🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Under 7.5
Guardians @ Twins
AN 17% +8Circa 80% +37
6,270 bets
SPREAD
Mariners -1.5
Mariners @ Athletics
AN 80% +8Circa 98% +31
6,866 bets fading
TOTAL
Under 7.5
Padres @ Giants
AN 9% +5Circa 84% +34
5,755 bets
TOTAL
Over 10.5
Mariners @ Athletics
AN 69% +5Circa 74% +19
6,866 bets
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Dodgers @ Marlins
ML
Dodgers 93% mon
Marlins
-245→-203
observed live
Rangers @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 73% mon
Rangers
-125→-117
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
📡 Live & final · started games — did the money-favored side hold up? scores are live; this track never touches the pregame conviction
Matchup
First pitch
Status
Score (A–H)
Closing money-fav (ML)
Conv
Trajectory
Result
Pirates @ Cubs
2:20 PM
Final
2–12
Cubs 87%
0
money side won ✓
Rockies @ Tigers
6:40 PM
In Progress
0–0
Tigers 91%
0
tied
Angels @ Nationals
6:45 PM
In Progress
1–0
Nationals 71%
0
money side trailing
Phillies @ Braves
7:15 PM
Delayed Start DELAYED
0–0
Braves 84%
14
tied
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
55%(311/563)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
55%(309/563)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
40%(226/563)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
51%(277/540)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
49%(222/451)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
57%(29/51)
88%(45/51)
firm
53%(50/94)
64%(60/94)
build
50%(58/116)
55%(64/116)
flat
58%(174/302)
46%(140/302)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
49%(222/451)
−$3,010
Moneyline
42%(59/142)
−$1,548
Total · Over
64%(7/11)
+$267
Total · Under
50%(84/167)
−$632
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
31%(4/13)
−$311
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
58%(68/118)
−$785
11 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA, WSH@PHI, STL@NYY, PIT@MIL, LAD@CHC, SF@TEX, TOR@HOU, TB@COL, SD@ARI.
Sample is tiny (563 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Line source:
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Pick · fade the public
Conflicts
Agree
DraftKings · sustained — DK line moved against the public and stayed there (matched high-volume book)
DK
Orioles @ Blue Jays
TOTAL
Over 71%
8.5→8 sustained
-17
Under 7.5 -104
AC
DK
Astros @ Rays
ML
Rays 78%
-175→-149 sustained
+22
Astros ML +165
ML
DK
Mariners @ Athletics
TOTAL
Over 67%
10→9.5 sustained
+32
Under 10.5 -115
Total
DK
Rangers @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 100%
9→8.5 sustained
+0
Under 8.5 -100
AC
DK
Rangers @ D-backs
ML
Rangers 57%
+109→+119 sustained
-11
Diamondbacks ML -117
Action Network · sustained — consensus line moved against the public and stayed there
Action
Mets @ Yankees
SPREAD
Yankees 72%
+145→+155 sustained
+7
Mets +1.5 -187
Action
Mets @ Yankees
TOTAL
Over 84%
8.5→8 sustained
-4
Under 8 -107
Action
Mets @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 79%
-141→-135 sustained
-28
Mets ML +110
C
Action
Orioles @ Blue Jays
TOTAL
Over 89%
8.5→7.5 sustained
-6
Under 7.5 -104
DC
Action
White Sox @ Cardinals
TOTAL
Over 91%
8.5→7.5 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -102
C
Action
Rangers @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 70%
-125→-117 sustained
+3
Rangers ML -103
C
Action
Rangers @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 96%
9.5→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -100
