓
88
89
+1
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -120
✓
54
68
+14
47❄
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -140
✓
80
79
-1
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners ML -151
✓
✓
41
58
+17
29❄
75
98
+23
25*
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -125
✓
73
62
-11
–
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
86
90
+4
–
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers 1.5
✓
72
92
+20
32▸❄
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
68
86
+18
30❄
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
77
90
+13
49▸❄
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
79
63
-16
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
68
96
+28
53❄
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Mets -1.5
49
63
+14
36▸❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
86
92
+6
46▸❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
75
82
+7
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
90
85
-5
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
82
97
+15
48▸❄
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
✓
74
65
-9
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
80
88
+8
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
54
68
+14
38❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
68
90
+22
21▸❄
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Over 8
45
54
+9
27▸❄
67
36
-31
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Under 9.5
56
56
+0
–
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Under 8.5
56
54
-2
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Under 11.5
50
60
+10
43❄
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Under 8
65
67
+2
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Under 9.5
55
57
+2
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Under 8.5
62
71
+9
39❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
53
63
+10
38❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Under 8.5
59
59
+0
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 8.5
✓
52
56
+4
–
67
78
+11
19*❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 8.5
59
57
-2
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9
58
52
-6
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Under 7
64
60
-4
–
80
73
-7
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 8
✓
42
51
+9
29▸❄
50
88
+38
25*❄
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Under 9.5
54
55
+1
7❄
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.