Strong RLM Locks → Updated Aug 6 ยท 3:45 PM ET 51 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

๐ŸŽฏ Top plays โ€” both books agree ยท money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

MLML+RL
White Sox ML +167
White Sox @ Red Sox
AN 17% +6Circa 75% +40
13,096 bets
MLML+RL
Padres ML -107
Padres @ D-backs
AN 48% +4Circa 92% +29
5,674 bets fading
SPREAD
Phillies -1.5
Nationals @ Phillies
AN 97% +2Circa 97% +17
11,415 bets
SPREAD
Braves -1.5
Marlins @ Braves
AN 92% +2Circa 100% +12
10,693 bets fading
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in โ€” the line doesnโ€™t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

โš ๏ธ Signal conflicts ยท money vs line movement disagree โ€” surfaced, not auto-resolved

MatchupMarketMoney says (splits) Line movement says (RLM)MoveReliability
Tigers @ MarinersMLMariners 57% monTigers-132โ†’-119observed live
Marlins @ BravesMLBraves 91% monMarlins-156โ†’-146observed live
Mets @ GuardiansSPREADGuardians 92% monMets-182โ†’+172observed live
Pirates @ BrewersMLBrewers 57% monPirates-132โ†’-122observed live
Padres @ D-backsMLD-backs 52% monPadres-116โ†’-108observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games โ€” the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture ยท unverified means the move only shows up openโ†’now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched โ€” likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.

๐Ÿ“ก Live & final ยท started games โ€” did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction

MatchupFirst pitchStatusScore (Aโ€“H) Closing money-fav (ML)ConvTrajectoryResult
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PMFinal4โ€“1Orioles 93%38money side lost โœ—
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PMFinal5โ€“6Reds 78%0money side won โœ“
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PMIn Progress12โ€“5Guardians 92%85money side trailing
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PMIn Progress2โ€“4Brewers 57%0money side leading
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PMIn Progress1โ€“0Cubs 58%0money side trailing

๐Ÿงฎ Feedback scorecard ยท captured signals vs actual results โ€” accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
60% (53/88)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ ยท line came our way
67% (59/88)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite โˆ’1.5
44% (39/88)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
42% (36/86)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM ยท fade the public
57% (34/60)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam67% (6/9)100% (9/9)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build58% (11/19)63% (12/19)
flat60% (26/43)58% (25/43)
RLM sharp side โ€” by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM57% (34/60)+$276
Moneyline47% (7/15)โˆ’$1
Total ยท Over75% (3/4)+$182
Total ยท Under53% (10/19)+$19
Run line โˆ’1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)โˆ’$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)67% (14/21)+$176
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below โ€” closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (88 games) โ€” do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high โ€” our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

๐Ÿ”„ Reverse line movement ยท public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick ยท fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings ยท sustained โ€” DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKTwins @ RoyalsMLRoyals 66%-126โ†’-119 sustained-12Twins ML +107
DKNationals @ PhilliesTOTALUnder 65%8.5โ†’9 sustained-29Over 9 -102A
Action Network ยท sustained โ€” consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionNationals @ PhilliesTOTALUnder 55%8.5โ†’9 sustained-8Over 9 -102D
ActionPadres @ D-backsMLD-backs 56%-116โ†’-108 sustained-4Padres ML -107
Circa ยท sustained โ€” sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
โ€” none this slate โ€”
Faded โ€” line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 88%-157โ†’-140 faded-8Marlins ML +127AC
DKNationals @ PhilliesMLPhillies 88%-358โ†’-334 faded-1Nationals ML +277
ActionMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 87%-156โ†’-146 faded+4Marlins ML +127DC
CircaMarlins @ BravesMLBraves 87%-153โ†’-145 faded+4Marlins ML +127DA
Now gone โ€” qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKWhite Sox @ Red SoxMLRed Sox 92%-192โ†’-185 faded-5White Sox ML +167
ActionMarlins @ BravesSPREADBraves 90%+125โ†’+132 faded+2Marlins +1.5 -156
ActionTwins @ RoyalsTOTALUnder 68%8.5โ†’9 sustained+2Over 8.5 -127
Live & finished โ€” closing RLM read & result
DKTigers @ Mariners LIVETOTALUnder 60%7.5โ†’8 sustained+9Over 8 -119 live
DKTigers @ Mariners LIVEMLMariners 70%-131โ†’-119 sustained-21Tigers ML +105 liveAC
DKAngels @ Orioles FINALMLOrioles 84%-192โ†’-182 faded-6Angels ML +165 โœ“C
DKPirates @ Brewers LIVEMLBrewers 62%-133โ†’-117 sustained-10Pirates ML +107 liveAC
ActionAthletics @ Reds FINALSPREADReds 79%+115โ†’+123 sustained-3Athletics +1.5 -145 โœ“
ActionAthletics @ Reds FINALMLReds 85%-167โ†’-161 sustained-7Athletics ML +145 โœ—
ActionMets @ Guardians LIVETOTALOver 62%7.5โ†’7 sustained-7Under 7 -113 liveC
ActionMets @ Guardians LIVESPREADGuardians 70%-182โ†’+172 faded+12Mets +1.5 -210 live
ActionPirates @ Brewers LIVEMLBrewers 71%-132โ†’-122 sustained-14Pirates ML +107 liveDC
ActionBlue Jays @ Cubs LIVETOTALOver 67%8โ†’7.5 sustained+3Under 7.5 -117 liveTotal
ActionBlue Jays @ Cubs LIVEMLCubs 58%-102โ†’+100 faded+0Blue Jays ML -109 liveTotal
ActionTigers @ Mariners LIVESPREADMariners 64%+155โ†’+163 sustained+12Tigers -1.5 +170 live
ActionTigers @ Mariners LIVEMLMariners 62%-132โ†’-119 sustained-5Tigers ML +105 liveDC
CircaAngels @ Orioles FINALMLOrioles 89%-192โ†’-179 faded+4Angels ML +165 โœ“D
CircaMets @ Guardians LIVETOTALOver 62%8โ†’7 sustained-7Under 7 -113 liveA
CircaPirates @ Brewers LIVEMLBrewers 71%-134โ†’-121 faded-14Pirates ML +107 liveDA
CircaTigers @ Mariners LIVEMLMariners 62%-121โ†’-114 sustained-5Tigers ML +105 liveDA