DC
Action
Padres @ Giants
TOTAL
Over 96%
8→7.5 sustained
-5
Under 7.5 -105
Circa · sustained — sharp-book line moved against the public and stayed there
Circa
Orioles @ Blue Jays
TOTAL
Over 89%
8.5→8 sustained
-6
Under 7.5 -104
DA
Circa
Royals @ Red Sox
TOTAL
Over 87%
8.5→8 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -117
Circa
Dodgers @ Marlins
ML
Dodgers 93%
-210→-187 sustained
+0
Marlins ML +168
A
Circa
Guardians @ Twins
ML
Guardians 67%
-120→-114 sustained
+8
Twins ML -101
ML
Circa
White Sox @ Cardinals
TOTAL
Over 91%
8.5→8 sustained
+3
Under 7.5 -102
A
Circa
Rangers @ D-backs
ML
D-backs 70%
-130→-110 sustained
+3
Rangers ML -103
A
Circa
Rangers @ D-backs
TOTAL
Over 96%
9→8.5 sustained
-1
Under 8.5 -100
DA
Faded — line moved against the public, then retraced (round-trip; weaker than sustained)
DK
Royals @ Red Sox
ML
Red Sox 97%
-206→-192 faded
+3
Royals ML +168
Action
Dodgers @ Marlins
ML
Dodgers 93%
-245→-203 faded
+0
Marlins ML +168
C
Circa
Mets @ Yankees
ML
Yankees 79%
-135→-127 faded
-28
Mets ML +110
A
Now gone — qualified earlier, then the tickets came off or the line retraced
DK
Reds @ Brewers
ML
Brewers 86%
-191→-185 sustained
-13
Reds ML +168
DK
White Sox @ Cardinals
TOTAL
Over 50%
8.5→7.5 sustained
-43
Under 7.5 -102
AC
DK
Phillies @ Braves
TOTAL
Over 100%
7.5→7 sustained
+0
Under 7.5
Circa
Reds @ Brewers
TOTAL
Over 91%
8→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 8 -105
Circa
White Sox @ Cardinals
ML
White Sox 54%
-109→-102 sustained
+0
Cardinals ML -112
Live & finished — closing RLM read & result
DK
Angels @ Nationals LIVE
TOTAL
Over 100%
8→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -105 live
AC
DK
Pirates @ Cubs FINAL
TOTAL
Over 76%
8.5→8 sustained
-19
Under 8.5 -113 ✗
Action
Rockies @ Tigers LIVE
TOTAL
Over 91%
8.5→8 sustained
+0
Under 8 -111 live
Action
Angels @ Nationals LIVE
TOTAL
Over 83%
8.5→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -105 live
C
Circa
Pirates @ Cubs FINAL
ML
Cubs 85%
-200→-183 faded
+2
Pirates ML +155 ✗
Circa
Angels @ Nationals LIVE
TOTAL
Over 83%
8→7.5 sustained
+0
Under 7.5 -105 live
A
×
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Mets @ Yankees
Mets ML +110
49 (+28)
28 (-8)
high volume
STRONG
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Under 7.5
17 (+6)
43 (+13)
Circa money +13 — sharp book agrees; high volume
PREMIUM
Astros @ Rays
Rays ML -200
93 (+10)
63 (+9)
Circa money +9 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Royals @ Red Sox
Red Sox -1.5
95 (+6)
100 (+8)
Circa money +8 — sharp book agrees; Circa 100% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Guardians @ Twins
Under 7.5
17 (+8)
80 (+37)
Circa money +37 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 80% of handle here; high volume
PREMIUM
Guardians @ Twins
Guardians ML -119
75 (+8)
91 (+10)
Circa money +10 — sharp book agrees; Circa 91% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Guardians @ Twins
Guardians -1.5
79 (+20)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Mariners @ Athletics
Mariners -1.5
80 (+8)
98 (+31)
Circa money +31 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 98% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Mariners @ Athletics
Over 10.5
69 (+5)
74 (+19)
Circa money +19 — sharp book agrees; Circa 74% of handle here; high volume
STRONG
Rangers @ D-backs
D-backs 1.5
75 (+27)
()
high volume
STRONG
Padres @ Giants
Under 7.5
9 (+5)
84 (+34)
