🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Under 9.5
Twins @ Royals
AN 56% +22Circa 98% +55
8,138 bets conv 71
ML
Royals ML +125
Twins @ Royals
AN 47% +19Circa 62% +37
8,138 bets
TOTAL
Under 9
Padres @ D-backs
AN 39% +19Circa 100% +33
8,103 bets
TOTAL
Under 7.5
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 65% +17Circa 66% +33
8,951 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Cubs
ML
Dodgers 88% mon
Cubs
-198→-190
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 92% mon
Pirates
-167→-150
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
57%(32/56)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68%(38/56)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
43%(24/56)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
38%(21/55)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(21/37)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(4/6)
100%(6/6)
firm
62%(8/13)
77%(10/13)
build
58%(7/12)
75%(9/12)
flat
52%(13/25)
52%(13/25)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(21/37)
+$92
Moneyline
55%(6/11)
+$132
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(5/10)
−$41
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(9/13)
+$104
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (56 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 77%
-136→-129 sustained
-36
Athletics ML +115
AC
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 67%
-142→-118 sustained
-9
Tigers ML +105
AC
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 61%
8→7.5 sustained
-56
Under 7.5 -105
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Twins 79%
-149→-140 sustained
-19
Royals ML +125
Total
DK
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 67%
9→9.5 sustained
-48
Over 9.5 -110
Total
DK
Mets @ Guardians
ML
Guardians 78%
-155→-128 sustained
-9
Mets ML +115
C
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 83%
-158→-141 sustained
+12
Pirates ML +125
A
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 60%
8.5→7 sustained
-10
Under 7.5 -116
AC
DK
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Under 71%
8.5→9 sustained
-8
Over 9 -101
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 100%
-250→-149 sustained
+0
Cardinals ML +165
C
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 100%
-190→-157 sustained
+0
Rockies ML +145
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 79%
-141→-135 sustained
+8
Athletics ML +115
DC
Action
White Sox @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 69%
9.5→9 sustained
-1
Under 9 -115
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 57%
8→7.5 sustained
-1
Under 7.5 -116
DC
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 71%
-128→-119 sustained
+17
Cubs +1.5 -101
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
ML
Dodgers 82%
-198→-190 sustained
+6
Cubs ML +165
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 58%
-156→-125 sustained
-12
Tigers ML +105
DC
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Mets @ Guardians
ML
Guardians 79%
-145→-130 sustained
+6
Mets ML +115
D
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 85%
-149→-140 sustained
+8
Marlins ML +125
ML
D
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 57%
8.5→7.5 sustained
-1
Under 7.5 -116
DA
Circa
Blue Jays @ Astros
TOTAL
Over 60%
9→8.5 sustained
+3
Under 8.5 -115
Circa
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 63%
-145→-128 sustained
-7
Blue Jays ML +110
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
TOTAL
Over 77%
11.5→11 sustained
-1
Under 11 -105
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 58%
-142→-120 sustained
-12
Tigers ML +105
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 79%
-156→-150 faded
+3
Angels ML +127
ML
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 87%
-156→-146 faded
+11
Marlins ML +125
ML
C
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 81%
-167→-150 faded
+11
Pirates ML +125
D
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 80%
+135→+143 faded
+4
Pirates +1.5 -170
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
D-backs 77%
+150→+160 faded
+13
Padres -1.5 +165
Action
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 80%
9.5→9 faded
-19
Under 9 -120
Circa
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 79%
-136→-129 faded
+8
Athletics ML +115
DA
Circa
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 78%
-235→-192 faded
+1
Cardinals ML +165
D
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Rays @ Rockies
TOTAL
Over 0%
11.5→11 sustained
+0
Under 11 -105
C
Action
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Over 63%
9→8.5 sustained
+6
Under 9 -120
Action
White Sox @ Red Sox
SPREAD
Red Sox 68%
+150→+156 faded
+9
White Sox +1.5 -169
Action
Marlins @ Braves
TOTAL
Over 56%
9.5→9 sustained
+8
Under 9 -102
ML
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 62%
9→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 9 -105
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 52%
8.5→8 sustained
-17
Under 7.5 -105
D
Circa
Giants @ Rangers
TOTAL
Over 58%
8→7.5 sustained
-3
Under 8 -110
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 89%
-161→-149 sustained
+0
Rockies ML +145
D
Circa
