🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Under 8.5
Padres @ D-backs
AN 26% +1Circa 100% +67
8,567 bets
SPREAD
Guardians 1.5
Mets @ Guardians
AN 67% +16Circa 80% +30
8,168 bets conv 68
TOTAL
Over 8
Angels @ Orioles
AN 47% +3Circa 95% +15
10,647 bets
SPREAD
Mariners -1.5
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 57% +2Circa 92% +12
7,376 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 94% mon
Cubs
-192→+158
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 81% mon
Pirates
-210→+165
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 76% mon
D-backs
-222→+125
observed live
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 69% mon
Giants
-172→-158
observed live
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 79% mon
Blue Jays
-182→-115
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Final
5–4
Astros 79%
0
money side lost ✗
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Final
0–6
Rangers 69%
0
money side won ✓
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
In Progress
6–7
Dodgers 94%
77
money side trailing
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
In Progress
4–0
Rays 88%
11
money side leading
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
59%(43/73)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66%(48/73)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(33/73)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
42%(30/71)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55%(29/53)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
75%(6/8)
100%(8/8)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
56%(18/32)
53%(17/32)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
55%(29/53)
+$71
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
67%(2/3)
+$86
Total · Under
50%(8/16)
−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(12/18)
+$154
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (73 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 55%
8.5→8 sustained
+6
Under 8 -103
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 58%
8→7.5 sustained
+29
Under 7.5 -110
C
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 72%
-155→-142 sustained
-4
Tigers ML +127
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 55%
-120→-108 sustained
-13
Twins ML +103
DK
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 59%
9.5→8.5 sustained
+33
Under 8.5 -100
AC
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Over 70%
9→8.5 sustained
-6
Under 8.5 -100
C
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 79%
-210→+165 sustained
+11
Pirates +1.5 -202
Action
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 75%
9.5→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -100
DC
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
TOTAL
Over 58%
9→8 sustained
+1
Under 8.5 -110
Circa
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Over 70%
9→8.5 sustained
-6
Under 8.5 -100
A
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 66%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -110
D
Circa
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 75%
9.5→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -100
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 78%
-142→-134 faded
+11
Angels ML +117
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 79%
-131→-123 faded
-20
Marlins ML +111
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 73%
-222→+125 faded
+10
Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 75%
-137→-129 sustained
-28
Athletics ML +146
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 90%
-126→-119 sustained
-4
White Sox ML +116
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 53%
8→8.5 sustained
-46
Over 8 -105
DK
Mets @ Guardians
TOTAL
Over 0%
8.5→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -108
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 83%
-156→-146 sustained
-33
Cardinals ML +140
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 87%
-174→-168 faded
-19
Nationals ML +169
Action
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 88%
-135→-122 sustained
-27
Angels ML +117
D
Action
Angels @ Orioles
SPREAD
Orioles 81%
+145→+152 faded
+4
Angels +1.5 -183
Action
Athletics @ Reds
TOTAL
Over 52%
10→9.5 sustained
+9
Under 9.5 -116
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 81%
+135→+142 sustained
+6
Athletics +1.5 -148
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 84%
-155→-149 faded
-9
Athletics ML +146
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 84%
-156→-150 sustained
-5
Cardinals ML +140
Action
Twins @ Royals
SPREAD
Royals 68%
-184→+167 sustained
+14
Twins -1.5 +165
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Tigers 50%
+125→+137 sustained
-5
Mariners ML -146
Circa
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 88%
-136→-120 sustained
-27
Angels ML +117
D
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Under 66%
9.5→10 sustained
-64
Over 10 -105 live
Spread
AC
DK
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 80%
-170→-147 sustained
+3
Giants ML +136 ✗
AC
DK
Rays @ Rockies LIVE
ML
Rays 85%
-167→-153 sustained
+6
Rockies ML +141 live
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
TOTAL
Under 62%
7.5→8 sustained
-13
Over 8 -112 ✓
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
SPREAD
Astros 86%
-182→-115 faded
+3
Blue Jays +1.5 -105 ✓
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
SPREAD
Dodgers 71%
-192→+158 sustained
+20
Cubs +1.5 -187 live
Spread
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5→10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 live
Spread
DC
Action
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
SPREAD
Rangers 74%
+120→+126 sustained
+10
Giants +1.5 -153 ✗
Action
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 70%
-172→-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136 ✗
DC
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
ML
Dodgers 55%
+106→+112 sustained
+39
Cubs ML -115 live
Spread
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5→10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 live
Spread
DA
Circa
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 70%
-171→-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136 ✗
DA
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Angels @ Orioles
Angels ML +117
39 (+27)
18 (-20)
high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians 1.5
67 (+16)
80 (+30)
Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONG
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
Over 8 ✓
51 (+13)
38 (-29)
money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs LIVE
Dodgers -1.5 live
91 (+20)
()
high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles ML -133
✓
88
61
-27
–
62
82
+20
44
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -163
✓
84
75
-9
–
53
85
+32
43▸
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -112
✓
✓
49
51
+2
3▸❄
77
79
+2
3▸
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -188
✓
93
83
-10
–
38
85
+47
73▸
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -161
✓
84
79
-5
–
57
67
+10
34▸
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -132
✓
89
81
-8
–
81
90
+9
54▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -128
✓
86
86
+0
–
81
78
-3
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -115
✓
61
54
-7
–
71
82
+11
47
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -131
✓
80
81
+1
28▸❄
63
20
-43
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners ML -146
✓
50
55
+5
–
58
7
-51
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -124
✓
76
76
+0
–
74
91
+17
24▸
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM FINAL
Astros ML -223 ✗
✓
84
79
-5
–
93
100
+7
42▸❄
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Dodgers ML -100 live
✓
55
94
+39
77▸❄
70
53
-17
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM FINAL
Rangers ML -158 ✓
✓
70
69
-1
–
43
8
-35
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM LIVE
Rays ML -159 live
✓
86
88
+2
11▸❄
58
43
-15
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
✓
81
85
+4
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
81
87
+6
8▸
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians 1.5
✓
✓
51
67
+16
68▸
50
80
+30
25*❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
85
86
+1
10▸
67
25
-42
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
74
81
+7
4
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
89
92
+3
50▸❄
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
84
89
+5
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
✓
68
82
+14
70▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
79
90
+11
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
✓
55
57
+2
–
80
92
+12
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
73
83
+10
–
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM FINAL
Astros -1.5 ✗
✓
86
89
+3
–
85
85
+0
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Dodgers -1.5 live
✓
71
91
+20
24▸❄
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM FINAL
Rangers -1.5 ✓
✓
74
84
+10
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM LIVE
Rays -1.5 live
✓
77
61
-16
–
75
95
+20
32*❄
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Under 8
56
53
-3
–
20
5
-15
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
52
61
+9
55▸
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Under 7.5
59
59
+0
–
63
97
+34
36▸❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
64
70
+6
25❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Under 8.5
59
52
-7
–
50
97
+47
46❄
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 8
56
64
+8
17▸
50
30
-20
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Over 8.5
58
59
+1
25
80
7
-73
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Over 8.5
70
64
-6
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Under 7
67
60
-7
–
54
65
+11
15▸
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 7.5
66
69
+3
6
60
16
-44
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 8.5
75
74
-1
–
67
0
-67
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM FINAL
Over 8 ✓
38
51
+13
38▸❄
67
38
-29
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM LIVE
Under 10 live
60
50
-10
–
18
12
-6
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM FINAL
Under 8.5 ✓
62
57
-5
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM LIVE
Under 11 live
✓
49
53
+4
–
25
64
+39
42▸❄
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.