🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
No plays where both books agree right now.
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 94% mon
Cubs
-192→+158
observed live
Twins @ Royals
SPREAD
Royals 66% mon
Twins
-184→+167
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 82% mon
Pirates
-210→+165
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 76% mon
D-backs
-222→+118
observed live
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 69% mon
Giants
-172→-158
observed live
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 79% mon
Blue Jays
-182→-115
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Final
5–4
Astros 79%
0
money side lost ✗
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Final
6–7
Dodgers 94%
77
money side lost ✗
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Final
0–6
Rangers 69%
0
money side won ✓
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Final
4–0
Rays 88%
11
money side won ✓
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Final
2–5
Orioles 78%
0
money side won ✓
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Final
2–3
Reds 80%
0
money side won ✓
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
In Progress
4–5
Mets 74%
36
money side trailing
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
In Progress
3–3
Phillies 94%
5
tied
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
In Progress
0–0
Yankees 77%
0
tied
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
In Progress
0–3
Red Sox 81%
0
money side leading
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
In Progress
1–4
Braves 88%
0
money side leading
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
In Progress
1–1
Royals 66%
0
tied
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
In Progress
0–3
Brewers 82%
38
money side leading
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
60%(46/77)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68%(52/77)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(35/77)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
43%(32/75)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(32/56)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(6/9)
100%(9/9)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
60%(21/35)
57%(20/35)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(32/56)
+$307
Moneyline
47%(7/15)
−$1
Total · Over
75%(3/4)
+$182
Total · Under
53%(9/17)
+$19
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
68%(13/19)
+$207
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (77 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
— none this slate —
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 87%
9.5→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -105
C
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Padres @ D-backs
ML
Padres 77%
-116→-101 sustained
-1
Diamondbacks ML +119
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 73%
-222→+118 faded
+10
Diamondbacks +1.5 -144
Circa
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 87%
9.5→9 faded
-1
Under 8.5 -105
A
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
ML
Reds 75%
-137→-129 sustained
-19
Athletics ML +146 ✗
Total
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox LIVE
ML
Red Sox 95%
-126→-119 sustained
+3
White Sox ML +126 live
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox LIVE
TOTAL
Under 100%
8.5→9 sustained
+0
Over 8 -116 live
DK
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
ML
Mariners 88%
-155→-126 sustained
+9
Tigers ML +130 live
DK
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
TOTAL
Over 100%
8→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -110 live
C
DK
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
TOTAL
Under 57%
8→8.5 sustained
-44
Over 8 -105 ✗
DK
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 78%
-142→-134 faded
+4
Angels ML +120 ✗
DK
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Under 66%
9.5→10 sustained
-64
Over 10 -105 ✓
Spread
AC
DK
Marlins @ Braves LIVE
ML
Braves 100%
-131→-123 faded
+0
Marlins ML +112 live
DK
Twins @ Royals LIVE
TOTAL
Over 0%
9→8.5 sustained
+0
Under 8.5 -100 live
Spread
AC
DK
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
TOTAL
Over 0%
8.5→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -109 live
DK
Pirates @ Brewers LIVE
ML
Brewers 85%
-137→-127 faded
+2
Pirates ML +115 live
DK
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 80%
-170→-147 sustained
+3
Giants ML +136 ✗
AC
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees LIVE
ML
Yankees 82%
-156→-146 sustained
-22
Cardinals ML +136 live
DK
Rays @ Rockies FINAL
ML
Rays 85%
-167→-153 sustained
+6
Rockies ML +141 ✗
DK
Nationals @ Phillies LIVE
ML
Phillies 85%
-174→-168 faded
-17
Nationals ML +172 live
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
TOTAL
Under 62%
7.5→8 sustained
-13
Over 8 -112 ✓
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
SPREAD
Astros 86%
-182→-115 faded
+3
Blue Jays +1.5 -105 ✓
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
SPREAD
Dodgers 71%
-192→+158 sustained
+20
Cubs +1.5 -187 ✓
Spread
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5→10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 ✓
Spread
DC
Action
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
SPREAD
Rangers 74%
+120→+126 sustained
+10
Giants +1.5 -153 ✗
Action
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 70%
-172→-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136 ✗
DC
Action
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 88%
-135→-122 sustained
-10
Angels ML +120 ✗
D
Action
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
SPREAD
Orioles 81%
+145→+152 faded
+4
Angels +1.5 -175 ✗
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
TOTAL
Over 64%
10→9.5 sustained
+8
Under 9.5 -115 ✓
Total
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
SPREAD
Reds 82%
+135→+142 sustained
+3
Athletics +1.5 -146 ✓
Total
Action
Athletics @ Reds FINAL
ML
Reds 85%
