🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
MLML+RL
White Sox ML +160
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 19% +7Circa 80% +44
10,385 bets
ML
Padres ML -107
Padres @ D-backs
AN 54% +9Circa 98% +38
4,432 bets fading
MLML+RL
Tigers ML +112
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 45% +6Circa 64% +37
7,441 bets
TOTAL
Over 7.5
Blue Jays @ Cubs
AN 71% +3Circa 90% +35
12,636 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 89% mon
Marlins
-156→-146
observed live
Mets @ Guardians
SPREAD
Guardians 92% mon
Mets
-182→+172
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 57% mon
Pirates
-132→-125
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM
In Progress
3–1
Orioles 93%
38
money side trailing
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM
Manager challenge
3–1
Reds 78%
0
money side trailing
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM
In Progress
0–2
Guardians 92%
85
money side leading
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67%(58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43%(36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
61%(11/18)
61%(11/18)
flat
60%(25/42)
60%(25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(34/60)
+$276
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
53%(10/19)
+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
67%(14/21)
+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 92%
-192→-180 sustained
-6
White Sox ML +160
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Under 58%
7.5→8 sustained
+7
Over 8 -116
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 73%
-131→-124 sustained
-24
Tigers ML +112
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Royals 64%
-126→-119 sustained
+0
Twins ML +107
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 63%
-133→-117 sustained
-16
Pirates ML +107
AC
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 70%
8.5→9 sustained
-27
Over 9 -100
A
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 71%
-132→-125 sustained
-14
Pirates ML +107
DC
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 68%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -115
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
SPREAD
Mariners 65%
+155→+165 sustained
+11
Tigers +1.5 -200
Action
Nationals @ Phillies
TOTAL
Under 56%
8.5→9 sustained
-6
Over 9 -100
D
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 69%
8.5→9 sustained
+1
Over 9 -100
Action
Padres @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 55%
-116→-107 sustained
-9
Padres ML -107
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 71%
-134→-115 sustained
-14
Pirates ML +107
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 87%
-157→-140 faded
-9
Marlins ML +127
AC
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 87%
-358→-332 faded
-1
Nationals ML +277
Action
Marlins @ Braves
SPREAD
Braves 89%
+125→+134 faded
+4
Marlins +1.5 -160
Action
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 86%
-156→-146 faded
+3
Marlins ML +127
DC
Circa
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 86%
-153→-145 faded
+3
Marlins ML +127
DA
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
Action
Blue Jays @ Cubs
ML
Cubs 58%
-102→+101 faded
+5
Blue Jays ML -115
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 61%
-132→-124 sustained
-6
Tigers ML +112
D
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Angels @ Orioles LIVE
ML
Orioles 84%
-192→-182 faded
-6
Angels ML +165 live
C
Action
Athletics @ Reds LIVE
SPREAD
Reds 79%
+115→+123 sustained
-3
Athletics +1.5 -145 live
Action
Athletics @ Reds LIVE
ML
Reds 85%
-167→-161 sustained
-7
Athletics ML +145 live
Action
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
TOTAL
Over 62%
7.5→7 sustained
-7
Under 7 -113 live
C
Action
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
SPREAD
Guardians 70%
-182→+172 faded
+12
Mets +1.5 -210 live
Circa
Angels @ Orioles LIVE
ML
Orioles 89%
-192→-179 faded
+4
Angels ML +165 live
D
Circa
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
TOTAL
Over 62%
8→7 sustained
-7
Under 7 -113 live
A
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
PREMIUM
Pirates @ Brewers
Pirates ML +107
43 (+14)
65 (+17)
Circa money +17 — sharp book agrees; high volume; steaming +18 money% since prev
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Tigers ML +112
45 (+6)
64 (+37)
Circa money +37 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONG
White Sox @ Red Sox
White Sox ML +160
19 (+7)
80 (+44)
Circa money +44 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Padres @ D-backs
Padres ML -107
54 (+9)
98 (+38)
Circa money +38 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; money 54% vs public tickets 45%; high volume
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles LIVE
Over 9.5 live
57 (+9)
44 (+11)
Circa money +11 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Athletics @ Reds LIVE
Athletics ML +145 live
22 (+7)
72 (+28)
Circa money +28 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 72% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers ML -125
✓
71
57
-14
–
52
35
-17
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Cubs ML -102
58
63
+5
16
65
31
-34
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners ML -128
✓
61
55
-6
–
73
36
-37
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies ML -345
✓
87
85
-2
–
50
35
-15
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -182
✓
88
81
-7
–
64
20
-44
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -146
✓
86
89
+3
11▸❄
67
11
-56
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals ML -122
✓
57
53
-4
–
65
82
+17
57
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -107
✓
45
54
+9
–
60
98
+38
40*❄
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM LIVE
Orioles ML -182 live
✓
89
93
+4
38▸
70
42
-28
–
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM LIVE
Reds ML -166 live
✓
85
78
-7
–
56
28
-28
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM LIVE
Guardians ML -125 live
✓
57
92
+35
85▸
68
59
-9
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
62
58
-4
–
–
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Blue Jays -1.5
54
67
+13
53
67
35
-32
–
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
65
76
+11
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
✓
94
97
+3
34▸❄
60
77
+17
22
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
80
83
+3
40▸❄
83
99
+16
23❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
✓
89
93
+4
–
80
100
+20
5❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals -1.5
✓
47
57
+10
12❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
62
65
+3
15▸❄
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM LIVE
Orioles -1.5 live
✓
✓
88
92
+4
11▸
95
98
+3
17❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM LIVE
Reds -1.5 live
✓
79
76
-3
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM LIVE
Guardians -1.5 live
✓
70
82
+12
37▸
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Pirates @ Brewers
2:10 PM
Over 7.5
58
58
+0
–
57
6
-51
–
Blue Jays @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Over 7.5
✓
68
71
+3
43▸
55
90
+35
70
Tigers @ Mariners
4:10 PM
Over 8
57
65
+8
31▸❄
25
12
-13
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:05 PM
Under 9
56
50
-6
–
20
18
-2
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 9
64
61
-3
–
25
97
+72
24▸*❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 9
64
56
-8
–
25
51
+26
32❄
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9
69
70
+1
33▸❄
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
50
54
+4
–
75
53
-22
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
12:35 PM LIVE
Over 9.5 live
✓
48
57
+9
42
33
44
+11
34❄
Athletics @ Reds
12:40 PM LIVE
Under 9 live
62
57
-5
–
33
99
+66
40▸*❄
Mets @ Guardians
1:10 PM LIVE
Over 7 live
62
55
-7
–
13
31
+18
40▸*
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.