Strong RLM Locks →Updated Aug 6 · 11:30 AM ET34 snapshotsActionCircaevery 15m
🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
Pirates ML +114
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 45% +17Circa 94% +51
6,427 bets
MLML+RL
Athletics ML +143
Athletics @ Reds
AN 21% +6Circa 87% +27
6,608 bets fading
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 94% +4Circa 100% +25
5,558 bets fading
MLML+RL
Guardians ML -125
Mets @ Guardians
AN 74% +19Circa 96% +9
9,011 bets conv 77
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 89% mon
Marlins
-156→-146
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67%(58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43%(36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
61%(11/18)
61%(11/18)
flat
60%(25/42)
60%(25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(34/60)
+$276
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
53%(10/19)
+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(14/21)
+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 92%
-192→-180 sustained
-11
White Sox ML +159
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 73%
-131→-124 sustained
-26
Tigers ML +112
Spread
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 67%
-126→-119 sustained
+3
Twins ML +107
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 65%
-133→-124 sustained
-35
Pirates ML +114
C
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 71%
8.5→9 sustained
-28
Over 9 -100
A
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 64%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -114
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
SPREAD
Mariners 64%
+155→+165 sustained
+18
Tigers +1.5 -200
Spread
Action
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 57%
8.5→9 sustained
-5
Over 9 -100
D
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 68%
8.5→9 sustained
+1
Over 9 -100
Action
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 58%
-116→-107 sustained
-15
Padres ML -107
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Mets @ Guardians
TOTAL
Over 61%
8→7.5 sustained
-7
Under 7.5 -116
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 72%
-134→-128 sustained
-17
Pirates ML +114
D
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 86%
-192→-183 faded
-6
Angels ML +167
ML
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 86%
-157→-140 faded
-13
Marlins ML +127
AC
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 88%
-358→-332 faded
+1
Nationals ML +277
Action
Marlins @ Braves
SPREAD
Braves 90%
+125→+131 faded
+4
Marlins +1.5 -158
Action
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 85%
-156→-146 faded
+4
Marlins ML +127
DC
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 85%
-153→-145 faded
+4
Marlins ML +127
DA
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 62%
9.5→10 sustained
-41
Over 9.5 -115
ML
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 85%
-167→-161 sustained
-6
Athletics ML +143
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 80%
+115→+123 sustained
-7
Athletics +1.5 -143
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
ML
Cubs 60%
-102→+101 faded
+2
Blue Jays ML -116
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 59%
-132→-124 sustained
-4
Tigers ML +112
Spread
D
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Angels @ Orioles
Orioles ML -187
97 (+7)
91 (+12)
Circa money +12 — sharp book agrees; Circa 91% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Athletics @ Reds
Athletics ML +143
21 (+6)
87 (+27)
Circa money +27 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 87% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -125
74 (+19)
96 (+9)
Circa money +9 — sharp book agrees; Circa 96% of handle here; high volume; steaming +2 money% since prev
PREMIUM
Pirates @ Brewers
Pirates ML +114
45 (+17)
94 (+51)
Circa money +51 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 94% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners -1.5
82 (+18)
()
high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Orioles ML -187
✓
✓
90
97
+7
41▸❄
79
91
+12
38
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Reds ML -166
✓
85
79
-6
–
40
13
-27
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Guardians ML -125
✓
✓
55
74
+19
77▸
87
96
+9
17▸
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers ML -130
✓
72
55
-17
–
57
6
-51
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Cubs ML -100
60
62
+2
–
57
12
-45
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners ML -128
✓
59
55
-4
–
86
86
+0
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies ML -341
✓
86
83
-3
–
33
45
+12
51▸
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -182
✓
89
82
-7
–
83
94
+11
20*
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -146
✓
85
89
+4
12▸❄
50
8
-42
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -122
✓
57
56
-1
–
67
79
+12
37
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -107
42
57
+15
25❄
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
89
91
+2
6▸❄
92
84
-8
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
80
73
-7
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Guardians -1.5
✓
71
80
+9
32▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
67
74
+7
–
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Blue Jays -1.5
55
63
+8
27❄
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
64
82
+18
15▸❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
✓
94
96
+2
30▸❄
67
93
+26
25*
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
83
87
+4
31▸❄
75
97
+22
27*
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
✓
90
94
+4
–
75
100
+25
28*
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
✓
49
64
+15
48❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
70
70
+0
–
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
Over 9.5
50
57
+7
31
33
13
-20
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Under 9.5
62
58
-4
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
Over 7.5
61
54
-7
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Over 7.5
55
54
-1
–
50
32
-18
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Over 7.5
✓
64
67
+3
28▸❄
50
56
+6
12*
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Over 8
54
62
+8
23▸❄
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Under 9
57
52
-5
–
50
86
+36
25*
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 9
65
65
+0
–
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 9
64
59
-5
–
50
96
+46
25*❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9
68
69
+1
32▸❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Under 9
51
51
+0
–
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.