Updated 6:15 AM ET 13 snapshots Action Circa every 15m

🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa

MLML+RL
Phillies ML -173
Nationals @ Phillies
AN 98% +5Circa 90% +40
1,277 bets conv 45
MLML+RL
Dodgers ML -102
Dodgers @ Cubs
AN 83% +30Circa 74% +7
2,246 bets conv 68
TOTAL
Over 7
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 46% +1Circa 27% +2
1,645 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.

⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved

No money-vs-line-movement conflicts right now.

🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself

ML money-fav wins
59% (42/71)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
66% (47/71)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
45% (32/71)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
41% (28/69)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
55% (27/49)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction bandML win rateCLV+ rate
steam75% (6/8)100% (8/8)
firm59% (10/17)76% (13/17)
build56% (9/16)62% (10/16)
flat57% (17/30)53% (16/30)
RLM sharp side — by bet typeWin rate$100 bettor
All RLM55% (27/49)+$87
Moneyline50% (7/14)+$99
Total · Over50% (1/2)−$3
Total · Under50% (8/16)−$68
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)0% (0/1)−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)69% (11/16)+$158
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (71 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.

🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way

Line source:
BookMatchupMarketPublic side (tickets) Line move vs publicMoney gapPick · fade the public Conflicts Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DKAngels @ OriolesTOTALUnder 63%8→8.5 sustained-56Over 8.5 -100
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
ActionBlue Jays @ AstrosSPREADAstros 83%-182→+116 sustained+11Blue Jays +1.5 -141
ActionAthletics @ RedsMLReds 87%-155→-136 sustained-27Athletics ML +115
ActionPirates @ BrewersSPREADBrewers 77%-210→+156 sustained+19Pirates +1.5 -191
ActionPadres @ D-backsSPREADPadres 66%-222→+135 sustained+24Diamondbacks +1.5 -160
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
— none this slate —
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DKRays @ RockiesMLRays 85%-167→-158 faded+14Rockies ML +141
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DKAngels @ OriolesMLOrioles 84%-142→-135 sustained+8Angels ML +115
ActionDodgers @ CubsSPREADDodgers 67%-192→-185 sustained+26Cubs -1.5 +162

Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked

TierMatchupPickAN mon% (div)Circa mon% (div)Why
STRONGNationals @ PhilliesPhillies ML -17398 (+5)90 (+40)Circa money +40 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 90% of handle here; thin volume — discount

💰 Moneyline · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PMAstros ML -1768385+234
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PMDodgers ML -1025383+30686774+726
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMRangers ML -1816875+738
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMRays ML -1618793+632
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMAngels ML +1151253+4158
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds ML -1368760-27
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMGuardians ML -1055066+16235027-23
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies ML -1739398+5455090+4025*
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees ML -1538669-17
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox ML -1258887-1
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves ML -1308888+0
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals ML -1205367+1443
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers ML -1388077-3
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners ML -1504164+2338
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres ML -1247364-9

📐 Run line · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickML+RLAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PMAstros -1.58394+1112
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PMDodgers 1.56793+2640
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMRangers -1.56186+2542
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMRays -1.57691+1536
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMOrioles -1.57665-11
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMReds -1.56697+3152
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMMets -1.54762+1548
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMPhillies -1.58694+844
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMYankees -1.57784+7
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMRed Sox -1.59283-9
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMBraves -1.58198+1750
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMRoyals 1.58176-5
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMBrewers -1.57796+1913
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMMariners -1.55372+1940
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMPadres -1.56690+2420

📊 Totals · both books side by side

MatchupFirst pitchMoney-favored pickAgree AN bet%AN mon%AN diffAN move Circa bet%Circa mon%Circa diffCirca move Move agree
Blue Jays @ Astros2:10 PMOver 84751+485036-14
Dodgers @ Cubs2:20 PMUnder 9.55453-1
Giants @ Rangers2:35 PMOver 8.55153+27
Rays @ Rockies3:10 PMUnder 11.55259+730
Angels @ Orioles6:35 PMUnder 8.56463-1
Athletics @ Reds6:40 PMOver 9.54656+1057
Mets @ Guardians6:40 PMUnder 8.56167+626
Nationals @ Phillies6:40 PMOver 9.54959+1033
Cardinals @ Yankees7:05 PMUnder 8.55758+111
White Sox @ Red Sox7:10 PMUnder 8.54953+4
Marlins @ Braves7:15 PMUnder 8.55756-1
Twins @ Royals7:40 PMUnder 96457-7
Pirates @ Brewers7:40 PMUnder 75554-17573-2
Tigers @ Mariners9:40 PMOver 85056+615
Padres @ D-backs9:40 PMUnder 9.55858+0
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell) move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip) sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape) = line moved toward this side (confirm), = line drifting away ✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now ✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45) RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.