Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 5 ยท 2:15 PM ET 45 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

๐ŸŽฏ Top plays โ€” both books agree ยท money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

MLML+RL
Athletics ML +130
Athletics @ Reds
AN 38% +21Circa 84% +34
4,685 bets
TOTAL
Under 8.5
Padres @ D-backs
AN 49% +3Circa 100% +50
6,255 bets
ML
Tigers ML +137
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 57% +3Circa 78% +47
5,417 bets
MLML+RL
Cardinals ML +135
Cardinals @ Yankees
AN 34% +16Circa 83% +33
4,897 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in โ€” the line doesnโ€™t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

โš ๏ธ Signal conflicts ยท money vs line movement disagree โ€” surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Dodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 94% monCubs-192โ†’+158observed live
Pirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 81% monPirates-210โ†’+165observed live
Padres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 67% monD-backs-222โ†’+125observed live
Giants @ RangersMLRangers 69% monGiants-172โ†’-158observed live
Blue Jays @ AstrosSPREADAstros 79% monBlue Jays-182โ†’-115observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games โ€” the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture ยท unverified means the move only shows up openโ†’now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched โ€” likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

๐Ÿงฎ Feedback scorecard ยท captured signals vs actual results โ€” accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
59% (42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ ยท line came our way
66% (47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite โˆ’1.5
45% (32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41% (28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM ยท fade the public
55% (27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam75% (6/8)100% (8/8)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build56% (9/16)62% (10/16)
flat57% (17/30)53% (16/30)
RLM sharp side โ€” by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM55% (27/49)+$87
Moneyline50% (7/14)+$99
Total ยท Over50% (1/2)โˆ’$3
Total ยท Under50% (8/16)โˆ’$68
Run line โˆ’1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)โˆ’$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)69% (11/16)+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below โ€” closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) โ€” do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high โ€” our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

๐Ÿ”„ Reverse line movement ยท public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick ยท fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings ยท sustained โ€” DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 68%8โ†’7.5 sustained+32Under 7.5 -110C
DKAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 78%-142โ†’-118 sustained+10Angels ML +105AC
DKTwins @ RoyalsMLRoyals 58%-120โ†’-113 sustained-21Twins ML +105
DKPadres @ D-backsTOTALOver 63%9.5โ†’8.5 sustained+34Under 8.5 -100
DKGiants @ RangersMLRangers 80%-170โ†’-147 sustained+4Giants ML +136AC
DKRays @ RockiesMLRays 85%-167โ†’-153 sustained+5Rockies ML +137
Action Network ยท sustained โ€” consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionGiants @ RangersSPREADRangers 74%+120โ†’+126 sustained+10Giants +1.5 -153
ActionGiants @ RangersMLRangers 70%-172โ†’-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136DC
ActionAngels @ OriolesSPREADOrioles 81%+145โ†’+165 sustained+2Angels +1.5 -200
ActionAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 87%-135โ†’-122 sustained-37Angels ML +105DC
ActionTwins @ RoyalsTOTALOver 65%9โ†’8.5 sustained-5Under 8.5 -102C
ActionPirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 80%-210โ†’+165 sustained+8Pirates +1.5 -200
Circa ยท sustained โ€” sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaGiants @ RangersMLRangers 70%-171โ†’-158 sustained-1Giants ML +136DA
CircaAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 87%-136โ†’-120 sustained-37Angels ML +105DA
CircaTwins @ RoyalsTOTALOver 65%9โ†’8.5 sustained-5Under 8.5 -102A
CircaTigers @ MarinersTOTALOver 58%8โ†’7.5 sustained+3Under 7.5 -110D
Faded โ€” line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 78%-131โ†’-122 faded-13Marlins ML +110
DKPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 68%-137โ†’-127 faded+7Pirates ML +114
ActionPadres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 73%-222โ†’+125 faded+8Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Now gone โ€” qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKAthletics @ RedsMLReds 75%-137โ†’-129 sustained-43Athletics ML +130
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxTOTALOver 50%8.5โ†’8 sustained+5Under 8 -103
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxMLRed Sox 91%-126โ†’-119 sustained-3White Sox ML +116
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 72%-155โ†’-140 sustained-3Tigers ML +137
DKAngels @ OriolesTOTALUnder 64%8โ†’8.5 sustained-57Over 8 -105
DKCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 83%-156โ†’-146 sustained-39Cardinals ML +135
DKNationals @ PhilliesMLPhillies 88%-174โ†’-168 faded-55Nationals ML +169
ActionAthletics @ RedsSPREADReds 74%+135โ†’+142 sustained+9Athletics +1.5 -155
ActionAthletics @ RedsMLReds 83%-155โ†’-149 faded-21Athletics ML +130
ActionCardinals @ YankeesMLYankees 82%-156โ†’-150 sustained-16Cardinals ML +135
ActionTwins @ RoyalsSPREADRoyals 70%-184โ†’+167 sustained+9Twins -1.5 +168
ActionTigers @ MarinersMLTigers 54%+125โ†’+137 sustained+3Mariners ML -155
Live & finished โ€” closing RLM read & result
DKDodgers @ Cubs LIVETOTALUnder 66%9.5โ†’10 sustained-64Over 10 -105 liveSpreadAC
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros LIVETOTALUnder 62%7.5โ†’8 sustained-13Over 8 -112 live
ActionBlue Jays @ Astros LIVESPREADAstros 86%-182โ†’-115 faded+3Blue Jays +1.5 -105 live
ActionDodgers @ Cubs LIVESPREADDodgers 71%-192โ†’+158 sustained+20Cubs +1.5 -187 liveSpread
ActionDodgers @ Cubs LIVETOTALUnder 60%9.5โ†’10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 liveSpreadDC
CircaDodgers @ Cubs LIVEMLDodgers 55%+106โ†’+112 sustained+39Cubs ML -115 liveSpread
CircaDodgers @ Cubs LIVETOTALUnder 60%9.5โ†’10 sustained-10Over 10 -105 liveSpreadDA

