🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Under 8.5
Padres @ D-backs
AN 51% +2Circa 100% +50
4,175 bets
TOTAL
Under 11.5
Rays @ Rockies
AN 53% +3Circa 70% +45
6,235 bets fading
SPREAD
Guardians 1.5
Mets @ Guardians
AN 62% +11Circa 80% +30
3,943 bets conv 53
MLML+RL
Cardinals ML +140
Cardinals @ Yankees
AN 35% +16Circa 72% +22
3,337 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 59% mon
Athletics
-155→-149
observed live
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 82% mon
Pirates
-210→+165
observed live
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 65% mon
D-backs
-222→+127
observed live
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 71% mon
Giants
-172→-163
observed live
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 87% mon
Blue Jays
-182→-110
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
59%(42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66%(47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45%(32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41%(28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55%(27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
75%(6/8)
100%(8/8)
firm
59%(10/17)
76%(13/17)
build
56%(9/16)
62%(10/16)
flat
57%(17/30)
53%(16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
55%(27/49)
+$87
Moneyline
50%(7/14)
+$99
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(8/16)
−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(11/16)
+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 80%
-142→-118 sustained
+9
Angels ML +105
AC
DK
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Under 80%
9.5→10 sustained
-73
Over 10 -103
ML
AC
DK
Marlins @ Braves
ML
Braves 79%
-131→-117 sustained
-15
Marlins ML +107
DK
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 80%
-170→-147 sustained
+5
Giants ML +136
AC
DK
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 84%
-167→-152 sustained
+6
Rockies ML +137
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
TOTAL
Under 61%
7.5→8 sustained
-13
Over 8 -115
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Under 59%
9.5→10 sustained
-6
Over 10 -103
ML
DC
Action
Giants @ Rangers
SPREAD
Rangers 73%
+120→+126 sustained
+17
Giants +1.5 -153
Action
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 69%
-172→-163 sustained
+2
Giants ML +136
DC
Action
Angels @ Orioles
SPREAD
Orioles 81%
+145→+165 sustained
+2
Angels +1.5 -200
Action
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 87%
-135→-122 sustained
-39
Angels ML +105
DC
Action
Twins @ Royals
SPREAD
Royals 72%
-184→+167 sustained
+8
Twins -1.5 +168
Spread
Action
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Over 62%
9→8.5 sustained
-4
Under 8.5 -101
Spread
C
Action
Pirates @ Brewers
SPREAD
Brewers 82%
-210→+165 sustained
+7
Pirates +1.5 -200
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs
ML
Dodgers 55%
+106→+112 sustained
+20
Cubs ML -121
ML
Circa
Dodgers @ Cubs
TOTAL
Under 59%
9.5→10 sustained
-6
Over 10 -103
ML
DA
Circa
Giants @ Rangers
ML
Rangers 69%
-171→-158 sustained
+2
Giants ML +136
DA
Circa
Angels @ Orioles
ML
Orioles 87%
-136→-120 sustained
-39
Angels ML +105
DA
Circa
Twins @ Royals
TOTAL
Over 62%
9→8.5 sustained
-4
Under 8.5 -101
Spread
A
Circa
Tigers @ Mariners
TOTAL
Over 57%
8→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -110
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Pirates @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 69%
-137→-127 faded
-4
Pirates ML +112
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
SPREAD
Astros 87%
-182→-110 faded
+2
Blue Jays +1.5 -110
Action
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 85%
-155→-149 faded
-26
Athletics ML +130
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 70%
-222→+127 faded
+14
Diamondbacks +1.5 -155
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Athletics @ Reds
ML
Reds 73%
-137→-129 sustained
-42
Athletics ML +130
A
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 50%
8.5→8 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -110
DK
White Sox @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 91%
-126→-119 sustained
-4
White Sox ML +116
DK
Tigers @ Mariners
ML
Mariners 71%
-155→-140 sustained
-3
Tigers ML +137
DK
Angels @ Orioles
TOTAL
Under 65%
8→8.5 sustained
-62
Over 8 -105
DK
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 83%
-156→-146 sustained
-48
Cardinals ML +140
DK
Nationals @ Phillies
ML
Phillies 86%
-174→-168 faded
-64
Nationals ML +167
Action
Dodgers @ Cubs
SPREAD
Dodgers 73%
-192→-180 faded
+17
Cubs -1.5 +155
ML
Action
Athletics @ Reds
SPREAD
Reds 71%
+135→+142 sustained
+17
Athletics +1.5 -155
Action
Athletics @ Reds
TOTAL
Over 50%
10→9.5 sustained
+6
Under 9.5 -105
Action
Cardinals @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 81%
-156→-150 sustained
-16
Cardinals ML +140
