🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
Dodgers ML -102
Dodgers @ Cubs
AN 82% +29Circa 71% +8
1,772 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
No money-vs-line-movement conflicts right now.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
59%(42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66%(47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41%(28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55%(27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
75%(6/8)
100%(8/8)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
57%(17/30)
53%(16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
55%(27/49)
+$87
Moneyline
50%(7/14)
+$99
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(8/16)
−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(11/16)
+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 83%
-142→-135 sustained
+9
Angels ML +112
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 83%
-167→-154 sustained
+16
Rockies ML +140
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 79%
-182→+118 sustained
+14
Blue Jays +1.5 -145
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 67%
-192→-185 sustained
+24
Cubs -1.5 +155
Action
Athletics @ Reds
TOTAL
Over 56%
10→9.5 sustained
+3
Under 9.5 -103
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 87%
-155→-136 sustained
-36
Athletics ML +115
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 74%
-210→+157 sustained
+23
Pirates +1.5 -193
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 60%
-222→+137 sustained
+35
Diamondbacks +1.5 -164
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers ML -102
82 (+29)
71 (+8)
Circa money +8 — sharp book agrees; Circa 71% of handle here
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros ML -176
✓
82
85
+3
29▸*
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers ML -102
✓
✓
53
82
+29
40▸*
63
71
+8
25*❄
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers ML -181
✓
69
75
+6
31▸*
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays ML -161
✓
88
94
+6
28▸*
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles ML -135
✓
89
84
-5
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -136
✓
87
51
-36
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -105
50
69
+19
24*
50
27
-23
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -173
✓
93
86
-7
–
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -153
✓
87
73
-14
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -125
✓
88
86
-2
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -130
✓
88
89
+1
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -120
✓
53
53
+0
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -136
✓
80
86
+6
36▸*
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners ML -150
✓
42
68
+26
37*
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -116
✓
72
63
-9
–
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
79
93
+14
13▸*
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers 1.5
✓
67
91
+24
31▸*
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
59
85
+26
40*
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
76
92
+16
30*
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
76
98
+22
40*
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
63
93
+30
40*
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Mets -1.5
44
51
+7
29*
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
86
90
+4
25▸*❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
76
91
+15
26*
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
92
90
-2
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
78
99
+21
40▸*
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
✓
74
65
-9
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
74
97
+23
21▸*
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
48
60
+12
11*
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
60
95
+35
24▸*
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Over 8
56
58
+2
–
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Under 9.5
47
51
+4
14*
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Over 8.5
55
55
+0
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Under 11.5
51
57
+6
19*
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Under 8
54
55
+1
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
56
59
+3
29▸*
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Under 8.5
49
54
+5
15*
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
53
61
+8
19*
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Over 8.5
57
53
-4
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Over 8.5
60
52
-8
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Over 8.5
57
56
-1
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9
60
56
-4
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Over 7.5
59
56
-3
–
25
27
+2
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 8
66
66
+0
–
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Under 9.5
52
54
+2
9*
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.