Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 5 ยท 7:30 PM ET 66 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

๐ŸŽฏ Top plays โ€” both books agree ยท money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

TOTAL
Under 8.5
Padres @ D-backs
AN 14% +1Circa 100% +33
12,606 bets
SPREAD
Mariners -1.5
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 55% +2Circa 76% +1
11,066 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in โ€” the line doesnโ€™t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

โš ๏ธ Signal conflicts ยท money vs line movement disagree โ€” surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Dodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 94% monCubs-192โ†’+158observed live
Twins @ RoyalsSPREADRoyals 66% monTwins-184โ†’+167observed live
Pirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 82% monPirates-210โ†’+165observed live
Padres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 76% monD-backs-222โ†’+120observed live
Giants @ RangersMLRangers 69% monGiants-172โ†’-158observed live
Blue Jays @ AstrosSPREADAstros 79% monBlue Jays-182โ†’-115observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games โ€” the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture ยท unverified means the move only shows up openโ†’now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched โ€” likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

๐Ÿ“ก Live & final ยท started games โ€” did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction

MatchupFirst pitchStatusScore (Aโ€“H) Closing money-fav (ML)ConvTrajectoryResult
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PMFinal5โ€“4Astros 79%0money side lost โœ—
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PMFinal6โ€“7Dodgers 94%77money side lost โœ—
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMFinal0โ€“6Rangers 69%0money side won โœ“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMFinal4โ€“0Rays 88%11money side won โœ“
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMIn Progress0โ€“0Orioles 78%0tied
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMIn Progress2โ€“0Mets 74%36money side leading
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMIn Progress1โ€“1Reds 80%0tied
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMIn Progress1โ€“0Phillies 94%5money side trailing
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMDelayed Start DELAYED0โ€“0Yankees 77%0tied
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMIn Progress0โ€“1Red Sox 81%0money side leading
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMIn Progress0โ€“0Braves 88%0tied

๐Ÿงฎ Feedback scorecard ยท captured signals vs actual results โ€” accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
59% (44/75)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ ยท line came our way
67% (50/75)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite โˆ’1.5
45% (34/75)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
44% (32/73)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM ยท fade the public
56% (31/55)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (6/9)100% (9/9)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build56% (9/16)62% (10/16)
flat58% (19/33)55% (18/33)
RLM sharp side โ€” by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM56% (31/55)+$220
Moneyline47% (7/15)โˆ’$1
Total ยท Over75% (3/4)+$182
Total ยท Under50% (8/16)โˆ’$68
Run line โˆ’1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)โˆ’$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)68% (13/19)+$207
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below โ€” closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (75 games) โ€” do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high โ€” our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

