Strong RLM Locks →Updated Aug 6 ยท 1:30 AM ET89 snapshotsActionCircaevery 15m
๐ฏ Top plays โ both books agree ยท money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
No plays where both books agree right now.
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in โ the line doesnโt keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
โ ๏ธ Signal conflicts ยท money vs line movement disagree โ surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 94% mon
Cubs
-192โ+158
observed live
Twins @ Royals
SPREAD
Royals 66% mon
Twins
-184โ+167
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 82% mon
Pirates
-210โ+165
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 70% mon
D-backs
-222โ+120
observed live
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 69% mon
Giants
-172โ-158
observed live
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 79% mon
Blue Jays
-182โ-115
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games โ the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture ยท unverified means the move only shows up openโnow (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched โ likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
๐ก Live & final ยท started games โ did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (AโH)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Blue Jays @ Astros
Aug 5, 2:10 PM
Final
5โ4
Astros 79%
0
money side lost โ
Dodgers @ Cubs
Aug 5, 2:20 PM
Final
6โ7
Dodgers 94%
77
money side lost โ
Giants @ Rangers
Aug 5, 2:35 PM
Final
0โ6
Rangers 69%
0
money side won โ
Rays @ Rockies
Aug 5, 3:10 PM
Final
4โ0
Rays 88%
11
money side won โ
Angels @ Orioles
Aug 5, 6:35 PM
Final
2โ5
Orioles 78%
0
money side won โ
Mets @ Guardians
Aug 5, 6:40 PM
Final
6โ5
Mets 74%
36
money side won โ
Athletics @ Reds
Aug 5, 6:40 PM
Final
2โ3
Reds 80%
0
money side won โ
Nationals @ Phillies
Aug 5, 6:40 PM
Final
10โ4
Phillies 94%
5
money side lost โ
Cardinals @ Yankees
Aug 5, 7:05 PM
Final
3โ1
Yankees 77%
0
money side lost โ
White Sox @ Red Sox
Aug 5, 7:10 PM
Final
0โ4
Red Sox 81%
0
money side won โ
Marlins @ Braves
Aug 5, 7:15 PM
Final
1โ4
Braves 88%
0
money side won โ
Twins @ Royals
Aug 5, 7:40 PM
Final
1โ2
Royals 66%
0
money side won โ
Pirates @ Brewers
Aug 5, 7:40 PM
Final
2โ4
Brewers 82%
38
money side won โ
Tigers @ Mariners
Aug 5, 9:40 PM
Final
2โ4
Mariners 59%
0
money side won โ
Padres @ D-backs
Aug 5, 9:40 PM
Final
4โ10
Padres 70%
0
money side lost โ
๐งฎ Feedback scorecard ยท captured signals vs actual results โ accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ ยท line came our way
67%(58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite โ1.5
45%(39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43%(36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM ยท fade the public
57%(34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
61%(11/18)
61%(11/18)
flat
60%(25/42)
60%(25/42)
RLM sharp side โ by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(34/60)
+$276
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
โ$1
Total ยท Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total ยท Under
53%(10/19)
+$19
Run line โ1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
โ$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(14/21)
+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below โ closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) โ do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high โ our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