Circa money +34 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 84% of handle here; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Mets @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -135
✓
79
51
-28
–
64
72
+8
–
Orioles @ Blue Jays
7:07 PM
Blue Jays ML -135
✓
70
75
+5
57▸
58
56
-2
–
Astros @ Rays
7:10 PM
Rays ML -200
✓
✓
83
93
+10
51▸
54
63
+9
43▸
Royals @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox ML -203
✓
✓
93
97
+4
39▸
74
92
+18
53▸
Dodgers @ Marlins
7:10 PM
Dodgers ML -203
✓
93
93
+0
–
61
49
-12
–
Reds @ Brewers
7:45 PM
Brewers ML -203
✓
92
89
-3
–
67
69
+2
3▸❄
Guardians @ Twins
8:10 PM
Guardians ML -119
✓
✓
67
75
+8
32
81
91
+10
16▸
White Sox @ Cardinals
8:15 PM
White Sox ML -106
✓
54
54
+0
–
54
62
+8
7▸
Mariners @ Athletics
9:40 PM
Mariners ML -162
✓
86
71
-15
–
36
77
+41
63
Rangers @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -117
✓
70
73
+3
–
50
3
-47
–
Padres @ Giants
10:15 PM
Padres ML -158
✓
83
83
+0
–
77
67
-10
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Pirates @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Cubs ML -190 ✓
✓
85
87
+2
–
61
61
+0
–
Rockies @ Tigers
6:40 PM LIVE
Tigers ML -188 live
✓
91
91
+0
–
72
86
+14
8
Angels @ Nationals
6:45 PM LIVE
Nationals ML -158 live
✓
81
71
-10
–
58
64
+6
15▸
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Mets @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
✓
72
79
+7
–
75
81
+6
11❄
Orioles @ Blue Jays
7:07 PM
Blue Jays -1.5
✓
63
79
+16
22▸
–
–
Astros @ Rays
7:10 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
82
76
-6
–
71
70
-1
–
Royals @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Red Sox -1.5
✓
✓
89
95
+6
8▸
92
100
+8
–
Dodgers @ Marlins
7:10 PM
Dodgers -1.5
✓
✓
86
94
+8
19❄
92
98
+6
15*
Reds @ Brewers
7:45 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
82
94
+12
49▸
–
–
Guardians @ Twins
8:10 PM
Guardians -1.5
✓
59
79
+20
13
–
–
White Sox @ Cardinals
8:15 PM
White Sox -1.5
✓
51
63
+12
–
–
–
Mariners @ Athletics
9:40 PM
Mariners -1.5
✓
✓
72
80
+8
13▸
67
98
+31
40*❄
Rangers @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
✓
48
75
+27
77▸
–
–
Padres @ Giants
10:15 PM
Padres -1.5
✓
70
73
+3
–
–
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Pirates @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Cubs -1.5 ✓
✓
✓
82
86
+4
40▸
91
95
+4
16*❄
Rockies @ Tigers
6:40 PM LIVE
Tigers -1.5 live
✓
✓
85
87
+2
53▸
86
100
+14
9
Angels @ Nationals
6:45 PM LIVE
Nationals -1.5 live
✓
82
84
+2
–
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Mets @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Over 8
84
80
-4
–
83
90
+7
14*❄
Orioles @ Blue Jays
7:07 PM
Over 7.5
89
83
-6
–
70
57
-13
–
Astros @ Rays
7:10 PM
Over 7.5
85
80
-5
–
–
–
Royals @ Red Sox
7:10 PM
Over 8.5
87
86
-1
–
67
81
+14
58▸
Dodgers @ Marlins
7:10 PM
Over 7.5
91
92
+1
–
–
–
Reds @ Brewers
7:45 PM
Over 8
91
91
+0
–
–
–
Guardians @ Twins
8:10 PM
Over 7.5
91
83
-8
–
57
20
-37
–
White Sox @ Cardinals
8:15 PM
Over 7.5
91
94
+3
41▸
83
70
-13
–
Mariners @ Athletics
9:40 PM
Over 10.5
✓
64
69
+5
14▸
55
74
+19
26▸
Rangers @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 8.5
96
95
-1
–
67
67
+0
–
Padres @ Giants
10:15 PM
Over 7.5
96
91
-5
–
50
16
-34
–
Started · closing read (frozen at first pitch)
Pirates @ Cubs
2:20 PM FINAL
Over 8.5 ✓
74
69
-5
–
73
95
+22
41▸❄
Rockies @ Tigers
6:40 PM LIVE
Over 8 live
91
91
+0
–
80
18
-62
–
Angels @ Nationals
6:45 PM LIVE
Over 7.5 live
83
83
+0
–
83
64
-19
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.