🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Under 9.5
Twins @ Royals
AN 54% +19Circa 98% +48
10,864 bets conv 66
TOTAL
Under 9
Padres @ D-backs
AN 31% +12Circa 94% +44
10,688 bets
MLML+RL
Rangers ML -196
Giants @ Rangers
AN 93% +28Circa 56% +27
7,583 bets conv 81
ML
Tigers ML +105
Tigers @ Mariners
AN 75% +29Circa 62% +1
11,733 bets conv 85
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Cubs
ML
Dodgers 90% mon
Cubs
-198→-190
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 93% mon
Pirates
-167→-150
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
D-backs 85% mon
Padres
+150→+160
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
In Progress
0–0
Orioles 81%
18
tied
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
In Progress
0–1
Phillies 97%
58
money side leading
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
In Progress
0–0
Reds 87%
28
tied
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
In Progress
3–0
Guardians 75%
26
money side trailing
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
57%(32/56)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68%(38/56)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
43%(24/56)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
38%(21/55)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(21/37)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(4/6)
100%(6/6)
firm
62%(8/13)
77%(10/13)
build
58%(7/12)
75%(9/12)
flat
52%(13/25)
52%(13/25)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(21/37)
+$92
Moneyline
55%(6/11)
+$132
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(5/10)
−$41
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(9/13)
+$104
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (56 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 59%
-142→-118 sustained
-18
Tigers ML +105
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 58%
8→7.5 sustained
-48
Under 7.5 -101
A
DK
Twins @ Royals
ML
Twins 77%
-149→-140 sustained
-14
Royals ML +125
MLTotal
DK
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Under 67%
9→9.5 sustained
-33
Over 9.5 -100
MLTotal
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 60%
8.5→7 sustained
-21
Under 7.5 -117
AC
DK
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Under 67%
8.5→9 sustained
+5
Over 9 -101
Spread
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 59%
8→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -117
DC
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 73%
-128→-122 sustained
+15
Cubs +1.5 +102
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
ML
Dodgers 76%
-198→-190 sustained
+14
Cubs ML +167
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 67%
8.5→7.5 sustained
-13
Under 7.5 -101
D
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Pirates @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 59%
8.5→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -117
DA
Circa
Blue Jays @ Astros
TOTAL
Over 81%
9→8.5 sustained
+1
Under 8.5 -117
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
TOTAL
Over 79%
11.5→11 sustained
-2
Under 11 -109
ML
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 83%
-158→-141 faded
+12
Pirates ML +125
A
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 88%
-190→-169 faded
+2
Rockies ML +147
ML
DK
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 60%
-156→-136 faded
-21
Blue Jays ML +122
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 82%
-167→-150 faded
+11
Pirates ML +125
D
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 79%
+135→+144 faded
+5
Pirates +1.5 -171
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
D-backs 75%
+150→+160 faded
+14
Padres -1.5 +165
Spread
Action
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 81%
9.5→9 faded
-12
Under 9 -120
Spread
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Under 100%
7.5→9.5 sustained
+0
Over 9 -110
DK
Rays @ Rockies
TOTAL
Over 51%
11.5→11 sustained
+2
Under 11 -109
ML
C
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Over 82%
9→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 9 -110
Action
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 54%
-156→-125 sustained
-29
Tigers ML +105
D
Circa
Giants @ Rangers
TOTAL
Over 60%
8→7.5 sustained
-3
Under 8 -110
Circa
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 59%
-145→-128 sustained
-3
Blue Jays ML +122
D
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 80%
-161→-149 sustained
+14
Rockies ML +147
ML
D
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 67%
8→7.5 sustained
-13
Under 7.5 -101
DA
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 54%
-142→-120 sustained
-29
Tigers ML +105
D
Circa
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 81%
9→8.5 sustained
-12
Under 9 -120
Spread
A
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Athletics @ Reds LIVE
ML
Reds 76%
-136→-129 sustained
-38
Athletics ML +115 live
AC
DK
Angels @ Orioles LIVE
ML
Orioles 80%
-156→-142 sustained
+5
Angels ML +127 live
DK
Marlins @ Braves LIVE
ML
Braves 86%
-156→-147 faded
+10
Marlins ML +125 live
ML
DK
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
ML
Guardians 78%
-155→-128 sustained
-6
Mets ML +115 live
C
Action
Athletics @ Reds LIVE
ML
Reds 73%
-141→-135 sustained
+14
Athletics ML +115 live
DC
Action
Nationals @ Phillies LIVE
TOTAL
Over 66%
9→8.5 sustained
+8
Under 9 -120 live
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees LIVE
TOTAL
Over 83%
8.5→8 sustained
+4
Under 8 -110 live
Action
White Sox @ Red Sox LIVE
TOTAL
Over 77%
9.5→9 sustained
-2
Under 9 -116 live
Action
White Sox @ Red Sox LIVE
SPREAD
Red Sox 72%
+150→+156 faded
+6
White Sox +1.5 -165 live
Action
Marlins @ Braves LIVE
TOTAL
Over 60%
9.5→9 sustained
+6
Under 9 -103 live
ML
Circa
Athletics @ Reds LIVE
ML
Reds 73%
-136→-129 faded