โญ Strongest signals ยท Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
STRONGWhite Sox @ Red SoxWhite Sox ML +16717 (+6)75 (+40)Circa money +40 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 75% of handle here; high volume
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUMAngels @ Orioles FINALOver 9.5 โœ—57 (+9)44 (+11)Circa money +11 โ€” sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONGAthletics @ Reds FINALAthletics ML +145 โœ—22 (+7)72 (+28)Circa money +28 โ€” sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 72% of handle here; high volume
STRONGTigers @ Mariners LIVETigers ML +105 live43 (+5)47 (+12)Circa money +12 โ€” sharp book agrees; high volume

๐Ÿ’ฐ Moneyline ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMPhillies ML -350โœ“8785-2โ€“5782+2577โ–ธ
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -191โœ“8983-6โ€“6525-40โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -146โœ“8791+413โ–ธโ„7112-59โ€“
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals ML -122โœ“6054-6โ€“7185+1450
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs ML -108โœ“5652-4โ€“388-30โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PM FINALOrioles ML -182 โœ—โœ“8993+438โ–ธ7042-28โ€“
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PM FINALReds ML -166 โœ“โœ“8578-7โ€“5628-28โ€“
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PM LIVEGuardians ML -125 liveโœ“5792+3585โ–ธ6859-9โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PM LIVEBrewers ML -122 liveโœ“7157-14โ€“5047-3โ€“
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVECubs ML -103 live5858+0โ€“6734-33โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PM LIVEMariners ML -119 liveโœ“6257-5โ€“6553-12โ€“

๐Ÿ“ Run line ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMPhillies -1.5โœ“โœ“9597+233โ–ธ8097+1736
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.5โœ“โœ“8182+135โ–ธ92100+8โ€“
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.5โœ“โœ“9092+2โ€“88100+122
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals -1.5โœ“5152+1โ€“โ€“โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMD-backs 1.5โœ“4859+1149โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PM FINALOrioles -1.5 โœ—โœ“โœ“8892+411โ–ธ9598+317โ„
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PM FINALReds -1.5 โœ—โœ“7976-3โ€“โ€“โ€“
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PM LIVEGuardians -1.5 liveโœ“7082+1237โ–ธโ€“โ€“
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PM LIVEBrewers -1.5 liveโœ“6258-4โ€“โ€“โ€“
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEBlue Jays -1.5 live5067+1744โ–ธ603-57โ€“
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PM LIVEMariners -1.5 liveโœ“6476+12โ€“โ€“โ€“

๐Ÿ“Š Totals ยท both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies6:05 PMOver 94553+825โ–ธโ„8683-3โ€“
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMUnder 8.56257-5โ€“3397+6420โ–ธ
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMUnder 96558-7โ€“2051+3136
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMUnder 8.56870+215640-16โ€“
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMOver 95157+612โ–ธโ„8056-24โ€“
Started ยท closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles12:35 PM FINALOver 9.5 โœ—โœ“4857+9423344+1134โ„
Athletics @ Reds12:40 PM FINALUnder 9 โœ—6257-5โ€“3399+6640โ–ธ*โ„
Mets @ Guardians1:10 PM LIVEOver 7 live6255-7โ€“1331+1840โ–ธ*โ„
Pirates @ Brewers2:10 PM LIVEOver 7.5 live5858+0โ€“6039-21โ€“
Blue Jays @ Cubs2:20 PM LIVEOver 7.5 liveโœ“6770+346โ–ธ6296+3470โ„โœ“
Tigers @ Mariners4:10 PM LIVEOver 8 live6269+730โ–ธโ„5033-17โ€“
diff = money% โˆ’ bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0โ€“100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm โˆ’ round-trip) sparkline = money%โˆ’bets% over all snapshots (the shape) โ–ธ = line moved toward this side (confirm), โ–ธ = line drifting away โœ“ Agree = both books' diffs same way now โœ“ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (โ‰ฅ45) RLโœ“ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability โ€” bands: 25โ€“44 building, 45โ€“64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3ร—. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots โ€” a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1โ€“2 real updates; โ„ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume โ€” its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.