๐Ÿ”„ Reverse line movement ยท public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick ยท fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings ยท sustained โ€” DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 75%-155โ†’-130 sustained+13Tigers ML +127
Action Network ยท sustained โ€” consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 87%9.5โ†’8.5 sustained-1Under 8.5 -109DC
Circa ยท sustained โ€” sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 72%8โ†’7.5 sustained+3Under 7.5 -110
CircaPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 87%9.5โ†’8.5 sustained-1Under 8.5 -109DA
Faded โ€” line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 100%9.5โ†’9 faded+0Under 8.5 -109AC
ActionPadres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 73%-222โ†’+120 faded+10Diamondbacks +1.5 -144
Now gone โ€” qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 0%8โ†’7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -110C
DKCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 82%-156โ†’-146 sustained-22Cardinals ML +144
Live & finished โ€” closing RLM read & result
DKAthletics @ Reds LIVEMLReds 75%-137โ†’-129 sustained-19Athletics ML +146 liveTotal
DKWhite Sox @ Red Sox LIVEMLRed Sox 95%-126โ†’-119 sustained+3White Sox ML +126 live
DKWhite Sox @ Red Sox LIVETOTALUnder 100%8.5โ†’9 sustained+0Over 8 -116 live
DKAngels @ Orioles LIVETOTALUnder 57%8โ†’8.5 sustained-44Over 8 -105 live
DKAngels @ Orioles LIVEMLOrioles 78%-142โ†’-134 faded+4Angels ML +120 live
DKDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 66%9.5โ†’10 sustained-64Over 10 -105 โœ“SpreadAC
DKMarlins @ Braves LIVEMLBraves 100%-131โ†’-123 faded+0Marlins ML +112 live
DKTwins @ Royals LIVETOTALOver 0%9โ†’8.5 sustained+0Under 8.5 -100 liveAC
DKMets @ Guardians LIVETOTALOver 0%8.5โ†’7.5 sustained+0Under 7.5 -109 live
DKPirates @ Brewers LIVEMLBrewers 83%-137โ†’-127 faded-8Pirates ML +115 live
DKGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 80%-170โ†’-147 sustained+3Giants ML +136 โœ—AC
DKRays @ Rockies FINALMLRays 85%-167โ†’-153 sustained+6Rockies ML +141 โœ—
DKNationals @ Phillies LIVEMLPhillies 85%-174โ†’-168 faded-17Nationals ML +172 live
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros FINALTOTALUnder 62%7.5โ†’8 sustained-13Over 8 -112 โœ“
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros FINALSPREADAstros 86%-182โ†’-115 faded+3Blue Jays +1.5 -105 โœ“
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALSPREADDodgers 71%-192โ†’+158 sustained+20Cubs +1.5 -187 โœ“Spread
ActionDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 60%9.5โ†’10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 โœ“SpreadDC
ActionGiants @ Rangers FINALSPREADRangers 74%+120โ†’+126 sustained+10Giants +1.5 -153 โœ—
ActionGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 70%-172โ†’-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136 โœ—DC
ActionAngels @ Orioles LIVEMLOrioles 88%-135โ†’-122 sustained-10Angels ML +120 liveD
ActionAngels @ Orioles LIVESPREADOrioles 81%+145โ†’+152 faded+4Angels +1.5 -175 live
ActionAthletics @ Reds LIVETOTALOver 64%10โ†’9.5 sustained+8Under 9.5 -115 liveTotal
ActionAthletics @ Reds LIVESPREADReds 82%+135โ†’+142 sustained+3Athletics +1.5 -146 liveTotal
ActionAthletics @ Reds LIVEMLReds 85%-155โ†’-149 faded-5Athletics ML +146 liveTotal
ActionTwins @ Royals LIVETOTALOver 81%9โ†’8.5 sustained-2Under 8.5 -100 liveC
ActionTwins @ Royals LIVESPREADRoyals 69%-184โ†’+167 faded+10Twins +1.5 -200 live
ActionPirates @ Brewers LIVESPREADBrewers 78%-210โ†’+165 sustained+11Pirates +1.5 -200 live
CircaDodgers @ Cubs FINALMLDodgers 55%+106โ†’+112 sustained+39Cubs ML -115 โœ“Spread
CircaDodgers @ Cubs FINALTOTALUnder 60%9.5โ†’10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 โœ“SpreadDA
CircaGiants @ Rangers FINALMLRangers 70%-171โ†’-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136 โœ—DA
CircaAngels @ Orioles LIVEMLOrioles 88%-136โ†’-120 sustained-10Angels ML +120 liveD
CircaMarlins @ Braves LIVETOTALOver 77%9โ†’8 sustained+1Under 8.5 -116 live
CircaTwins @ Royals LIVETOTALOver 81%9โ†’8.5 sustained-2Under 8.5 -100 liveA

โญ Strongest signals ยท Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONGBlue Jays @ Astros FINALOver 8 โœ“51 (+13)38 (-29)money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONGDodgers @ Cubs FINALDodgers -1.5 โœ—91 (+20) ()high volume
PREMIUMMets @ Guardians LIVEGuardians 1.5 live67 (+15)80 (+30)Circa money +30 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONGMets @ Guardians LIVEMets ML -102 live74 (+23)7 (-10)high volume