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Blue Jays @ Astros
Over 8
52 (+13)
36 (-24)
money 52% vs public tickets 39%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Over 10
47 (+6)
99 (+16)
Circa money +16 — sharp book agrees; Circa 99% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers ML +105
75 (+20)
41 (-25)
high volume
STRONG
Angels @ Orioles
Angels ML +105
52 (+39)
13 (-9)
money 52% vs public tickets 13%; high volume
STRONG
Athletics @ Reds
Athletics ML +130
41 (+26)
22 (-21)
high volume
PREMIUM
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians 1.5
62 (+11)
80 (+30)
Circa money +30 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Mets @ Guardians
Guardians ML -110
56 (+6)
87 (+20)
Circa money +20 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 87% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Cardinals @ Yankees
Cardinals ML +140
35 (+16)
72 (+22)
Circa money +22 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 72% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
White Sox @ Red Sox
Under 8.5
64 (+6)
64 (+14)
Circa money +14 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Twins @ Royals
Twins ML +105
57 (+12)
40 (+7)
Circa leans same way (+7); money 57% vs public tickets 45%; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros ML -225
✓
✓
82
87
+5
42▸
95
100
+5
28▸*
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers ML +105
✓
55
75
+20
38
66
41
-25
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers ML -163
✓
69
71
+2
2▸
25
1
-24
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays ML -159
✓
85
86
+1
9▸
43
17
-26
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Angels ML +105
13
52
+39
85▸
22
13
-9
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds ML -151
✓
85
59
-26
–
57
78
+21
55▸
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians ML -110
✓
✓
50
56
+6
8▸
67
87
+20
74▸
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -188
✓
89
94
+5
53▸❄
20
7
-13
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -160
✓
81
65
-16
–
50
28
-22
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -133
✓
87
84
-3
–
89
94
+5
35▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves ML -125
✓
87
87
+0
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Twins ML +105
✓
45
57
+12
13▸
33
40
+7
33❄
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -132
✓
79
82
+3
23▸
68
17
-51
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Tigers ML +137
57
54
-3
–
25
2
-23
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres ML -122
✓
72
65
-7
–
63
99
+36
77▸
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
87
89
+2
–
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Dodgers 1.5
✓
73
90
+17
36
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
73
90
+17
14▸❄
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
76
77
+1
1▸
–
–
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Orioles -1.5
81
83
+2
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Reds -1.5
✓
71
88
+17
44▸❄
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Guardians 1.5
✓
✓
51
62
+11
53▸
50
80
+30
25*❄
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
83
88
+5
40▸❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
74
82
+8
–
–
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
89
92
+3
36▸
–
–
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Braves -1.5
✓
85
90
+5
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Royals 1.5
72
80
+8
49▸
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
82
89
+7
–
–
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
51
61
+10
6
–
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
70
84
+14
–
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros
2:10 PM
Over 8
39
52
+13
38▸
60
36
-24
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Under 10
59
53
-6
–
17
1
-16
–
Giants @ Rangers
2:35 PM
Under 8.5
61
56
-5
–
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
3:10 PM
Under 11.5
✓
50
53
+3
5
25
70
+45
40*
Angels @ Orioles
6:35 PM
Under 8
66
64
-2
–
–
–
Athletics @ Reds
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
50
56
+6
10▸❄
–
–
Mets @ Guardians
6:40 PM
Under 8
66
69
+3
–
–
–
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9.5
58
68
+10
36❄
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Over 8.5
42
51
+9
38
33
2
-31
–
White Sox @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Under 8.5
✓
58
64
+6
23
50
64
+14
21▸
Marlins @ Braves
7:15 PM
Under 8.5
58
54
-4
–
–
–
Twins @ Royals
7:40 PM
Over 8.5
62
58
-4
–
–
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Under 7
71
66
-5
–
80
73
-7
–
Tigers @ Mariners
9:40 PM
Over 7.5
57
60
+3
13
50
15
-35
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Under 8.5
✓
49
51
+2
–
50
100
+50
24▸*
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.