-155→-149 faded
-5
Athletics ML +146 ✗
Total
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees LIVE
ML
Yankees 85%
-156→-150 sustained
-8
Cardinals ML +136 live
Action
Twins @ Royals LIVE
TOTAL
Over 81%
9→8.5 sustained
-2
Under 8.5 -100 live
Spread
C
Action
Twins @ Royals LIVE
SPREAD
Royals 69%
-184→+167 faded
+10
Twins -1.5 +165 live
Spread
Action
Pirates @ Brewers LIVE
SPREAD
Brewers 78%
-210→+165 sustained
+11
Pirates +1.5 -200 live
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
ML
Dodgers 55%
+106→+112 sustained
+39
Cubs ML -115 ✓
Spread
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Under 60%
9.5→10 sustained
-10
Over 10 -105 ✓
Spread
DA
Circa
Giants @ Rangers FINAL
ML
Rangers 70%
-171→-158 sustained
-1
Giants ML +136 ✗
DA
Circa
Angels @ Orioles FINAL
ML
Orioles 88%
-136→-120 sustained
-10
Angels ML +120 ✗
D
Circa
Marlins @ Braves LIVE
TOTAL
Over 77%
9→8 sustained
+1
Under 8.5 -116 live
Circa
Twins @ Royals LIVE
TOTAL
Over 81%
9→8.5 sustained
-2
Under 8.5 -100 live
Spread
A
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners LIVE
TOTAL
Over 74%
8→7.5 sustained
+7
Under 7.5 -110 live
D
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
STRONG
Blue Jays @ Astros FINAL
Over 8 ✓
51 (+13)
38 (-29)
money 51% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs FINAL
Dodgers -1.5 ✗
91 (+20)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
Guardians 1.5 live
67 (+15)
80 (+30)
Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians LIVE
Mets ML -102 live
74 (+23)
7 (-10)
high volume
STRONG
Cardinals @ Yankees LIVE
Yankees -1.5 live
81 (+7)
100 (+11)
Circa money +11 — sharp book agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -132
✓
77
76
-1
–
–
19▸
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM FINAL
Astros ML -223 ✗
✓
84
79
-5
–
93
100
+7
42▸❄
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Dodgers ML -100 ✗
✓
55
94
+39
77▸❄
70
53
-17
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM FINAL
Rangers ML -158 ✓
✓
70
69
-1
–
43
8
-35
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM FINAL
Rays ML -159 ✓
✓
86
88
+2
11▸❄
58
43
-15
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM FINAL
Orioles ML -140 ✓
✓
88
78
-10
–
69
84
+15
71▸❄
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM FINAL
Reds ML -166 ✓
✓
85
80
-5
–
50
85
+35
56▸❄
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM LIVE
Mets ML -102 live
51
74
+23
36▸❄
17
7
-10
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM LIVE
Phillies ML -194 live
✓
✓
93
94
+1
5▸
38
69
+31
85▸❄
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM LIVE
Yankees ML -151 live
✓
85
77
-8
–
62
60
-2
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM LIVE
Red Sox ML -140 live
✓
89
81
-8
–
78
93
+15
63▸❄
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM LIVE
Braves ML -128 live
✓
✓
87
88
+1
–
81
85
+4
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM LIVE
Royals ML -117 live
✓
✓
63
66
+3
–
61
64
+3
8❄
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM LIVE
Brewers ML -131 live
✓
80
82
+2
38▸❄
65
41
-24
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM LIVE
Mariners ML -150 live
✓
54
59
+5
–
–
–
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
73
83
+10
–
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM FINAL
Astros -1.5 ✗
✓
86
89
+3
–
85
85
+0
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Dodgers -1.5 ✗
✓
71
91
+20
24▸❄
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM FINAL
Rangers -1.5 ✓
✓
74
84
+10
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM FINAL
Rays -1.5 ✓
✓
77
61
-16
–
75
95
+20
32*❄
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM FINAL
Orioles -1.5 ✓
✓
81
85
+4
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM FINAL
Reds -1.5 ✗
✓
82
85
+3
4▸❄
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM LIVE
Guardians 1.5 live
✓
52
67
+15
71▸❄
50
80
+30
25*❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM LIVE
Phillies -1.5 live
✓
85
87
+2
–
75
59
-16
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM LIVE
Yankees -1.5 live
✓
✓
74
81
+7
4❄
89
100
+11
19❄
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM LIVE
Red Sox -1.5 live
✓
88
93
+5
54▸❄
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM LIVE
Braves -1.5 live
✓
83
91
+8
7▸❄
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM LIVE
Royals 1.5 live
✓
69
79
+10
64▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM LIVE
Brewers -1.5 live
✓
78
89
+11
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM LIVE
Mariners -1.5 live
✓
53
59
+6
–
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 8.5
87
86
-1
–
–
41▸
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM FINAL
Over 8 ✓
38
51
+13
38▸❄
67
38
-29
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Under 10 ✗
60
50
-10
–
18
12
-6
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM FINAL
Under 8.5 ✓
62
57
-5
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM FINAL
Under 11 ✓
✓
49
53
+4
–
25
64
+39
42▸❄
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM FINAL
Over 8 ✗
49
54
+5
47▸
50
22
-28
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM FINAL
Over 9.5 ✗
64
72
+8
50▸
75
3
-72
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM LIVE
Under 7.5 live
51
51
+0
–
50
55
+5
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM LIVE
Over 9.5 live
64
80
+16
41
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM LIVE
Under 8.5 live
57
50
-7
–
78
100
+22
25▸❄
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM LIVE
Under 8 live
52
60
+8
17▸❄
38
28
-10
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM LIVE
Over 8.5 live
77
78
+1
23❄
88
53
-35
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM LIVE
Over 8.5 live
81
79
-2
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM LIVE
Under 7 live
59
54
-5
–
44
63
+19
62❄
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM LIVE
Over 7.5 live
74
81
+7
29❄
–
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.