🎯 Top plays — both books agree · money outpacing tickets on the same side at Action + Circa
TOTAL
Over 9
Blue Jays @ Astros
AN 56% +32Circa 97% +47
7,234 bets conv 57
TOTAL
Over 8
Cardinals @ Yankees
AN 58% +24Circa 95% +45
7,668 bets
MLML+RL
D-backs ML -118
Padres @ D-backs
AN 55% +4Circa 99% +42
7,987 bets
TOTAL
Over 8.5
Pirates @ Brewers
AN 69% +31Circa 81% +1
7,032 bets conv 51
Reality check from our own data: the loudest agreement/divergence plays tend to be already priced in — the line doesn’t keep moving toward them. Treat these as consensus, not edge, until closing-line value + results confirm them.
⚠️ Signal conflicts · money vs line movement disagree — surfaced, not auto-resolved
Matchup
Market
Money says (splits)
Line movement says (RLM)
Move
Reliability
Giants @ Rangers
SPREAD
Rangers 52% mon
Giants
-200→+170
observed live
Money and line movement disagree on these games — the public/money is on one side while the price moved toward the other. We're not auto-picking a winner yet: which signal to trust is an educated guess until the ledger has enough graded games. pre-capture · unverified means the move only shows up open→now (book-30) and was flat the whole time we watched — likely a stale opener, treat with extra caution.
🧮 Feedback scorecard · captured signals vs actual results — accumulates every completed game to calibrate itself
ML money-fav wins
57%(32/56)
money-favored side won outright
CLV+ · line came our way
68%(38/56)
price shortened toward our side by close
Lay the favorite −1.5
43%(24/56)
favorite won by 2+ runs
Total lean
38%(21/55)
money-favored over/under hit
RLM · fade the public
57%(21/37)
sharp (reverse-line) side won/covered
Movement-conviction band
ML win rate
CLV+ rate
steam
67%(4/6)
100%(6/6)
firm
62%(8/13)
77%(10/13)
build
58%(7/12)
75%(9/12)
flat
52%(13/25)
52%(13/25)
RLM sharp side — by bet type
Win rate
$100 bettor
All RLM
57%(21/37)
+$92
Moneyline
55%(6/11)
+$132
Total · Over
50%(1/2)
−$3
Total · Under
50%(5/10)
−$41
Run line −1.5 (lay fav)
0%(0/1)
−$100
Run line +1.5 (take dog)
69%(9/13)
+$104
3 game(s) excluded from every stat below — closing-line capture was compromised (rollback capture gap), so they'd only add noise: DET@ATH, SF@SD, MIN@SEA.
Sample is tiny (56 games) — do not draw conclusions yet. This ledger accumulates every completed game so the bands calibrate themselves over time. The early pattern worth watching: ML money-fav win% runs low while CLV+ runs high — our reads track the market's closing move even when single-game W/L scatters, which is why CLV is the more trustworthy signal until the win-rate sample grows.
🔄 Reverse line movement · public on one side, line moved the other way
Book
Matchup
Market
Public side (tickets)
Line move vs public
Money gap
Sharp side
Action
Giants @ Rangers
SPREAD
Rangers 70%
-200→+170 sustained
-18
Giants
Action
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 80%
-140→-132 sustained
+3
Blue Jays
Circa
Blue Jays @ Astros
ML
Astros 80%
-130→-124 sustained
+3
Blue Jays
Circa
Rays @ Rockies
ML
Rays 79%
-168→-160 sustained
+11
Rockies
Action
Padres @ D-backs
TOTAL
Under 67%
8.5→9 sustained
-25
Over
Action
Padres @ D-backs
SPREAD
Padres 67%
+140→+159 sustained
-34
D-backs
⭐ Strongest signals · Action + Circa, ranked
Tier
Matchup
Pick
AN mon% (div)
Circa mon% (div)
Why
STRONG
Nationals @ Phillies
Over 9
58 (+23)
()
money 58% vs public tickets 35%; high volume
PREMIUM
Cardinals @ Yankees
Over 8
58 (+24)
95 (+45)
Circa money +45 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 95% of handle here; money 58% vs public tickets 34%; high volume
STRONG
Pirates @ Brewers
Over 8.5
69 (+31)
81 (+1)
money 69% vs public tickets 38%; high volume
STRONG
Dodgers @ Cubs
Over 8
59 (+23)
2 (-23)
money 59% vs public tickets 36%; high volume
PREMIUM
Giants @ Rangers
Giants ML +105
48 (+8)
62 (+17)
Circa money +17 — sharp book agrees; high volume
STRONG
Giants @ Rangers
Over 8
59 (+29)
()
money 59% vs public tickets 30%; high volume
STRONG
Giants @ Rangers
Giants 1.5
48 (+18)