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 80%
9→8.5 sustained
-19
Under 9 -120
A
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles
Over 9
67 (+16)
100 (+25)
Circa money +25 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians
Under 7.5
49 (+9)
69 (+36)
Circa money +36 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
PREMIUM
White Sox @ Red Sox
Red Sox -1.5
77 (+9)
86 (+36)
Circa money +36 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 86% of handle here; high volume; steaming +1 money% since prev
PREMIUM
Marlins @ Braves
Over 9
64 (+8)
98 (+31)
Circa money +31 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; high volume; steaming +2 money% since prev
PREMIUM
Twins @ Royals
Under 9.5
56 (+22)
98 (+55)
Circa money +55 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; money 56% vs public tickets 34%; high volume
PREMIUM
Twins @ Royals
Royals ML +125
47 (+19)
62 (+37)
Circa money +37 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
PREMIUM
Giants @ Rangers
Rangers ML -196
91 (+22)
38 (+18)
Circa money +18 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Giants @ Rangers
Rangers -1.5
83 (+23)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Rays @ Rockies
Rays -1.5
90 (+8)
90 (+15)
Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Tigers @ Mariners
Under 7.5
65 (+17)
66 (+33)
Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners -1.5
57 (+14)
()
money 57% vs public tickets 43%; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Tigers ML +105
54 (+12)
35 (-21)
money 54% vs public tickets 42%; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles ML -150
✓
84
94
+10
51▸
67
64
-3
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -135
✓
79
87
+8
15▸❄
59
23
-36
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -135
✓
79
85
+6
36
84
51
-33
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -315
✓
89
95
+6
58▸
50
10
-40
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -196
✓
78
79
+1
4▸
63
6
-57
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -151
✓
78
65
-13
–
81
88
+7
48▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -151
✓
85
93
+8
48▸
83
75
-8
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Twins ML -150
72
53
-19
–
75
38
-37
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -150
✓
81
92
+11
23▸❄
82
15
-67
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers ML -190
✓
82
88
+6
5▸❄
38
31
-7
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers ML -196
✓
✓
69
91
+22
69▸❄
20
38
+18
25▸
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros ML -131
✓
63
56
-7
–
67
71
+4
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays ML -168
✓
89
89
+0
–
58
45
-13
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Tigers ML +105
42
54
+12
63▸❄
56
35
-21
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -120
✓
78
85
+7
30❄
75
69
-6
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
88
94
+6
17▸
75
1
-74
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
74
66
-8
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians -1.5
✓
78
91
+13
33
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
90
91
+1
21▸
–
22*❄
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
65
73
+8
53▸
75
12
-63
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
68
77
+9
63▸
50
86
+36
40*
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
88
95
+7
28❄
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
54
58
+4
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
80
84
+4
21▸❄
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers -1.5
✓
71
88
+17
27▸❄
62
19
-43
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
60
83
+23
81▸❄
–
–
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
55
54
-1
–
–
24*❄
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
✓
82
90
+8
43▸❄
75
90
+15
28❄
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
43
57
+14
–
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs -1.5
✓
77
90
+13
21▸❄
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Over 9
✓
51
67
+16
42▸❄
75
100
+25
17▸
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9
81
84
+3
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Over 7.5
60
51
-9
–
67
31
-36
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9
63
69
+6
34
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Over 8.5
75
81
+6
13
75
41
-34
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Over 9
69
68
-1
–
71
97
+26
36
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Over 9
✓
56
64
+8
54▸
67
98
+31
25*❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9.5
✓
34
56
+22
71▸❄
43
98
+55
44
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Over 7.5
57
56
-1
–
38
12
-26
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Over 9
62
61
-1
–
50
67
+17
40▸❄
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Over 8
58
55
-3
–
75
98
+23
55❄
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Over 8.5
60
63
+3
11❄
50
21
-29
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Over 11
77
76
-1
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Under 7.5
✓
48
65
+17
44▸❄
33
66
+33
40▸*❄
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
80
61
-19
–
33
0
-33
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.