๐ Reverse line movement ยท public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick ยท fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings ยท sustained โ DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
โ none this slate โ
Action Network ยท sustained โ consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
โ none this slate โ
Circa ยท sustained โ sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
โ none this slate โ
Live & finished โ closing RLM read & result
DK
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
ML
Reds 75%
-137โ-129 sustained
-19
Athletics ML +146 โ
Total
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox FINAL
ML
Red Sox 95%
-126โ-119 sustained
+3
White Sox ML +126 โ
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox FINAL
TOTAL
Under 100%
8.5โ9 sustained
+0
Over 8 -116 โ
DK
Tigers @ Mariners FINAL
ML
Mariners 84%
-155โ-125 sustained
+13
Tigers ML +130 โ
DK
Tigers @ Mariners FINAL
TOTAL
Over 100%
8โ7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -103 โ
C
DK
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
TOTAL
Under 57%
8โ8.5 sustained
-44
Over 8 -105 โ
DK
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 78%
-142โ-134 faded
+4
Angels ML +120 โ
DK
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Under 66%
9.5โ10 sustained
-64
Over 10 -105 โ
Spread
AC
DK
Marlins @ Braves FINAL
ML
Braves 100%
-131โ-123 faded
+0
Marlins ML +112 โ
DK
Twins @ Royals FINAL
TOTAL
Over 0%
9โ8.5 sustained
+0
Under 8.5 -100 โ
Spread
AC
DK
Mets @ Guardians FINAL
TOTAL
Over 0%
8.5โ7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -109 โ
DK
Pirates @ Brewers FINAL
ML
Brewers 85%
-137โ-127 faded
+2
Pirates ML +115 โ
DK
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 80%
-170โ-147 sustained
+3
Giants ML +136 โ
AC
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees FINAL
ML
Yankees 82%
-156โ-146 sustained
-22
Cardinals ML +136 โ
DK
Rays @ Rockies FINAL
ML
Rays 85%
-167โ-153 sustained
+6
Rockies ML +141 โ
DK
Nationals @ Phillies FINAL
ML
Phillies 85%
-174โ-168 faded
-17
Nationals ML +172 โ
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
TOTAL
Under 62%
7.5โ8 sustained
-13
Over 8 -112 โ
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
SPREAD
Astros 86%
-182โ-115 faded
+3
Blue Jays +1.5 -105 โ
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
SPREAD
Dodgers 71%
-192โ+158 sustained
+20
Cubs +1.5 -187 โ
Spread
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5โ10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 โ
Spread
DC
Action
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
SPREAD
Rangers 74%
+120โ+126 sustained
+10
Giants +1.5 -153 โ
Action
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 70%
-172โ-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136 โ
DC
Action
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 88%
-135โ-122 sustained
-10
Angels ML +120 โ
D
Action
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
SPREAD
Orioles 81%
+145โ+152 faded
+4
Angels +1.5 -175 โ
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
TOTAL
Over 64%
10โ9.5 sustained
+8
Under 9.5 -115 โ
Total
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
SPREAD
Reds 82%
+135โ+142 sustained
+3
Athletics +1.5 -146 โ
Total
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