()
high volume
PREMIUM
Blue Jays @ Astros
Over 9
56 (+32)
97 (+47)
Circa money +47 — sharp book strongly agrees; Circa 97% of handle here; money 56% vs public tickets 24%; high volume
STRONG
Rays @ Rockies
Rays -1.5
85 (+23)
48 (-2)
high volume
STRONG
Padres @ D-backs
D-backs 1.5
67 (+34)
()
money 67% vs public tickets 33%; high volume
STRONG
Padres @ D-backs
Over 9
58 (+25)
21 (-29)
money 58% vs public tickets 33%; high volume
💰 Moneyline · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies ML -161
✓
85
81
-4
–
40
18
-22
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees ML -220
✓
✓
88
89
+1
24▸
83
100
+17
25❄
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers ML -150
✓
74
70
-4
–
74
69
-5
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers ML -125
✓
75
81
+6
–
54
11
-43
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers ML -125
✓
60
52
-8
–
55
38
-17
–
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros ML -132
✓
80
83
+3
–
94
40
-54
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays ML -170
✓
79
90
+11
40▸
45
44
-1
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs ML -118
✓
✓
51
55
+4
31▸
57
99
+42
38
📐 Run line · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
ML+RL
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Phillies -1.5
✓
83
67
-16
–
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Yankees -1.5
✓
87
88
+1
26▸
50
28
-22
–
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Brewers -1.5
✓
75
72
-3
–
–
–
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Dodgers -1.5
✓
50
57
+7
–
–
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Rangers -1.5
✓
70
52
-18
–
–
–
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Astros -1.5
✓
78
83
+5
38
–
–
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Rays -1.5
✓
62
85
+23
81▸
50
48
-2
–
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
D-backs 1.5
✓
33
67
+34
66▸
–
–
📊 Totals · both books side by side
Matchup
First pitch
Money-favored pick
Agree
AN bet%
AN mon%
AN diff
AN move
Circa bet%
Circa mon%
Circa diff
Circa move
Move agree
Nationals @ Phillies
6:40 PM
Over 9
35
58
+23
79▸
–
–
Cardinals @ Yankees
7:05 PM
Over 8
✓
34
58
+24
39
50
95
+45
25*
Pirates @ Brewers
7:40 PM
Over 8.5
✓
38
69
+31
51
80
81
+1
5*
Dodgers @ Cubs
8:05 PM
Over 8
36
59
+23
76▸
25
2
-23
–
Giants @ Rangers
8:05 PM
Over 8
30
59
+29
50
–
–
Blue Jays @ Astros
8:10 PM
Over 9
✓
24
56
+32
57❄
50
97
+47
25*❄
Rays @ Rockies
8:40 PM
Under 11.5
67
61
-6
–
67
78
+11
34*
Padres @ D-backs
9:40 PM
Over 9
33
58
+25
55▸
50
21
-29
–
diff = money% − bets% right now (snapshot sharp tell)move = 0–100 movement conviction from the whole path (magnitude + how long it held + building/fading + line confirm − round-trip)sparkline = money%−bets% over all snapshots (the shape)▸ = line moved toward this side (confirm), ▸ = line drifting away✓ Agree = both books' diffs same way now✓ Move agree = both books firm+ conviction (≥45)RL✓ = ML & run-line money on same team
The move score ranks movement quality, not win probability — bands: 25–44 building, 45–64 firm, 65+ steam. It stays uncalibrated until the results + closing-line-value grading runs after tonight's games.
Anti-stale: Action only refreshes splits about every ~45 min, so a 15-min capture repeats each value ~3×. Move is computed on distinct updates, not raw snapshots — a frozen or started/delayed game collapses to one point and can't fake conviction (* = only 1–2 real updates; ❄ = splits frozen recently). Game state, first pitch, delays, and live scores come from MLB's own feed (statsapi), not from the sportsbook clock.
AN = Action Network consensus (% bets = tickets, % money = handle). Circa = sharp book's tickets vs handle via VSiN. Circa runs low volume — its 50/50 and 100/0 reads are often noise, most useful when it agrees with Action. Now also capturing Action opening lines (book 30) and first-pitch times to build closing-line value once games finish. Sharp-money indicators, not guarantees; you place any wagers yourself.