โญ Strongest signals ยท Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
STRONGRays @ RockiesRockies 1.543 (+20)10 (-23)high volume
PREMIUMAngels @ OriolesAngels ML +10550 (+37)40 (+9)Circa money +9 โ€” sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUMAthletics @ RedsAthletics ML +13038 (+21)84 (+34)Circa money +34 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 84% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMMets @ GuardiansGuardians 1.562 (+11)80 (+30)Circa money +30 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONGMets @ GuardiansGuardians ML -11256 (+6)87 (+9)Circa money +9 โ€” sharp book agrees; Circa 87% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMNationals @ PhilliesNationals ML +16917 (+8)94 (+16)Circa money +16 โ€” sharp book agrees; Circa 94% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMCardinals @ YankeesCardinals ML +13534 (+16)83 (+33)Circa money +33 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 83% of handle here; high volume
STRONGWhite Sox @ Red SoxUnder 866 (+6)64 (+14)Circa money +14 โ€” sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONGPirates @ BrewersOver 733 (+5)26 (+9)Circa money +9 โ€” sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUMTigers @ MarinersMariners -1.563 (+8)91 (+16)Circa money +16 โ€” sharp book agrees; Circa 91% of handle here; high volume
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONGBlue Jays @ Astros LIVEOver 8 live51 (+13)38 (-29)money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONGDodgers @ Cubs LIVEDodgers -1.5 live91 (+20) ()high volume

๐Ÿ’ฐ Moneyline ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMRangers ML -158โœ“7069-1โ€“468-38โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMRays ML -159โœ“8688+211โ–ธโ„5749-8โ€“
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles ML -1228750-37โ€“6960-9โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds ML -151โœ“8362-21โ€“5016-34โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians ML -112โœ“โœ“5056+68โ–ธโ„7887+937โ–ธ
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies ML -188โœ“9183-8โ€“226-16โ€“
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees ML -157โœ“8266-16โ€“5017-33โ€“
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -131โœ“8880-8โ€“8193+1259โ–ธ
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -125โœ“8585+0โ€“8798+1129*
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals ML -1175850-8โ€“6777+108โ„
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers ML -131โœ“7981+227โ–ธโ„6920-49โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMTigers ML +137โœ“5457+38โ–ธ3178+4762
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres ML -123โœ“7467-7โ€“6991+2264โ–ธ
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM LIVEAstros ML -223 liveโœ“8479-5โ€“93100+742โ–ธโ„
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEDodgers ML -100 liveโœ“5594+3977โ–ธโ„7053-17โ€“

๐Ÿ“ Run line ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMRangers -1.5โœ“7484+10โ€“โ€“โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMRays -1.5โœ“7757-20โ€“6790+2325*โ„
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles -1.58183+2โ€“โ€“โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds -1.5โœ“7483+913โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians 1.5โœ“โœ“5162+1153โ–ธโ„5080+3025*โ„
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies -1.5โœ“8284+214โ–ธ5021-29โ€“
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees -1.5โœ“7482+83โ€“โ€“
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.5โœ“8991+245โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.5โœ“8383+0โ€“โ€“โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals 1.57079+959โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers -1.5โœ“8088+8โ€“โ€“โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners -1.5โœ“5563+8โ€“7591+1618*
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres -1.5โœ“7381+8โ€“โ€“โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM LIVEAstros -1.5 liveโœ“8689+3โ€“8585+0โ€“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEDodgers -1.5 liveโœ“7191+2024โ–ธโ„โ€“โ€“

๐Ÿ“Š Totals ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMUnder 8.56257-5โ€“โ€“โ€“
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMUnder 11โœ“5054+4โ€“3373+4039โ–ธ
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMUnder 86159-2โ€“โ€“โ€“
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMOver 9.54959+1052โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMUnder 86669+3โ€“โ€“โ€“
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMOver 9.56368+56โ€“โ€“
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMUnder 8.56153-8โ€“6798+3128*โ„
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMUnder 8โœ“6066+611โ–ธ5064+1421โ–ธโ„
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMUnder 8.56056-4โ€“โ€“โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMOver 8.56560-5โ€“โ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMUnder 77267-5โ€“8374-9โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMOver 7.55861+385015-35โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 8.55451-3โ€“500-50โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PM LIVEOver 8 live3851+1338โ–ธโ„6738-29โ€“
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEUnder 10 live6050-10โ€“1812-6โ€“
diff = money% โˆ’ bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0โ€“100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm โˆ’ round-trip) sparkline = money%โˆ’bets% over all snapshots (the shape) โ–ธ = line moved toward this side (confirm), โ–ธ = line drifting away โœ“ Agree = both books' diffs same way now โœ“ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (โ‰ฅ45) RLโœ“ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability โ€” bands: 25โ€“44 building, 45โ€“64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3ร—. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots โ€” a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1โ€“2 real updates; โ„ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume โ€” its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.