ML
Reds 85%
-155โ-149 faded
-5
Athletics ML +146 โ
Total
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees FINAL
ML
Yankees 85%
-156โ-150 sustained
-8
Cardinals ML +136 โ
Action
Twins @ Royals FINAL
TOTAL
Over 81%
9โ8.5 sustained
-2
Under 8.5 -100 โ
Spread
C
Action
Twins @ Royals FINAL
SPREAD
Royals 69%
-184โ+167 faded
+10
Twins -1.5 +165 โ
Spread
Action
Pirates @ Brewers FINAL
SPREAD
Brewers 78%
-210โ+165 sustained
+11
Pirates +1.5 -200 โ
Action
Padres @ D-backs FINAL
TOTAL
Over 89%
9.5โ8.5 sustained
+2
Under 8.5 -105 โ
C
Action
Padres @ D-backs FINAL
SPREAD
Padres 73%
-222โ+120 faded
+6
Diamondbacks +1.5 -144 โ
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
ML
Dodgers 55%
+106โ+112 sustained
+39
Cubs ML -115 โ
Spread
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5โ10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 โ
Spread
DA
Circa
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 70%
-171โ-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136 โ
DA
Circa
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 88%
-136โ-120 sustained
-10
Angels ML +120 โ
D
Circa
Marlins @ Braves FINAL
TOTAL
Over 77%
9โ8 sustained
+1
Under 8.5 -116 โ
Circa
Twins @ Royals FINAL
TOTAL
Over 81%
9โ8.5 sustained
-2
Under 8.5 -100 โ
Spread
A
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners FINAL
TOTAL
Over 74%
8โ7.5 sustained
+7
Under 7.5 -103 โ
D
Circa
Padres @ D-backs FINAL
ML
Padres 76%
-116โ-102 sustained
-6
Diamondbacks ML +119 โ
Circa
Padres @ D-backs FINAL
TOTAL
Over 89%
9.5โ9 faded
+2
Under 8.5 -105 โ
A
×
โญ Strongest signals ยท Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONG
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
Over 8 โ
51 (+13)
38 (-29)
money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
Dodgers -1.5 โ
91 (+20)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians FINAL
Guardians 1.5 โ
67 (+15)
80 (+30)
Circa money +30 โ sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians FINAL
Mets ML -102 โ
74 (+23)
7 (-10)
high volume
STRONG
Cardinals @ Yankees FINAL
Yankees -1.5 โ
81 (+7)
100 (+11)
Circa money +11 โ sharp book agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume
๐ฐ Moneyline ยท both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
Aug 5, 2:10 PM FINAL
Astros ML -223 โ
โ
84
79
-5
โ
93
100
+7
42โธโ
Dodgers @ Cubs
Aug 5, 2:20 PM FINAL
Dodgers ML -100 โ
โ
55
94
+39
77โธโ
70
53
-17
โ
Giants @ Rangers
Aug 5, 2:35 PM FINAL
Rangers ML -158 โ
โ
70
69
-1
โ
43
8
-35
โ
Rays @ Rockies
Aug 5, 3:10 PM FINAL
Rays ML -159 โ
โ
86
88
+2
11โธโ
58
43
-15
โ
Angels @ Orioles
Aug 5, 6:35 PM FINAL
Orioles ML -140 โ
โ
88
78
-10
โ
69
84
+15
72โธ
Athletics @ Reds
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Reds ML -166 โ
โ
85
80
-5
โ
50
85
+35
56โธโ
Mets @ Guardians
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Mets ML -102 โ
51
74
+23
36โธโ
17
7
-10
โ
Nationals @ Phillies
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Phillies ML -194 โ
โ
โ
93
94
+1
5โธ
38
69
+31
85โธโ
Cardinals @ Yankees
Aug 5, 7:05 PM FINAL
Yankees ML -151 โ
โ
85
77
-8
โ
62
60
-2
โ
White Sox @ Red Sox
Aug 5, 7:10 PM FINAL
Red Sox ML -140 โ
โ
89
81
-8
โ
78
93
+15
63โธโ
Marlins @ Braves
Aug 5, 7:15 PM FINAL
Braves ML -128 โ
โ
โ
87
88
+1
โ
81
85
+4
โ
Twins @ Royals
Aug 5, 7:40 PM FINAL
Royals ML -117 โ
โ
โ
63
66
+3
โ
61
64
+3
59
Pirates @ Brewers
Aug 5, 7:40 PM FINAL
Brewers ML -131 โ
โ
80
82
+2
38โธโ
