Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 6 · 11:30 AM ET 34 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

MLML+RL
Pirates ML +114
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 45% +17Circa 94% +51
6,427 bets
MLML+RL
Athletics ML +143
Athletics @ Reds
AN 21% +6Circa 87% +27
6,608 bets fading
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 94% +4Circa 100% +25
5,558 bets fading
MLML+RL
Guardians ML -125
Mets @ Guardians
AN 74% +19Circa 96% +9
9,011 bets conv 77
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Marlins @ BravesMLBraves 89% monMarlins-156→-146observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
60% (52/86)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
67% (58/86)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45% (39/86)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43% (36/84)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57% (34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (6/9)100% (9/9)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build61% (11/18)61% (11/18)
flat60% (25/42)60% (25/42)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM57% (34/60)+$276
Moneyline47% (7/15)−$1
Total · Over75% (3/4)+$182
Total · Under53% (10/19)+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)67% (14/21)+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (86 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxMLRed Sox 92%-192→-180 sustained-11White Sox ML +159
DKTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 73%-131→-124 sustained-26Tigers ML +112Spread
DKTwins @ RoyalsMLRoyals 67%-126→-119 sustained+3Twins ML +107
DKPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 65%-133→-124 sustained-35Pirates ML +114C
DKNationals @ PhilliesTOTALUnder 71%8.5→9 sustained-28Over 9 -100A
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionBlue Jays @ CubsTOTALOver 64%8→7.5 sustained+3Under 7.5 -114
ActionTigers @ MarinersSPREADMariners 64%+155→+165 sustained+18Tigers +1.5 -200Spread
ActionNationals @ PhilliesTOTALUnder 57%8.5→9 sustained-5Over 9 -100D
ActionTwins @ RoyalsTOTALUnder 68%8.5→9 sustained+1Over 9 -100
ActionPadres @ D-backsMLD-backs 58%-116→-107 sustained-15Padres ML -107
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
CircaMets @ GuardiansTOTALOver 61%8→7.5 sustained-7Under 7.5 -116
CircaPirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 72%-134→-128 sustained-17Pirates ML +114D
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 86%-192→-183 faded-6Angels ML +167ML
DKMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 86%-157→-140 faded-13Marlins ML +127AC
DKNationals @ PhilliesMLPhillies 88%-358→-332 faded+1Nationals ML +277
ActionMarlins @ BravesSPREADBraves 90%+125→+131 faded+4Marlins +1.5 -158
ActionMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 85%-156→-146 faded+4Marlins ML +127DC
CircaMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 85%-153→-145 faded+4Marlins ML +127DA
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKAngels @ OriolesTOTALUnder 62%9.5→10 sustained-41Over 9.5 -115ML
ActionAthletics @ RedsMLReds 85%-167→-161 sustained-6Athletics ML +143
ActionAthletics @ RedsSPREADReds 80%+115→+123 sustained-7Athletics +1.5 -143
ActionBlue Jays @ CubsMLCubs 60%-102→+101 faded+2Blue Jays ML -116
ActionTigers @ MarinersMLMariners 59%-132→-124 sustained-4Tigers ML +112SpreadD

Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
STRONGAngels @ OriolesOrioles ML -18797 (+7)91 (+12)Circa money +12 — sharp book agrees; Circa 91% of handle here; high volume
STRONGAthletics @ RedsAthletics ML +14321 (+6)87 (+27)Circa money +27 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 87% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUMMets @ GuardiansGuardians ML -12574 (+19)96 (+9)Circa money +9 — sharp book agrees; Circa 96% of handle here; high volume; steaming +2 money% since prev
PREMIUMPirates @ BrewersPirates ML +11445 (+17)94 (+51)Circa money +51 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 94% of handle here; high volume
STRONGTigers @ MarinersMariners -1.582 (+18) ()high volume

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMOrioles ML -1879097+7417991+1238
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMReds ML -1668579-64013-27
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMGuardians ML -1255574+19778796+917
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMBrewers ML -1307255-17576-51
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMCubs ML -1006062+25712-45
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PMMariners ML -1285955-48686+0
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMPhillies ML -3418683-33345+1251
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -1828982-78394+1120*
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -1468589+412508-42
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals ML -1225756-16779+1237
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres ML -1074257+1525

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMOrioles -1.58991+269284-8
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMReds -1.58073-7
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMGuardians -1.57180+932
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMBrewers -1.56774+7
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMBlue Jays -1.55563+827
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PMMariners -1.56482+1815
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMPhillies -1.59496+2306793+2625*
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.58387+4317597+2227*
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.59094+475100+2528*
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals -1.54964+1548
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs 1.57070+0

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMOver 9.55057+7313313-20
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMUnder 9.56258-4
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMOver 7.56154-7
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMOver 7.55554-15032-18
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMOver 7.56467+3285056+612*
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PMOver 85462+823
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMUnder 95752-55086+3625*
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMUnder 96565+0
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMUnder 96459-55096+4625*
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMUnder 96869+132
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMUnder 95151+0
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) = line moved toward this side (confirm), = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.