+14
Athletics ML +115 live
DA
Circa
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
ML
Guardians 74%
-145→-130 sustained
+1
Mets ML +115 live
D
Circa
Cardinals @ Yankees LIVE
ML
Yankees 72%
-235→-202 faded
+8
Cardinals ML +175 live
Circa
Marlins @ Braves LIVE
ML
Braves 78%
-149→-140 sustained
+17
Marlins ML +125 live
ML
D
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
PREMIUM
Twins @ Royals
Under 9.5
54 (+19)
98 (+48)
Circa money +48 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; money 54% vs public tickets 35%; high volume
PREMIUM
Giants @ Rangers
Rangers ML -196
93 (+28)
56 (+27)
Circa money +27 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONG
Giants @ Rangers
Rangers -1.5
83 (+19)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Rays @ Rockies
Rays -1.5
91 (+10)
90 (+15)
Circa money +15 — sharp book agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Mariners -1.5
55 (+16)
()
money 55% vs public tickets 39%; high volume
STRONG
Tigers @ Mariners
Tigers ML +105
75 (+29)
62 (+1)
high volume
PREMIUM
Padres @ D-backs
Under 9
31 (+12)
94 (+44)
Circa money +44 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 94% of handle here; high volume
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
PREMIUM
Angels @ Orioles LIVE
Over 9.5 live
60 (+8)
96 (+33)
Circa money +33 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 96% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
Under 7.5 live
48 (+9)
61 (+28)
Circa money +28 — sharp book strongly agrees; high volume
STRONG
White Sox @ Red Sox LIVE
Red Sox -1.5 live
78 (+6)
86 (+26)
Circa money +26 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 86% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Twins ML -151
68
84
+16
56▸❄
75
60
-15
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -150
✓
82
93
+11
23▸❄
85
35
-50
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers ML -190
✓
76
90
+14
26▸❄
36
32
-4
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers ML -196
✓
✓
65
93
+28
81▸❄
29
56
+27
35▸
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros ML -143
✓
59
56
-3
–
62
91
+29
70
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays ML -173
✓
80
94
+14
49▸
64
46
-18
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Tigers ML +105
✓
46
75
+29
85▸
61
62
+1
35▸
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -120
✓
69
85
+16
47
79
66
-13
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM LIVE
Orioles ML -150 live
✓
77
81
+4
18▸
68
65
-3
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM LIVE
Reds ML -135 live
✓
73
87
+14
28▸
68
36
-32
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM LIVE
Guardians ML -135 live
✓
74
75
+1
26
85
54
-31
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM LIVE
Phillies ML -316 live
✓
✓
91
97
+6
58▸
47
54
+7
20▸
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM LIVE
Yankees ML -210 live
✓
72
80
+8
35▸❄
60
7
-53
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM LIVE
Red Sox ML -151 live
✓
79
66
-13
–
77
86
+9
63▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM LIVE
Braves ML -151 live
✓
78
95
+17
68▸❄
85
83
-2
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
51
60
+9
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
79
84
+5
22▸❄
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers -1.5
✓
73
88
+15
24▸❄
67
21
-46
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
64
83
+19
68▸❄
–
–
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
55
58
+3
40▸❄
–
24*❄
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
✓
81
91
+10
48▸
75
90
+15
28❄
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
39
55
+16
–
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
✓
75
89
+14
56▸
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM LIVE
Orioles -1.5 live
✓
89
93
+4
11▸
80
1
-79
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM LIVE
Reds -1.5 live
✓
74
67
-7
–
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM LIVE
Guardians -1.5 live
✓
81
89
+8
4
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM LIVE
Phillies -1.5 live
✓
91
93
+2
26▸
77
69
-8
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM LIVE
Yankees -1.5 live
✓
65
74
+9
59▸❄
83
16
-67
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM LIVE
Red Sox -1.5 live
✓
✓
72
78
+6
38▸❄
60
86
+26
46
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM LIVE
Braves -1.5 live
✓
88
94
+6
41▸❄
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Under 9.5
✓
35
54
+19
66▸❄
50
98
+48
44❄
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Over 7.5
59
59
+0
–
33
11
-22
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Over 9
82
81
-1
–
50
51
+1
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Over 8
60
57
-3
–
80
99
+19
54
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Over 8.5
81
82
+1
3❄
25
4
-21
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Over 11
79
77
-2
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 7.5
67
54
-13
–
43
49
+6
11
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
81
69
-12
–
50
6
-44
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM LIVE
Over 9.5 live
✓
52
60
+8
11▸
63
96
+33
34▸
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM LIVE
Over 9 live
✓
83
86
+3
–
86
96
+10
18*
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM LIVE
Over 7.5 live
61
52
-9
–
67
39
-28
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM LIVE
Over 9 live
✓
66
74
+8
38
80
82
+2
22
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM LIVE
Over 8 live
83
87
+4
19▸❄
80
61
-19
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM LIVE
Over 9 live
77
75
-2
–
67
80
+13
3
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM LIVE
Over 9 live
60
66
+6
29▸❄
50
23
-27
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.