๐Ÿ’ฐ Moneyline ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners ML -150โœ“5357+4โ€“6358-5โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres ML -131โœ“7776-1โ€“7996+1724โ–ธ
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM FINALAstros ML -223 โœ—โœ“8479-5โ€“93100+742โ–ธโ„
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM FINALDodgers ML -100 โœ—โœ“5594+3977โ–ธโ„7053-17โ€“
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PM FINALRangers ML -158 โœ“โœ“7069-1โ€“438-35โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PM FINALRays ML -159 โœ“โœ“8688+211โ–ธโ„5843-15โ€“
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PM LIVEOrioles ML -140 liveโœ“8878-10โ€“6984+1556โ„
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PM LIVEReds ML -166 liveโœ“8580-5โ€“5085+3556โ–ธโ„
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PM LIVEMets ML -102 live5174+2336โ–ธโ„177-10โ€“
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PM LIVEPhillies ML -194 liveโœ“โœ“9394+15โ–ธ3869+3185โ–ธ
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PM LIVERed Sox ML -140 liveโœ“8981-8โ€“7893+1563โ–ธ
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PM LIVEBraves ML -128 liveโœ“โœ“8788+1โ€“8185+4โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PM LIVERoyals ML -117 liveโœ“โœ“6366+3โ€“6572+74
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PM LIVEBrewers ML -131 liveโœ“8082+238โ–ธโ„6441-23โ€“

๐Ÿ“ Run line ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners -1.5โœ“โœ“5355+2โ€“7576+1โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres -1.5โœ“7383+10โ€“โ€“โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM FINALAstros -1.5 โœ—โœ“8689+3โ€“8585+0โ€“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM FINALDodgers -1.5 โœ—โœ“7191+2024โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PM FINALRangers -1.5 โœ“โœ“7484+10โ€“โ€“โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PM FINALRays -1.5 โœ“โœ“7761-16โ€“7595+2032*โ„
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PM LIVEOrioles -1.5 liveโœ“8185+4โ€“โ€“โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PM LIVEReds -1.5 liveโœ“8285+34โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PM LIVEGuardians 1.5 liveโœ“5267+1571โ–ธโ„5080+3025*โ„
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PM LIVEPhillies -1.5 liveโœ“8587+2โ€“7559-16โ€“
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PM LIVERed Sox -1.5 liveโœ“8893+554โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PM LIVEBraves -1.5 liveโœ“8391+87โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PM LIVERoyals -1.5 liveโœ“6979+1034โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PM LIVEBrewers -1.5 liveโœ“7889+11โ€“โ€“โ€“

๐Ÿ“Š Totals ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMOver 7.57275+34โ„5015-35โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 8.58786-1โ€“330-33โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM FINALOver 8 โœ“3851+1338โ–ธโ„6738-29โ€“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM FINALUnder 10 โœ—6050-10โ€“1812-6โ€“
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PM FINALUnder 8.5 โœ“6257-5โ€“โ€“โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PM FINALUnder 11 โœ“โœ“4953+4โ€“2564+3942โ–ธโ„
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PM LIVEOver 8 live4954+547โ–ธ5022-28โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PM LIVEOver 9.5 live6472+850โ–ธ753-72โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PM LIVEUnder 7.5 live5151+0โ€“5055+5โ€“
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PM LIVEOver 9.5 live6480+1641โ€“โ€“
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PM LIVEUnder 8 live5260+817โ–ธโ„3828-10โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PM LIVEOver 8.5 live7778+123โ„8853-35โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PM LIVEOver 8.5 live8179-2โ€“โ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PM LIVEUnder 7 live5954-5โ€“4463+1947โ–ธ
diff = money% โˆ’ bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0โ€“100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm โˆ’ round-trip) sparkline = money%โˆ’bets% over all snapshots (the shape) โ–ธ = line moved toward this side (confirm), โ–ธ = line drifting away โœ“ Agree = both books' diffs same way now โœ“ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (โ‰ฅ45) RLโœ“ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability โ€” bands: 25โ€“44 building, 45โ€“64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3ร—. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots โ€” a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1โ€“2 real updates; โ„ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume โ€” its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.