65
41
-24
โ
Tigers @ Mariners
Aug 5, 9:40 PM FINAL
Mariners ML -150 โ
โ
54
59
+5
โ
โ
โ
Padres @ D-backs
Aug 5, 9:40 PM FINAL
Padres ML -132 โ
โ
76
70
-6
โ
โ
19โธ
๐ Run line ยท both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
Aug 5, 2:10 PM FINAL
Astros -1.5 โ
โ
86
89
+3
โ
85
85
+0
โ
Dodgers @ Cubs
Aug 5, 2:20 PM FINAL
Dodgers -1.5 โ
โ
71
91
+20
24โธโ
โ
โ
Giants @ Rangers
Aug 5, 2:35 PM FINAL
Rangers -1.5 โ
โ
74
84
+10
โ
โ
โ
Rays @ Rockies
Aug 5, 3:10 PM FINAL
Rays -1.5 โ
โ
77
61
-16
โ
75
95
+20
32*โ
Angels @ Orioles
Aug 5, 6:35 PM FINAL
Orioles -1.5 โ
โ
81
85
+4
โ
โ
โ
Athletics @ Reds
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Reds -1.5 โ
โ
82
85
+3
4โธโ
โ
โ
Mets @ Guardians
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Guardians 1.5 โ
โ
52
67
+15
71โธโ
50
80
+30
25*โ
Nationals @ Phillies
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Phillies -1.5 โ
โ
85
87
+2
โ
75
59
-16
โ
Cardinals @ Yankees
Aug 5, 7:05 PM FINAL
Yankees -1.5 โ
โ
โ
74
81
+7
4โ
89
100
+11
19โ
White Sox @ Red Sox
Aug 5, 7:10 PM FINAL
Red Sox -1.5 โ
โ
88
93
+5
54โธโ
โ
28*โ
Marlins @ Braves
Aug 5, 7:15 PM FINAL
Braves -1.5 โ
โ
83
91
+8
7โธโ
โ
25*โ
Twins @ Royals
Aug 5, 7:40 PM FINAL
Royals 1.5 โ
โ
69
79
+10
64โธ
โ
โ
Pirates @ Brewers
Aug 5, 7:40 PM FINAL
Brewers -1.5 โ
โ
78
89
+11
โ
โ
โ
Tigers @ Mariners
Aug 5, 9:40 PM FINAL
Mariners -1.5 โ
โ
53
55
+2
โ
โ
โ
Padres @ D-backs
Aug 5, 9:40 PM FINAL
Padres -1.5 โ
โ
73
79
+6
โ
โ
โ
๐ Totals ยท both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
Aug 5, 2:10 PM FINAL
Over 8 โ
38
51
+13
38โธโ
67
38
-29
โ
Dodgers @ Cubs
Aug 5, 2:20 PM FINAL
Under 10 โ
60
50
-10
โ
18
12
-6
โ
Giants @ Rangers
Aug 5, 2:35 PM FINAL
Under 8.5 โ
62
57
-5
โ
โ
โ
Rays @ Rockies
Aug 5, 3:10 PM FINAL
Under 11 โ
โ
49
53
+4
โ
25
64
+39
42โธโ
Angels @ Orioles
Aug 5, 6:35 PM FINAL
Over 8 โ
49
54
+5
47โธ
50
22
-28
โ
Athletics @ Reds
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Over 9.5 โ
64
72
+8
50โธ
75
3
-72
โ
Mets @ Guardians
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Under 7.5 โ
51
51
+0
โ
50
55
+5
โ
Nationals @ Phillies
Aug 5, 6:40 PM FINAL
Over 9.5 โ
64
80
+16
41
โ
โ
Cardinals @ Yankees
Aug 5, 7:05 PM FINAL
Under 8.5 โ
57
50
-7
โ
78
100
+22
25โธโ
White Sox @ Red Sox
Aug 5, 7:10 PM FINAL
Under 8 โ
52
60
+8
17โธโ
38
28
-10
โ
Marlins @ Braves
Aug 5, 7:15 PM FINAL
Over 8.5 โ
77
78
+1
23โ
88
53
-35
โ
Twins @ Royals
Aug 5, 7:40 PM FINAL
Over 8.5 โ
81
79
-2
โ
โ
โ
Pirates @ Brewers
Aug 5, 7:40 PM FINAL
Under 7 โ
59
54
-5
โ
44
63
+19
62โ
Tigers @ Mariners
Aug 5, 9:40 PM FINAL
Over 7.5 โ
74
81
+7
29โ
โ
โ
Padres @ D-backs
Aug 5, 9:40 PM FINAL
Over 8.5 โ
89
91
+2
22โธ
โ
41โธ
diff = money% โ bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0โ100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm โ round-trip)sparkline = money%โbets% over all snapshots (the shape)โธ = line moved toward this side (confirm), โธ = line drifting awayโ Agree = both books' diffs same way nowโ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (โฅ45)RLโ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability โ bands: 25โ44 building, 45โ64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3ร. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots โ a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1โ2 real updates; โ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume โ its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.